VIX fractionally higher

With the equity market cooling in the late afternoon, the VIX clawed back to positive, settling +0.9% @ 12.85. Near term outlook offers continued upside into the next FOMC of June 17th, which should equate to VIX remaining within the 15/11 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX' daily3

Summary

*with a touch of equity weakness in the late afternoon, the VIX turned positive, but still... 1% of the 12s remains a very low VIX.
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Suffice to say... market volatility remains very low. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the next FOMC of June 17th.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt @ 2127 (intra high 2133). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the next FOMC of June 17th... at which point the sp'2170s will be viable.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour was a bit of choppy mess... especially the closing minutes, which saw some wacky action in BABA...

5min

I'm not yet aware of the reason why, but that sure was a big closing hyper-ramp.
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As for the broader market... it remains bullish... but with notable weakness in the Transports.
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*I remain short Gold via GLD (currently underwater from the 114s)... seeking an exit in the 113s before the weekend.
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the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the day

3pm update - Transports remain problematic

Whilst the broader market minor gains have flipped to fractionally negative in most indexes, the standout laggard remains the Transports, -0.7% in the 8600s. The current declines are especially notable as Oil is lower by a very significant -4.0%.


Trans, daily

GLD, daily

Summary

*With the USD set to close with sig' net gains for a second day, both the metals and Oil are set to close significantly lower.
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As for the Transports.. it IS a very important index to watch.

Best guess.... the Trans to break UP.. >8800... but clearly.. if  that is not the case.. and the Trans goes much below 8500... it'll be suggestive of broader market weakness.
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notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG -6.6%, with SDRL -4.0%
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3.16pm... first soft support 2120/18 or so.

Ironic that two consecutive red hourly candles merits a mention.

Trans -0.8%... hmmmm


3.33pm.. Someone has hit the sell button on AAPL.... a lot of trades flying though right now...

sp' -3pts 2125.... its all minor so far.


3.54pm.. BABA going crazy UP........... no idea why... I'm watching Eurovision, lol 

2pm update - melting upward

Equities have slipped into algo-bot melt mode, with new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. Despite lower oil, Transports remain notably weak, -0.4%.. stuck under declining resistance of 8800. Metals remain weak, -$16, with Silver -3.1%. WTIC Oil is under USD pressure, -3.9% in the $58s.


sp'daily5

Trans, daily

Summary

Hmm... so.. new highs, but the 'old leader' is certainly not reflecting it.. and remains firmly stuck.

However, lets be clear.. if we see Trans breaking into the 8800s later this week, it'd indirectly suggest sp'2170s are due in mid June.
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notable weakness, GDX -3.1%.. as the metals remain significantly weak.

1pm update - Icahn is on the loose again

Whilst the broader US equity market is seemingly content to remain in chop mode - close to historic highs, the infamous Icahn is on clown finance TV, again touting AAPL as under-valued. Meanwhile, USD is holding sig' gains for a second day, +1.2% in the DXY 95.30s.

A curious character

UUP, daily

Summary

*I will have eyes on UUP as a way to be long the USD... but not at this price.. nor time. I am seeking a renewed wave lower in June/July to 24.00/23.80s. From there, I will be seeking 30/31.
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Little to add on the broader market.

There is NO downside power... and market is arguably just waiting for the next excuse to push into the sp'2140s.
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As for Icahn... I wonder if he has a schedule on his wall at home, on the frequency for him to re-pump certain stocks. I can't blame him... and I do agree with him entirely on AAPL. The valuation of $130s makes no sense, relative to the broader market.

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notable weakness: Copper miners, FXC/TCK, both lower by -4%.. as metals are under pressure via stronger USD.

12pm update - no equity downside power

US equities are holding close to historic highs, sp'500 u/c @ 2129. It should be obvious to most that there is simply no downside power.. as also reflected in a VIX that can't even claw back into the 13s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$17, with Silver -3.4%. Oil is -2.9%


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

Well.. its another rather quiet day in equity land. It seems Mr Market is just waiting for the next excuse to rally into the sp'2140/50s. I would remind anyone of the FOMC minutes.. due tomorrow at 3pm.

USD looks set to hold sig' gains for a second day.. and that should keep the pressure on Oil and the metals into tomorrow.. if not into end month.

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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by a rather sig' -5%

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - strong dollar causing problems

Whilst equities continue to see minor chop in the sp'2130/25 zone, the real action is in commodities. With the USD +1.2% in the DXY 95.30s, metals and Oil are under rather strong downward pressure, Gold -$17, with Oil -3.2%.


GLD, daily

USO, daily

Summary

Gold and Oil are clearly rolling over... and should see at least some degree of further downside across the next few days.
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To be clear though, I do NOT believe the USD has seen a key floor from the March high of DXY 100.71.

UUP ,weekly

It would seem the secondary target of DXY 90/89 looks likely to be hit this summer.. before a key turn... and then the hyper-ramp to the 120s.
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stay tuned!

10am update - opening chop

US equities are seeing some chop to start the day, after the market cooled from pre-market. At best, equity bears might see sp'2120/15. USD is strong, +0.9% in the DXY 95.20s. Gold is under pressure, -$10. Oil is on the slide, -2.4%


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

More than anything, what should remain clear.. there is no sig' downside power. The broader weekly/monthly cycles are both offering the sp'2170s by mid June.

I see a fair few getting overly excited about possible downside, but it seems pointless, as many  are lost in the minor noise... with no appreciation of the bigger picture.
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re: metals. Considering the USD, metals are still holding up rather well. Daily MACD cycle is clearly starting to rollover. First downside target is the 50dma in the GLD 114s... breaking under that will not be easy.
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notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -3.9%, SDRL -5.2%.. as oil prices decline.

strength: BAC +1.0%... although still a sig' amount under the key $18 threshold
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at a new historic high of 2134. USD continues to rally, +0.8% in the DXY 95.00s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$4. Oil is similarly on the slide. -1.8%.


sp'weekly7

WTIC, weekly'2

Summary

*Seen on the weekly cycle, we can clearly see a provisional sign of weakness for WTIC Oil, via a blue candle. A retrace to the 10MA of $55 looks due.
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So... another day for the equity bulls looks due. There is little reason why we won't just keep grinding higher.

First target remains the upper boll' on the weekly cycle... currently in the 2150s, but that will be in the 2160s by end month.

Further.. by the next FOMC of June 17th, the 2170/80s will be viable. That might make for a mid term top. However.... as I will keep highlighting, if the Nasdaq can break >5132... it will bode for the 5200s, and if we see a monthly close in the 5200s, it will likely not stop there.
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notable early movers...

FCX -1.7%.. as copper prices slide
RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -2.5%.. as Oil falls.
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Have a good Tuesday
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8.43am.. Housing starts data came in rather good.. 1.135 million... first bit of reasonable econ-data in what seems like months.

*lightning bolts are starting to rain down around me in London city... on what feels like a autumnal morning... urghh... its even somewhat cold, 9c... aka.. 50s

Nasdaq almost there

The Nasdaq composite saw a net daily gain of 30pts @ 5078, a mere 54pts (1.1%) shy of the March' 2000 high of 5132. A monthly close in the 5200s (whether June, July, or August) would bode for further upside of another 300/500pts to the 5500/700s, before the next realistic chance of a sig' correction.


Nasdaq, monthly'2, 20yr

sp'monthly3c - bare bones

Summary

*I do like to use chart 3c from time to time, if only to highlight just how crazy powerful the current rally is.
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As for the tech', it does look like the Nasdaq comp' will break above 5132 in the near term.

Far more important though (at least to me).. a monthly close in the 5200s should clarify there will be NO correction in the broader market until the Nasdaq can build up at least 10% of buffer room.

It is HIGHLY arguable that 5K is now solidifying as a concrete floor.

The implications are huge...  but I won't go over that right now.. I've covered that issue many times in the past few months.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see housing starts data.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately higher for the third consecutive day, sp +6pts @ 2129 (intra high 2131). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued equity upside to the sp'2170s by the FOMC of mid June.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*Trans remains a clear laggard, but a break above 8800s looks viable later this week. If that is achieved, new historic highs are viable by mid June.
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A third day for the bulls, and in addition to the two new highs in the headline indexes (Dow/Sp'500), even the two leaders showed a litlte upside kick.

Nasdaq comp' looks set to break the March 2000 bubble high of 5132.. and if that is the case, it bodes for further upside across much of the summer.

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a little more later...