Saturday 21 July 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.85% (Trans), +0.58% (R2K), +0.16% (nyse comp'), +0.15% (Dow), +0.02% (sp'500), to -0.07% (nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook offers brief cooling, but broadly bullish into late summer.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


The sp'500 managed a gain of 0.5pts (0.02%) to settle at 2801. Note the 10MA at 2756, that will offer support in the 2760s next week. Upper bollinger will be offering the 2900s by late August.

Best guess: with opex out of the way, s/t downside of around 1.5% to the 2760s. Broadly though, new historic highs (>2872) look due in August. Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, which is where the market will very likely get stuck.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq was the laggard this week, settling -0.07% at 7820, but did achieve a new historic high of 7867. Upper bollinger will be offering the 8000s into end month.


The mighty Dow settled +0.15% at 25058. Note upper bollinger resistance in the 25500s. Further, note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is set to turn positive before end month. In theory, there is a realistic upside of 5-7 weeks, which will take us into early September.

NYSE comp'

The nyse settled +0.16% at 12789. Weekly price momentum has turned net positive for the first time since late January. This is a subtle, but rather bullish sign for the broader market this summer.


The R2K saw a moderate gain of 0.58% to 1696. New historic highs look viable within 1-2 weeks.


The old leader - Transports, was the leader this week, with a very significant net gain of 1.85% to 10741. Price momentum should turn positive by early August. WTIC/fuel prices remain a concern, and whilst I expect that to be a drag on the tranny, it doesn't mean the index will be net lower.


Five indexes were net higher, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

Whilst a brief cooling wave is a threat next week, more broadly, most indexes look set for new historic highs by September.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently +13.3%. The NYSE comp' is the laggard, -0.1%.

Looking ahead

A busy week is ahead, not least with a truck load of corp' earnings, notably: GOOGL, FB, AMZN, INTC, XOM, and TWTR.

M - Existing home sales
T - FHFA house price index, Richmond Fed'
W - New home sales, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, Durable Goods Orders, Intl' trade
F - Q2 GDP (first print), consumer sentiment.

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.