Tuesday 20 November 2018

Nothing lasts forever

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -48pts (1.8%) at 2641. Nasdaq comp' -1.7%. Dow -2.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.0% and -1.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but the November settlement is on track to remain under broken mid/long term supports.




US equities opened very significantly lower, and saw a morning reversal from 2632... just 29pts above the key Oct' low. The afternoon wasn't pretty though, with a new intraday low in the closing hour of 2631, with a 10pt swing to settle at 2641.

Volatility climbed for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 22s.


I'm sure the US President would indeed like lower rates, and if equities remain broadly weak into 2019, we might see the fed panic, and suspend QT and/or cutting rates. THAT... would make for the ultimate sell signal.

Nothing lasts forever...

As the song goes, nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain. October saw bearish monthly closes (at least under my criteria) in most of the US equity indexes. November hasn't been pretty, and with just 6.5 trading days left of the month, its not looking good for the bulls, with the spx on track to settle under the key monthly 10MA.

sp'weekly5 - wave count

I continue to endeavour to (usually) refrain from counting any of what is semi-chaos price action. However, I'll highlight the above legacy chart. If its right... then we have a l/t top. That notion would get dropped on any monthly close back above the monthly 10MA - currently at 2741.

I know I'm not the only out there with a similar wave count. Any thoughts?

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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