Lets take our monthly look at ten of the big world markets
Greece
The Greek market is stuck in what is a key resistance zone of the 1200s. Rising support is around 1100 or so. A break to 1000 is likely this summer, and that is a good 20% lower.
Brazil
The Bovespa is currently higher for the second consecutive month, but remains pretty vulnerable to slipping back under the big 45000 threshold, from there, another 5000pts lower to 40k looks very viable.
France
The CAC is still broadly climbing, but underlying MACD (green bar histogram) is ticking lower for the 6 or 7th month. Price momentum is weakening, and the CAC is vulnerable to a multi-month down cycle within the next 2-3 months. Primary downside would be 3500.
Germany
The European economic powerhouse - that is Germany, has seen its equity market stuck for the last six months. The big 10k level looks out of range this side of the summer. Primary downside for the bears remains 8k.
UK
Price structure on the FTSE sure is a choppy cluttered mess (although with an upward trend), and it is notable that the UK market is yet to break the historic highs seen in 1999. Underlying MACD cycle is set to go negative in the immediate term.
Spain
Despite an economy that has largely collapsed - I'd refer anyone to the depressionary unemployment levels, the IBEX continues to battle upward. There is going to be clear resistance in the 11-12k zone. Best case downside this summer would be around 8k.
USA
The mighty Dow is looking stretched, but price action is still broadly bullish. The 16700/800s look viable in the very near term. 17k looks just about viable, but a major rollover looks likely..no later than mid June. Primary downside is 14k. Anything <12k looks completely out of range this year.
Italy
The Italian market is just under key resistance of the 22000s. A very natural pull back down to 18000 looks very viable this summer. Underlying price momentum remains very strong though, and even if there was a rollover this month, it will take at least another 4 or 5 months to go negative cycle.
Japan
The Nikkei continues to struggle, and is now around 10% lower since the start of the year. Underlying MACD cycle has turned negative, we have a bearish cross,and outlook is bearish for the summer. First downside is 12k..secondary target is the huge 10k threshold.
China
The China market continues to trade within an exceptionally tight trading range...hovering around the 2k threshold. Best case upside late 2014 - but more likely in 2015, looks to be 2400, with a secondary level of 3500.
Summary
Taken as a collective, we have a world equity market that is still generally battling to the upside, but price action sure is getting a little bearish. What remains particularly remarkable is how the ugly EU PIIGS - especially Italy and Spain, are still broadly climbing.
Looking ahead
The week begins with PMI and ISM services data. There is intl. trade data on Tuesday.
Wed/Thursday, Yellen is due to speak, which I believe will get very heavy coverage across the financial TV networks. The week concludes with wholesale trade data.
Aside from whatever the CEO of Print central might say, it is set to be a pretty quiet week.
*there is sig' QE-pomo: Mon' and Friday, both around $2bn. Although yes, it is notable that the days of $5bn pomo are now past.
--
Permabear battling onward
I suppose it could be worse, I could be losing money on the short side. Instead, I'm in somewhat underwater positions on the long side. I have endeavoured so hard lately, and I'm pretty tired of waiting for a 'grand turn' in this market, even a mere pull back of 10-15%..never mind anything more.
The near term trend - at least on the weekly charts, is still suggestive of sp'1900s..so I am reasonably content to be on the long side across this weekend. However, the higher we go..the more tempting it will be to switch to the short side. As things are, I think bears will get at least a few weeks of warning - via sideways 'toppy chop', before any major down wave begins.
back on Monday :)
