VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add.. it was one of those days when despite the sp'500 swinging from a minor opening gain to 1930.. and declining to 1915, the VIX was still unable to rally.
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more later... on the indexes
Thursday, 18 February 2016
VIX remains very subdued
Despite US equity indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling lower for a fourth consecutive day, -3.0% @ 21.64. Near term outlook offers a minor bounce to the 22/23s, but it would seem the sp'1950/60s will equate to VIX back under the key 20 threshold.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add.. it was one of those days when despite the sp'500 swinging from a minor opening gain to 1930.. and declining to 1915, the VIX was still unable to rally.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add.. it was one of those days when despite the sp'500 swinging from a minor opening gain to 1930.. and declining to 1915, the VIX was still unable to rally.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately lower, sp -8pts @ 1917 (intra low range 1930/15). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -0.6%. Near term outlook offers Friday weakness, but broadly, the 1950/60s look due next week. Whether 2K is hit before mid March... is arguably broadly inconsequential.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a lot of micro chop, but with increasing weakness into the close, a new intra low, which bodes in favour of the bears for early Friday.
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The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle is now negative.. and there should (in theory) be slightly more downward pressure across tomorrow morning.
It would seem.. at best.. the sp'1900 threshold - the Wed' opening gap (yellow zone), before resuming higher next week.
The setup for late March/April looks very bearish indeed.
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more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a lot of micro chop, but with increasing weakness into the close, a new intra low, which bodes in favour of the bears for early Friday.
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The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle is now negative.. and there should (in theory) be slightly more downward pressure across tomorrow morning.
It would seem.. at best.. the sp'1900 threshold - the Wed' opening gap (yellow zone), before resuming higher next week.
The setup for late March/April looks very bearish indeed.
-
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - the very subdued VIX
Despite a swing from sp'1930 to 1915, the VIX has remained moderately lower for almost the entire day. For now, there is simply no significant downside power from the equity bears, and even the 1900 threshold is looking a little difficult tomorrow morning. Metals have cooled a little from earlier highs, Gold +$22, with Silver +1.2%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Broadly... its one of those days where its arguably a case of 'turn ya screen off until next Monday'.
So.. 1950/60s.. or around the 2K threshold... it really seems to be one of those two..... with the bigger weekly cycles suggestive of a mid March turn... which would favour the 2K believers.
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notable weakness.. TVIX -2% in the $9.40s.. as there just isn't any real hope of major market upset in the near term. VIX is apparently already settled into 'melting into the weekend' mode.
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My closing post last evening was 'Are we here?'
Zerohedge was leading earlier with 'You are here'.
Hmmmm
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3.09pm.. GDX breaks last Friday's high of $18.85.. by 1 cent... as Gold +$27.
Another wave lower in Gold - and by default... the miners... before hyper-upside this spring.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Broadly... its one of those days where its arguably a case of 'turn ya screen off until next Monday'.
So.. 1950/60s.. or around the 2K threshold... it really seems to be one of those two..... with the bigger weekly cycles suggestive of a mid March turn... which would favour the 2K believers.
--
notable weakness.. TVIX -2% in the $9.40s.. as there just isn't any real hope of major market upset in the near term. VIX is apparently already settled into 'melting into the weekend' mode.
--
My closing post last evening was 'Are we here?'
Zerohedge was leading earlier with 'You are here'.
Hmmmm
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3.09pm.. GDX breaks last Friday's high of $18.85.. by 1 cent... as Gold +$27.
Another wave lower in Gold - and by default... the miners... before hyper-upside this spring.
2pm update - increasing downward pressure
US equities appear increasingly vulnerable into the close.. and across at least the first half of tomorrow. First downside target is the sp'1900 threshold. The lower gap of 1871/64 looks out of range in the near term. Metals have built very sig' gains, Gold +$27, and that is helping the related mining stocks.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
So.. a weakening equity market.. with renewed interest in gold/silver/miners.
Broadly though... its all minor noise. sp'1930 is no more a top than 1810 was a key low.
VIX remains -2% in the 21s... reflecting a market that has no real concern.
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notable strength... GDX, daily
With equities cooling, the precious metals are attracting renewed interest... although it is very likely an unsustainable gain in the near term.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
So.. a weakening equity market.. with renewed interest in gold/silver/miners.
Broadly though... its all minor noise. sp'1930 is no more a top than 1810 was a key low.
VIX remains -2% in the 21s... reflecting a market that has no real concern.
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notable strength... GDX, daily
With equities cooling, the precious metals are attracting renewed interest... although it is very likely an unsustainable gain in the near term.
1pm update - bearish MACD cross
The sp'500 is due to see a bearish MACD cross at the start of the 1pm hour..and it threatens increasing weakness into the close. Right now, a retrace to the sp'1900 threshold looks probable, perhaps 1884.. on an added 'excuse' tomorrow.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Most notable right now is the VIX. which continues to manage to break new cycle lows. Its pretty bizarre, but then.. there is clearly no significant equity downside power.
It'd seem the VIX traders recognise higher levels to sp'1950/60s are indeed due.... regardless of any short term retrace.
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I'm churning on the following...
sp'daily5b
Thoughts welcome.. although I realise some have been saying 2K for many weeks.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Most notable right now is the VIX. which continues to manage to break new cycle lows. Its pretty bizarre, but then.. there is clearly no significant equity downside power.
It'd seem the VIX traders recognise higher levels to sp'1950/60s are indeed due.... regardless of any short term retrace.
--
I'm churning on the following...
sp'daily5b
12pm update - retrace appears underway
Having ramped from sp'1810 to 1930 across just 5 trading days, it would seem a moderate retrace is underway, with a basic target of the 1900 threshold. Oil is causing problems for the main market, swinging from gains of 3% to fractionally negative.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*an equity bearish MACD cross (with a bullish VIX cross) is due within an hour or two, and the algo-bots should be selling into that technical signal
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With Oil inventories showing a net weekly surplus of 2.1 million barrels - very much contrary to the API report, the early oil gains have vapourised, and that is not surprisingly dragging the broader market lower.
The underlying issue of over-supply has not in ANY way been addressed, and it remains utterly laughable that talk of merely stabilising supply is now supposedly bullish for prices.
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VIX update from Mr T.
*seemingly a no-show*
--
time for lunch
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*an equity bearish MACD cross (with a bullish VIX cross) is due within an hour or two, and the algo-bots should be selling into that technical signal
--
With Oil inventories showing a net weekly surplus of 2.1 million barrels - very much contrary to the API report, the early oil gains have vapourised, and that is not surprisingly dragging the broader market lower.
The underlying issue of over-supply has not in ANY way been addressed, and it remains utterly laughable that talk of merely stabilising supply is now supposedly bullish for prices.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
*seemingly a no-show*
--
time for lunch
11am update - are the mainstream getting twitchy yet?
With the market not significantly higher for a fourth consecutive day, some of the mainstream will no doubt be getting a little twitchy. They will (understandably) be asking if sp'1810 was really a key low for the year, or if this recent bounce is just that..... a bounce. Oil is +3.0% ahead of the EIA report... due at 11am.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX breaks a new cycle low of 21.72, which is wrecking hopes of even moderate equity downside this afternoon.
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Clearly, there really isn't any downside power right now.
It could easily be argued though.. we've a short term top... due a retrace - probably no lower than the sp'1900 threshold.
However, the daily cycle remains powerfully bullish, and I'd be concerned about launching any shorts from current levels.
*will update a daily chart later... as I do realise 2K is a threat.... although still looks difficult.
--
Here in London city....
After yesterday's grey horror, today is better.. and yet more cranes are appearing. The London crane index must be close to historic highs... and that usually marks a cyclical peak.
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time to cook
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11.01am: Oil inventory weekly surplus: 2.1 million.... contrary to yesterday's API.
Equities being dragged lower.... sp -7pts.. 1919.. ohh the humanity!
For the moment though.. VIX is NOT confirming... and remains -2.5% in the 21.70s....
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11.25am.. Well... with things as they are... we'll see an hourly MACD bearish cross at 12pm... solidifying a retrace for rest of today. First target is the sp'1900 threshold. Fibonacci would be more suggestive of 1884.
In any case....we ain't closing significantly higher for a fourth day.
VIX is STILL fractionally negative.... pretty bizarre.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX breaks a new cycle low of 21.72, which is wrecking hopes of even moderate equity downside this afternoon.
--
Clearly, there really isn't any downside power right now.
It could easily be argued though.. we've a short term top... due a retrace - probably no lower than the sp'1900 threshold.
However, the daily cycle remains powerfully bullish, and I'd be concerned about launching any shorts from current levels.
*will update a daily chart later... as I do realise 2K is a threat.... although still looks difficult.
--
Here in London city....
 |
| Another day closer to summer |
 |
| Behold.. the rising moon! |
After yesterday's grey horror, today is better.. and yet more cranes are appearing. The London crane index must be close to historic highs... and that usually marks a cyclical peak.
-
time to cook
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11.01am: Oil inventory weekly surplus: 2.1 million.... contrary to yesterday's API.
Equities being dragged lower.... sp -7pts.. 1919.. ohh the humanity!
For the moment though.. VIX is NOT confirming... and remains -2.5% in the 21.70s....
-
11.25am.. Well... with things as they are... we'll see an hourly MACD bearish cross at 12pm... solidifying a retrace for rest of today. First target is the sp'1900 threshold. Fibonacci would be more suggestive of 1884.
In any case....we ain't closing significantly higher for a fourth day.
VIX is STILL fractionally negative.... pretty bizarre.
10am update - opening reversal
US equities open a little higher, but there is a clear reversal (if moderate) underway. Having climbed 120pts across 21 trading hours, a retrace would be natural, with key levels of sp'1900, and the 1871/64 zone. Oil is +2.3% in the $33s.. ahead of the latest EIA report (11am).
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a retrace? VIX has certainly seen a provisional break of the down trend.
At the current rate, the equity hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle will see a bearish cross this afternoon.
Its a tricky situation to call the near term.. but once the weekly cycles max out around mid March.. then it should get straight forward again.
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notable weakness... Discovery (DISCA), daily
Marginal earnings/rev' miss, EPS 34 cents... with $1.58 for the year, which makes for a PE of around 15. Overall, I like the company.... almost as much as DIS.
*in terms of downside, if sp'1600s.. then DISCA $20... which isn't that bold a target at all.
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time for some sun... back soon
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a retrace? VIX has certainly seen a provisional break of the down trend.
At the current rate, the equity hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle will see a bearish cross this afternoon.
Its a tricky situation to call the near term.. but once the weekly cycles max out around mid March.. then it should get straight forward again.
--
notable weakness... Discovery (DISCA), daily
Marginal earnings/rev' miss, EPS 34 cents... with $1.58 for the year, which makes for a PE of around 15. Overall, I like the company.... almost as much as DIS.
*in terms of downside, if sp'1600s.. then DISCA $20... which isn't that bold a target at all.
-
time for some sun... back soon
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at a new cycle high of 1931. Metals are a touch lower, Gold -$2. Oil continues to climb - ahead of the latest EIA report, +2.0% in the $33s.
sp'60min
Summary
So, we're set to open higher for a fourth consecutive day, and the sp'1940s are very viable today.
Bears continue to get ground out of this market.. as the bigger weekly cycles are burning off the oversold condition.
On any fair outlook, the bulk of the gains have already occurred. Its arguably just a case of waiting for a key rollover by mid March.
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Update from a bellowing Oscar
No doubt the Elliot wave people will be especially annoyed with him today.
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Overnight action
Japan: +2.3% @ 16196
China: -0.2% @ 2862
Germany: +1.6% @ 9523
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Have a good Thursday
8.38am.. Phil fed -2.8... another lousy number for the macro-bulls.
Market doesn't care though... sp +5pts 1931.
notable weakness, GDX -1.5%
sp'60min
Summary
So, we're set to open higher for a fourth consecutive day, and the sp'1940s are very viable today.
Bears continue to get ground out of this market.. as the bigger weekly cycles are burning off the oversold condition.
On any fair outlook, the bulk of the gains have already occurred. Its arguably just a case of waiting for a key rollover by mid March.
--
Update from a bellowing Oscar
No doubt the Elliot wave people will be especially annoyed with him today.
-
Overnight action
Japan: +2.3% @ 16196
China: -0.2% @ 2862
Germany: +1.6% @ 9523
--
Have a good Thursday
8.38am.. Phil fed -2.8... another lousy number for the macro-bulls.
Market doesn't care though... sp +5pts 1931.
notable weakness, GDX -1.5%
We are here?
It was another bullish day for the US equity market, with the sp'500 settling +31pts @ 1926. The market has now climbed 116pts across the last 21 trading hours. It has to be asked though... how much higher will this up wave reach.. and will the next down wave break <1810?
sp'weekly8f
sp'monthly3d
Summary
The above chart covers 8yrs.. so I suggest you right click and 'view image' for a closer look.
First... the ultimate issue in my view is whether the current rally stalls.. resulting in a lower high, and then whether the next down wave can break <1810.
Every cycle is unique of course, but the pattern of 2007/08 is unquestionably similar to what we have now.
Just look at the MACD (green bar histogram)...
1. the down cycle flooring in July.... then rally into August
2. a top in late August.
It was with that failure to keep rallying, which then resulted in the market imploding across Sept-November.
In my view.. bears MUST hold the line at sp'2K..... but preferably... no higher than a 50% retrace of the wave from Nov'2015 to last Thursday afternoon.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed', and leading indicators. Also of note, the latest EIA oil report (11am).
*Fed official Williams is due to speak in the late afternoon.
--
Go stare at that for an hour
So... what do YOU make of weekly8f? The pattern is clearly similar.. and the setup from mid March onward into April offers a potential wave to the 1600s.
We are yet to see capitulation in the oil/gas/mining sector. I'm seeking some mid tier listed companies to file for bankruptcy in the coming months. How much that upsets the world capital markets... difficult to say. What does seem absolutely clear though... sp'1810 - with VIX 30 was no capitulation.
Keep in mind, my original outlook is that the sp'500 will hold the double top of 2000/2007.. aka... no lower than 1600 this spring/early summer. The last three days though, should be a reminder to the bears just how powerfully bullish this market can turn.
Goodnight from London
sp'weekly8f
sp'monthly3d
Summary
The above chart covers 8yrs.. so I suggest you right click and 'view image' for a closer look.
First... the ultimate issue in my view is whether the current rally stalls.. resulting in a lower high, and then whether the next down wave can break <1810.
Every cycle is unique of course, but the pattern of 2007/08 is unquestionably similar to what we have now.
Just look at the MACD (green bar histogram)...
1. the down cycle flooring in July.... then rally into August
2. a top in late August.
It was with that failure to keep rallying, which then resulted in the market imploding across Sept-November.
In my view.. bears MUST hold the line at sp'2K..... but preferably... no higher than a 50% retrace of the wave from Nov'2015 to last Thursday afternoon.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed', and leading indicators. Also of note, the latest EIA oil report (11am).
*Fed official Williams is due to speak in the late afternoon.
--
Go stare at that for an hour
So... what do YOU make of weekly8f? The pattern is clearly similar.. and the setup from mid March onward into April offers a potential wave to the 1600s.
We are yet to see capitulation in the oil/gas/mining sector. I'm seeking some mid tier listed companies to file for bankruptcy in the coming months. How much that upsets the world capital markets... difficult to say. What does seem absolutely clear though... sp'1810 - with VIX 30 was no capitulation.
Keep in mind, my original outlook is that the sp'500 will hold the double top of 2000/2007.. aka... no lower than 1600 this spring/early summer. The last three days though, should be a reminder to the bears just how powerfully bullish this market can turn.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed significantly higher for the third consecutive day,
sp +31pts @ 1926 (intra high 1930). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled
higher by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly
bullish, with next resistance to the 1950/65 zone.
sp'daily5b
Trans
Summary
A third day for the equity bulls, with the 'old leader' Trans, leading the way higher. Indeed, the Trans is now set for a fifth consecutive net weekly gain.
Broadly though, this is almost certainly just a powerful bear market rally.
Unless the sp'500 breaks >1970 (2K to be decisive), I have no inclination to change the broader bearish outlook.
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a little more later...
sp'daily5b
Trans
Summary
A third day for the equity bulls, with the 'old leader' Trans, leading the way higher. Indeed, the Trans is now set for a fifth consecutive net weekly gain.
Broadly though, this is almost certainly just a powerful bear market rally.
Unless the sp'500 breaks >1970 (2K to be decisive), I have no inclination to change the broader bearish outlook.
-
a little more later...
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