Whilst US equities closed significantly higher, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -10.6% @ 16.85 (intra low 16.81). Near term outlook offers threat of a minor equity retrace, but broadly, the market looks bullish into December, and that will equate to a very subdued VIX in the low/sub teens.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Not surprisingly, with equities continuing to rally, the VIX was back on the slide. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the rest of the week... and probably.. month.
The low/sub teens look due... not least if sp'2100s into early December.
US equities closed significantly higher, sp +33pts @ 2083. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.6%. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor retrace, but broadly.. the 2100s look a given, with new historic highs into year end, highly probable.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing action hour: a little chop, but then new intraday highs.. as there is simply no downside power.
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The Monday opening low of sp'2019 is now 3.2% lower... and looks extremely secure.... for this week.. the month.. and probably.. rest of the year.
I have remained of the view higher rates as bullish for the economy/market.. and I see nothing to change that.
The only thing that could (ironically) screw things up is if the Fed do not raise at the Dec' FOMC. The next jobs data will be the last key data point for the maniacs at PRINT HQ to assess.
Right now.. with the market in 'everything is fine' mode... the Fed have an open door to raise.
The FOMC minutes saw an excuse to kick the market to sp'2075.. but there is clear resistance at the price gap zone. The micro 5/15/60min cycles are all due to tick lower, favouring the equity bears into the close... and across Thursday. Oil remains moderately choppy, +0.2%.... as does Gold +$2.
sp'60min
Summary
All things considered... market should decline.. or at least remain under the 2pm hour high of 2075.
Clearly though... the sp'2019 low looks extremely secure... with the 2100s due before month end.
Indeed, a Nov' close anywhere above 2060 would be a second key close above the 10MA.. and bode for straight upside into late spring 2016.
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notable weakness, QCOM -9.8%... as the selling continues.
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3.18pm.. so much for gap zone resistance.. clearly fails to hold the madness.
Next level 2085.
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3.36pm.. sp'2080... so.. that is 61pts (3.0%) since the Monday opening low.
It remains.. a nasty market. Anyone still think we'll see any sustained action <sp'2K before year end?
The FOMC minutes are due, and the algo-bots will most certainly be looking to wash some trading stops. A brief spike to the 2070s is probable.. before threat of downside into the close. With the break above resistance, any such retrace is now limited to the 2040s.. at best.
sp'60min
Summary
... lets see what the algo-bots make of the latest fedspeak.
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notable weakness...
QCOM, daily
A rather severe break of already-broken (Nov' 5th) support of the $52s. On a bigger multi-year perspective, next support is not until the 42/40 zone.
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2.02pm.. a little chop... but threatening to push into the 2070s... as Fed press release suggestive most are looking for a hike at the Dec' FOMC.
... I'll believe it.. when I see it. Not least after the Sept' debacle.
2.12pm.. Well...here are the sp'2070s...
Either it gets stuck here... or bears got even bigger problems than I'm guessing.
2.15pm.. 15mins from typical turn time.
Those day-trading bulls out there... its surely time to tigthen stops... with threat of a reversal.
AAPL looks tired...
2.30pm.. Its typical turn time.... cyclically, equity bears will be favoured into the close... with a short term high of 2075.
US equities are holding borderline significant gains, with the sp' having cleared resistance. There is a clear price gap zone of 2075/72... and with the FOMC min's due at 2pm.. there is threat of a retrace. However, regardless of any such retrace... broader trend remains bullish.
sp'60min
Summary
Price action is again getting real choppy... ahead of the Fed press release.
A brief spike into the gap zone, and then reverse into tomorrow?
More than anything, what should be clear.. 2019 is a core low... and we ain't likely trading under there any time soon. Hell, I am seeing renewed talk of a year end close in the 2200 or 2300s!
US equities achieve a clear break above declining resistance (from the sp'2116 high). Upside to the sp'2070/75 zone looks probable in the immediate term, before renewed threat of cooling. VIX appears headed for the 16.75/16.25 zone. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1. Oil is cooling after inventories, -0.5%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I've added a fib retrace to the hourly cycle. It assumes we'll max out this afternoon, and then cool.
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With the break above resistance, the 2030s are now off the menu. At best.. the 2050/45 zone.
So.. a break through, and the 2019 low looks even more secure.
Anyone heavy short is facing a real problem right now. Gods help them... as the 2100s still look due.. whether a retrace or not.
US equities remain moderately higher, but price action is increasingly choppy, with the sp'500 clearly stuck at resistance in the low 2060s. With only a minor net weekly surplus, Oil is holding moderate gains. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -0.6%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Hourly equity MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick lower, and there remains threat of the sp'2030s this afternoon... the FOMC minutes would be a natural excuse.
The next up cycle in the VIX is threatening a break back above the 20 threshold, but that sure doesn't mean we'll break <sp'2019.
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notable strength: NFLX
Significantly higher for the third consecutive day, as Jessica Jones is another day closer.
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11.16am... .. and resistance breaks.. sp'2064... new intra high.. clear break of trend.
US equities open moderately higher, back in the sp'2060s, but the gains look vulnerable.. not least if the EIA report upsets the Oil market. Metals are seeing minor chop, Gold u/c, with Silver -0.4%. Oil is +1.0% in the $42s.
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
*daily Oil chart is suggestive the down trend is likely ending... even if inventories remain on the high side. The bigger weekly cycle remains outright bearish.
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A move >sp'2065 is clearly important.... and if so.. it merely confirms yesterday was just the market forming a baby bull flag... before resuming higher.
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notable strength: AAPL
If there is one stock the bull maniacs need to see break much higher... its AAPL.
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stay tuned... the EIA report is due at 10.30am...
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10.30am.. net build. 0.25million barrels... one of the lowest in recent months...
Good morning.US equity futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2054. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, whilst Oil is +0.7%.. ahead of the EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
We have an especially interesting day ahead. Oil inventories at 10.30am.. with the FOMC minutes at 2pm. Both should get the market moving... one way or another.
A weekly close in the sp'2070s remains very viable... even if we see 2030s at some point today.
The only thing that would be surprisingly would be a break of the Monday opening low of 2019.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Maloney
Mr M' has some guile appearing as Gold continues to break new multi-year lows. I strongly disagree with much of what he says in this video. There can be no hyper-inflation in the world's reserve currency... and neither is Gold going to 5K, or 50k...any time soon.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: opened higher, but cooled into the close, settling +0.1%
China: unravelling into the close, -1.0% @ 3568
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Shaky internet.
My main internet connection is increasingly unstable, so if I disappear/late posting today.... that is why.
With the USD settling +0.2% @ DXY 99.72, there was renewed upset in the metals market. Copper saw an intra day low of $2.07, the lowest level since May 2009. Gold similarly broke a new multi-year low of $1064, with the giant psy' level of $1000 within range before year end.
Copper, monthly
Gold, monthly'2, fibs
USD, monthly'1
Summary
Suffice to add... the broader down trend from 2011 continues for the metals.
There is ZERO sign of a floor. Copper, Gold, and Silver all look set to fall into 2016.
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re: USD. A monthly close >DXY 100 looks due... far more viable in Dec/Jan. First upside target will be 105, after that, 110, with a grander target of the 120s. The latter is clearly going to take a considerable time though.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see housing starts, the EIA oil report, and the FOMC mins (2pm).
*Fed official Kaplan is due to speak at 12pm... and Mr Market will probably take some notice of that.
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France
I could quite capably write an 80,000 word dissertation on the recent event in Paris, France. Yet... these pages are not really meant for such topics, and I am long resigned to the fact that most people are simply not remotely interested in the finer details, such as the historical background behind such an event.
As someone who lives in the metropolis of London - unquestionably a primary target, I have little concern about my own safety. I'm infinitely more likely to be struck by a London bus, or die by food poisoning.
Of the great many videos that have appeared across the last few days... the following is worthy of highlighting here...
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2050 (intra
high 2066). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.3%
respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further weakness to the
2030s, but the 2019 low should comfortably hold. The sp'2100s look due
into December.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
* the 'old leader' - Trans, remains the laggard in the US market, and that is despite energy/fuel prices remaining low for almost a full year. Does it bode bearish for the broader market into 2016? Hmm
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As for sp', it should comfortably hold the Monday opening low of 2019. A weekly close in the 2070s remains very viable... even if 2030s tomorrow.
