With world capital markets riled by the ongoing Greek crisis, the VIX opened sharply higher, and built powerful gains across the day, settling +35.1% @ 18.94. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness, with next resistance in the 20/21 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*closing hour saw further equity weakness, helping VIX break into the 19s, for the first time since February.
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The bigger VIX weekly cycle has been warning of a break higher since mid May. Today's sustained action >17, has opened the door into the low 20s. As ever though, it will be difficult for the VIX to hold above the key 20 threshold for more than a few days.
More significant VIX upside looks due in the late Aug/Oct' time frame. A move into the 30s looks just about viable... if sp' sees a sig' correction <2K.
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*I exited a long VIX position this morning, will be looking to get involved again in the VIX in August.. and across September.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -43pts @ 2057. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.0% and -2.6% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with next support in the 2060/50 zone, where there are multiple aspects of support. Any failure of 2050... opens a fast move to the giant 2K threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
*a particularly weak closing hour... the seventh consecutive net hourly red candle...
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.. to those short the broader market.. congrats... it has been a long time coming.
Of course... this down cycle will likely end within the next 3-4 trading days.
I'm still looking for the real action in the Aug-Oct' time frame.
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The sp'500 -32pts @ 2069 (intra low 2063), the VIX +29% in the 18.20s, and the lamentations of the cheerleaders on clown finance TV, who are finally starting to realise Greece does not have any money to pay the IMF tomorrow. Yes.. those are indeed three of the best things in life... at least for today!
sp'daily5
VIX'weekly
Summary
*again, a reminder of the bigger VIX weekly cycle.. which shows next resistance is not until the 20/21 zone.. having taken out the 17s this morning.
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Well, an interesting start to a short 4 day week. Regardless of the exact close... a clear victory for the equity bears.
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No doubt... a time to go long is coming sometime soon... but for now... I'm content to watch and see how low we might go in the near term.
notable weakness: USD -0.7% in the DXY 94.80s... as the central banks 'meddle'.
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... updates into the close...
3.12pm.. sp'2065... VIX almost in the 19s... the big 20 threshold will be viable at the Tuesday open.. not least if the sp' is testing the 200dma of 2053. That'd make for a natural bounce zone.. if only for a day or two.
3.18pm.. the overnight futures low of sp'2060 is about to be taken out... along with VIX 19s.... pretty impressive.
Oil -2.3%... I will consider going long Oil across the next few days. if only for a short term day trade, not least as the USD is set to cool to the DXY 92/90 zone.
3.29pm.. notable weakness , INTC -2.0% in the $30.40s... should floor around $29.00 in the current cycle.
sp' -37pts @ 2064.. with VIX 19s hit.
3.40pm.. market battling to hold the overnight futures low of sp'2060....
Here is something... market is now well within range for a straight gap under the 200dma of 2053 tomorrow morning.... and any break <2050... opens a 'fast ride' to 2K.
US equities continue to slip, with the sp' breaking the double floor of 2072... with a new cycle low of 2070, with VIX +26% in the 17.70s. Near term outlook remains bearish, as the market will remain very vulnerable to sporadic 'spooky Greek' news.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
The overnight futures low of sp'2060 looks set to be tested.. whether into today's close.. or tomorrow.
The real issue is whether the 200dma of 2053 will hold.. or if the market can see a more significant down wave to the giant 2K threshold. The latter will certainly not be easy.. but it is a valid target into early next week.
notable weakness: airlines, DAL -2.1%, UAL -2.7%.. as the transports continues to unravel.
tech, INTC, -1.5% @ $30.50... a natural low would be around $29.00
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strength: TLT +2.3%... as bond yields continue to fall
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meanwhile... it is another fine summers day in London...
blue skies for the bears
Permabearish shadow
stay tuned :)
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2.14pm.. sp'2069.... VIX 17.94..... as noted earlier... next VIX resistance is not until the 20/21 zone... which would arguably equate to a test of the 200dma of sp'2053.
notable weakness, USD, -0.6% @ DXY 94.90s.... as the Euro shorts are getting whacked via central bank intervention.
2.23pm.. no floor until at least 2060... ... with VIX open air to 20/21.
Considering the market has a Greek 'missed IMF' payment due.. and the uncertainty of the referendum... things remain a real problem.
notable weakness, Ford, -3.0%.. in the upper $14s.
US equities are continuing to unravel, with the double floor of sp'2072 set to be broken. After that... the overnight futures low of 2060.. and then core support at the rising 200dma of 2053. Sustained action <2050 looks unlikely in the current cycle.
sp'daily5
VIX'weekly
Summary
*I highlight the VIX weekly.. since with the break >17... the next resistance is not until the 20/21 zone.
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Interesting day.. but all things considered, these are still not the degree of declines that some of the bears could have justifiably been seeking today.
The market will remain under high pressure tomorrow and all the way into next week... there is such a high level of uncertainty in the immediate term.
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Notable weakness: USD -0.3% in the DXY 95.10s....
strength: TLT +1.9%... as bond yields naturally fall..
US equities see another wave lower, sp -24pts @ 2077, with VIX +23% in the 17.30s. Next soft support is the double low of 2072, then the futures overnight low of 2060. Primary support is the 200dma.. currently @ 2053. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 95.10s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*with the break above 17, the door is finally open to next resistance in the VIX 20/21 zone.
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Considering the ongoing Greek situation, the current equity declines are only 'somewhat interesting'. Even VIX 17s aren't anything for the bears to get overly hysterical about.
Best guess... sp'2060/50s.. with VIX 20/21.. and then UP... after the July 4th weekend (and no.. that doesn't mean I am saying July 5th will open higher).
Broadly... I still fear one further lunge higher into early August.
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notable weakness: Ford (F), -2.5%.. daily chart looks lousy
BAC -2.5%... still unable to clear key resistance of $18.
US equities remain weak, with threat of renewed downside on any sporadic 'spooky Greek news'. At best, equity bears should be able to briefly venture to the sp'2065/55 zone.. where there are multiple aspects of support. VIX is reflecting some concern, +19% in the 16.70s.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
So... another minor wave lower...
It remains the case that a reasonable cycle low will be in the sp'2060/50s. Sustained action <2050 looks highly unlikely.
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*I am content on the sidelines. Right now, I'd actually consider LONG-oil, via USO... but not until equity indexes look floored.
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US equities open lower, but there is already a rather clear reversal underway, with a classic black-fail candle in the VIX.. having cooled from 16.82 to the 15s. USD is holding minor gains of 0.1% in the DXY 95.50s.. not least held down via central bank meddling.
VIX'60min
sp'60min
Summary
*I EXITED long-VIX at the open.. from the 16.40s.
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So.... we're off and running.. but for the bears.. the open is a disappointing one.. with a clear reversal.. as reflected most clearly in the VIX.
The bigger VIX weekly cycle had clear resistance in the 16/17s.. and we're clearly stuck.
I am open to renewed equity weakness... but for this morning... bears should have probably already closed out.
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10.05am. notable strength: CHK, +2.0% @ $11.30s.. with nat' gas +1.1%... still looks headed <$10 by late Sept.
Good morning. Equity futures are significantly lower, sp -22pts, we're set to open at 2079.. although that is a considerable way above the overnight low of -41pts @ 2060. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 95.60s. Metals are catching a fear bid, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is -2.5%.
sp'daily5
Summary
We have a very dynamic week ahead.
Not surprisingly, futures have recovered half of last nights initial declines.. as some 'meddling' is going on from various central banks - not least the Swiss.
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Lets get one thing clear though...
The Greeks do not have the money to cover the payment to the IMF tomorrow.
The ECB are currently (who knows if they'll change their mind).. said they will pull the bank liquidty program if a payment is missed. In theory, the Greek banking system will implode to zero as of midnight Tuesday.
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In terms of equity price action...
Primary target should be the 2060/50s.. where there are multiple aspects of support. Sustained action <2050 looks difficult in the current cycle.
Eyes on the VIX.. which will be prone to getting stuck in the 16/17s. I do not expect the 20s in the current cycle.
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notable early moves..
Bonds, TLT +2%.. as yields drop.
TWTR -1.8%
BAC -1.5%
TVIX/UVXY +14%
VXX +7%
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Update from a moderately bearish Oscar
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Doomer chat... Hunter with Pento
As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Overnight Chinese action: more crazy swings... from +1.5%.. to -2%.. evens.. then (limit down) -10%... settling -3.3% @ 4053. The 3400s look on track.
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Have a good Monday
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7.42am... sp -20pts... 2081...
What am I doing?
Well, I don't have an index short block, but I am long VIX.. which I will strongly consider dropping early this morning. Depending on market mood/price action, I would consider a re-long VIX in the afternoon.
VIX'daily3
I find it difficult to see the VIX going much above 16/17.
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notable weakness, NFLX -1.8% @ $640... a long down from the recent $706 high... headed for $600.. if not 525/500 by late Sept/Oct.
8.23am.. sp -20pts... 2081. Clearly... the recent double low of 2072 should be first target this morning.. along with VIX 16/17s.
With unquestionable central bank meddling, the USD is u/c @ DXY 95.50s.
US equity futures remain very weak, sp -29pts, we're set to open at 2072. Across in Asia, the Japanese Nikkei is -400pts (-2.0%), whilst the Chinese Shanghai comp is seeing some strong swings, from +1.5%, to -2.0%... but currently flat.
spdaily5
Summary
*commodities are mixed. Gold +$7, whilst Oil -1.4%.
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Well, its getting kinda late.. and I'm starting to fade... unless there is a dramatic move one way or another in the next hour or two... I'm calling it a night.
Goodnight from London
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*back at the Monday open... although for me, that means the first post sometime around 8.30am EST
US equity futures remain significantly lower, sp -33pts @ 2068 (intra low -41pts @ 2060). Most notable recent headline... the Greek banking system will be shut until at least Mon' July 6th... after the referendum vote. Yet... once the ECB cut the bank liquidity program... any vote is effectively pointless.
sp'daily5
Summary
We're set to open with one of the biggest declines in recent years... but as ever.. the issue will be can such downside be sustained?
I see a lot of talk about whether some 'help' will appear to fund the IMF payment due on Tuesday... but that seems extremely unlikely.
The ECB have made it quite clear... if the IMF payment is missed, the bank liquidity program will be terminated.
.. and if that program is ended... the entire Greek banking system will instantly implode to ZERO.
US equity futures remain significantly lower, sp -34pts @ 2067 (intra low -41pts @ 2060). Asian markets are in the process of opening. China looks vulnerable to falling <4K, despite a cut in rates and the bank reserve requirement.
sp'daily5 - anticipated open.. via futures
sp'weekly'2, rainbow
Summary
Sustained action under the lower weekly bol' - which will be around sp'2060 at the Monday open, will be difficult.
Here is a major problem though for the bull maniacs. It is not like Greece are going to pay on Tuesday.
Regardless of any intraday bounce tomorrow....the week looks pretty damn rough....
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awaiting Japan... and then China....
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8.10pm.. Major update...
Greek govt' state the banking system will be CLOSED until July 6th.
NO BANKING until after the planned referendum!
As things are.. I'm somewhat sceptical they'll even bother with the public vote, if the ECB do terminate the liquidity program.
