VIX continues to cool

It was a day of swings for equities, and it was notable that despite the indexes turning negative, the VIX never turned green, settling -7.5% @ 22.47. Near term outlook offers further equity upside to the sp'1970/90 zone, and that likely equates to VIX <20.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Most notable aspect of the day was indeed the VIX. Despite equities swinging from sp'1947 to 1914, the VIX stayed negative.

Sub VIX 20s look due.. with sp'1960/70s. If 1990s, then VIX could cool to the 18/16s.

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*I've eyes on TVIX-long... but not until next Tuesday... probably from the $6.00s, with VIX 18s or lower.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +15pts @ 1938 (intra range 1947/14). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to sp'1970... possibly 1990s.... before renewed (and in theory) more powerful downside to at least the 1860s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: along with the 2pm candle, the 3pm candle was very definitive, confirming the baby bull flag.
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A day of rather significant swings, and no doubt many were spooked by yet another failure for the market to hold opening gains.

Price action/structure though is different, as we're now consistently trading above the hourly 10MA.

The sp'1950s look highly probable tomorrow... with 1970s due before the long 3 day weekend.

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yours truly remains in patience mode.. waiting like a sniper on the side of a mountain, for the 1970/90 zone to reshort.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - clawing upward into the close

US equity indexes are making a push to turn back positive, as the baby bull flag looks set to play out. By definition, the sp'1950/60s will be viable tomorrow/Thursday. First target of 1970 looks viable this Friday/next Tuesday. New for Oil of $29.93... but currently rebounding >$30.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*baby bear flag on the VIX
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An interesting day in market land.. one where experience does actually count for a lot.

yours truly remains.............. patient.
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notable movers...

AA -9%.. as the market is not fooled by the latest earnings report

CNX -7%.. commodity carnage continues

TVIX -4.5%... crazy intraday swings today.
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3.30pm.. sp +14pts @ 1938... and no doubt the bears are getting short-stopped again.

The 1970s are due... although look out of range tomorrow. More viable on Thurs/Friday.


TVIX -8%... back to the opening level.    What a day !

2pm update - baby bull flag

US equities continue to be choppy, remaining well below the early high of sp'1947. Price structure is a clear baby bull flag, with the 1950/60s probable tomorrow/Thursday.. along with VIX <20. WTIC Oil is battling hard to hold the $30 threshold, so far reaching $30.06.


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*fractional new cycle in the second market leader - R2K.
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Despite a new low in the R2K, the broader market still looks vulnerable to new upside.

Price structure is pretty clear... we'll resume strongly higher tomorrow.. as bears trying to short the market today, will have to cover.

*amusing to see the cheerleaders on CNBC - not least Stephanie Link... even she admitted 'I don't have an idea why we opened higher'.

Yeah Steph'.. you just don't understand.... and no matter how sincere you look at the camera, I ain't buying GPRO or TWTR just because they lost the $20 threshold.

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stay tuned

1pm update - the battle continues

It remains a rather fierce battle, but the equity bulls still look set to win this round. First target remains the sp'1970s. Considering the decline from sp'2081 took around 8 days, the current rally from 1901 will likely take 3-4 days... taking us into opex-Friday/next Tuesday.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Price action/structure look bullish in the near term... but it merely sets up a big bear flag for late January.
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There are a truck load of dynamic movers today... esp' in energy/mining land..

CHK -9.0%
CNX -7.0%
GDX -3.4%
FCX -12.5%.. see my 'fair value' post from last night. FCX is clearly being priced for 'disappearing'

RIG -4.3%
TCK -8.8%

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back at 2pm

12pm update - still set to claw upward

Despite some indexes turning negative, underlying price pressure is likely to favour the equity bulls into next week. Nothing has changed, first target remains the sp'1970 threshold, and that should equate to VIX 19/18s. If sp'1990s.. VIX looks vulnerable to 17/16s.


sp'60min

USO' daily2

Summary

*Oil is -2.3%, the $30 threshold is currently being tested. If fails.. next level is not until $25.
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No doubt a fair few will be real confused at the current price action. Another failed rally.. same as before?

Price action/structure is different... and I see no reason to drop the upside target.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch :)

11am update - shaky gains

The opening gains to sp'1947 have largely evaporated, but the Monday low of 1901 still looks very secure. Price structure into early next week is likely to become a rather large bear flag, and that will open much lower levels into February.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Oil -1.7% in the $30s.. and that is not helping the market mood.
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So..  renewed weakness, but yesterday's low should comfortably low. The daily equity/VIX cycles will remain against the bears into next week.

Despite the weak 10am hour, I have no concerns that I am missing out on the next down wave.

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notable mover...

Alcoa (AA), daily

The market is not buying the rather twisted earnings report.
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time to cook :)
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11.26am... sp' +1pt @1925...  a clear 1% below the earlier level.

Still... nothing has changed... this is chop.. underlying pressure in short term is still.. UP

*notable reversal.. TVIX.. from 7.90 to 8.80s.. back at evens.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, and are already in the sp'1940s. First target remains 1970, and that looks a given, whether by Friday/next Tuesday. VIX is naturally continuing to cool, -9% in the 21s. Oil is bouncing, +2.2% in the $31s. Gold -$10.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Near term outlook is pretty clear, right?

... whilst keeping in mind the bigger bearish weekly/monthly cycles.
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yours truly is more than content to watch this nonsense climb to the 1970/90 zone... at which point it will be time to hit some buttons again.

For those of you long from the 1920/00 zone.... congrats.. and enjoy the ride higher.
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notable movers...

TVIX -9% in the $7.90s, almost a full $3 below the Monday afternoon peak

AAPL +1.5% @ $100

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +17pts, we're set to open at 1940. USD remains broadly strong, +0.3% in the DXY 99.00s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$8. Oil is vainly bouncing, +1.4%.


sp'60min

Summary

Indeed, we have a short term floor of sp'1901... and we might even hit the 1950s today.

The 1970s are an easy target... with 1990s more viable next Tue/Wed.
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early movers..

AAPL +1.9% @ $100
NFLX +1.4% @ $116

TWTR -1.5% @ $20.00
TVIX -7.7% @ $8.10
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Overnight action...

Japan : -2.7% @ 17218
China: +0.2% @ 3022... briefly <3K
Germany: currently +2.4%..@ 10059
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Have a good Tuesday
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8.18am.. bears getting routed, sp +21pts... 1944.

The sp'1600s are coming

The sp'500 saw further weakness, but there is high clarity in a short term floor of sp'1901. The market is set to bounce to the 1970/90s. Sustained action >2K looks out of range. More broadly, there can be high confidence the sp'1600s are coming in the months ahead.


sp'monthly3e

China, monthly

Summary

re: US equities... short term floor... but clearly headed much lower. The sp'1600s look a rather comfortable target. Based on the bigger monthly MACD cycles... prime downside would be April/May. It could be sooner than that though.

re: China. The big bear flag is playing out, as the Shanghai comp' is set to lose 3K, and then headed for the 2500s. Whether a full retrace to 2K... difficult to say.
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Looking ahead

Tuesday has no econ-data of note.

*Fed officials Fischer and Lacker will be speaking, and any talk of 'no rate hike again any time soon' (as Lockhart did today).. would certainly help to inspire a sustained bounce.
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Keeping a leveraged ETN on a short leash

I held TVIX-long across the weekend. Seeing the Sunday night futures recover from the equivalent of sp -18pts to pre-market gains of +13pts... yeah, that wasn't great viewing.

I bailed early from $9.29...  net 8% gain (from Thursday closing hour entry).

Naturally, the market then saw another down wave, with TVIX pushing to $10.80s in the 2pm hour.

TVIX, 60min

From the above hourly chart, it should again be clear... the leveraged 2x or 3x ETNs (and ETFs) are wild things. TVIX imploded by almost 20% in the late afternoon, settling at $8.78, which is close to where I bought it last Thursday!

No doubt the $7s are coming, maybe the 6s . Either way, I'll look to pick TVIX up again, when sp' is trading somewhere in the 1970/90 zone.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1923 (intra low 1901). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. There is high probability that the market has put in a short term floor, with viable upside into the next FOMC of Wed' Jan'27th. The 1990s remain best case for the equity bulls.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

Trans - a new multi-year low of 6820... offering a spike floor. First upside target will be the 7400 level. Sustained action >50dma/7600s... looks out of range.

R2K - breaking the Oct'2014 low of 1040.. spiking from 1031. Viable upside to around 1100.. no higher than 1120s.

sp'500 - short term floor of 1901... set for 1970s... 1990s at most. No daily closes >2k for a long..... long time.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...