Whilst equities ended the week on a very positive note, the VIX saw a somewhat mixed day, settling +0.1% @ 14.46 (intra low 13.24). Near term outlook is for further equity upside into the next FOMC of Oct'28th, before a retrace is possible. However, VIX 20s look out of range for the remainder of October.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*a net weekly decline of -3.9%
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Suffice to add... today saw another new cycle low, and there seems little reason why we won't see the 12s next Tue/Wed... if briefly.
On balance, an equity retrace looks increasingly probable from next Wed/Thursday onward.. but it won't likely be particularly significant. Right now.. VIX 20s look out of range in the next equity down cycle.
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*I have ZERO interest in being long volatility for the remainder of the year.
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US equities closed significantly higher for the second consecutive day, sp +22pts @ 2075 (intra high 2079). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside into the next FOMC of Oct'28th, before next opportunity of an equity retrace.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a touch of natural 'cash in gains' selling into the weekend
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... and another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to an end.
IT was the fourth week in favour to the equity bull maniacs.
For now.. there seems zero reason to short the main market... not least ahead of the FOMC.
It has to be said, the bigger weekly cycles are offering upside of another 2-3 weeks.. and at the current rate, that will offer new historic highs in some (certainly not all) indexes, in November.
Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week
All US equity indexes are set to close the week on a very positive note, with the sp'500 set for a net weekly gain of around 2.3%. The next FOMC of Wed' Oct28th will offer first opportunity for a reversal... although the first reading of Q3 GDP might be a far more bearish factor.
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Little to add.
Equity bulls are set to achieve the fourth consecutive net weekly gain.. with an even more important weekly close above the 200dma for the sp'/Dow/Nasdaq.
Unquestionably... bullish.
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notable strength...
NFLX, daily
Although yes, NFLX remains a stock that is broadly struggling. At best... maybe a brief foray into the earnings gap zone.. up to $110.
Regardless of the stock... I am most certainly looking forward to the next Marvel (owned by DIS) series...
US equities see renewed strength into the weekend, with the sp'500 swinging from 2062 back into the 2070s. As things are, we're set for a net weekly gain of around 2.0%. USD continues to build gains, +0.8% in the DXY 97.10s, with price structure of a giant bull flag.
sp'weekly1b
UUP, weekly
Summary
The price action/structure merits a lot of discussion, although I realise many just don't care... at least yet.
I merely highlight it as a reminder, despite what some of the 'dollar doomers' continue to proclaim, the USD is king of FIAT land. That ain't changing any time soon.
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Naturally, here in London city, a little darker.. ever earlier...
Depressing... at only 1pm EST. I probably should get one of those light boxes before I take a bath with a toaster.
The Nasdaq comp' remains significantly higher, +97pts @ 5017. Indeed, equity bulls are set for a weekly close above the giant psy' level of 5K. USD is holding +0.7% in the DXY 97.00s.. and that continues to keep the downward pressure on Oil and the metals.
Nasdaq, daily
Summary
Nothing to add.
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notable strength...
AAPL, daily
+2.7%, in the $118s... making a play to break back into the 120s.. ahead of earnings.. due next Tuesday (I believe)
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The sp'500 has cooled from an early high of 2077 to 2063. Currently... that still makes for a very sig' net weekly gain of 33pts (1.6%). USD is building gains, +0.6% in the DXY 97s. Metals remain under natural pressure, Gold -$4, whilst Oil -2.1%
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Little to add.
On no basis can anyone have the audacity to start getting overly excited that we've seen a cycle top.
It is SAME people who were bearish within the 1900/1950 zone.. and they are STILL at it.
It is remarkable that despite another set of decisive bullish technical breaks, the bearish chatter continues in some places. The current net monthly gain is an extreme 151pts, a truly mighty 7.9% . Yet still.... there is chatter of a 'blow off top'... 'reversal underway'.
sp'monthly3
Summary
Trading above the monthly 10MA.
An outright bullish green candle... negating almost all of the weakness from May-August.
... and yet.. the bearish chatter is out there. Simply... crazy.
*ohh, and Nasdaq comp'... back above the giant 5000 threshold.
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notable weakness... Oil
USO, weekly2
With the USD pushing upward.... Oil is not able to be part of the broader market bull party... and I'm no longer involved in that mess.
With the sp'500 and Dow following the Nasdaq comp' in breaking above their respective 200dmas, another tranche of equity bears are capitulating. With the USD +0.6% in the DXY 96.90s, commodities are under natural pressure, Gold -$4, with Oil -2.4% in the $44s.
sp'daily5
Dow, daily
Nasdaq, daily
Summary
There is a great deal to cover this morning... not least in commodity/currency/bond land, but ... I can't cover it all.
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Suffice to add... we have decisive breaks in three of the main indexes. The weekly cycles are now outright bullish. The monthly cycles.. well, now its just a case of where we close next Friday.
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notable strength
FB +2%... breaking above the giant $100 threshold...
TWTR +3.5%... back in the $30s... ahead of earnings
AAPL +1.6% in the $117s....
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To those still resolutely holding short from a few weeks ago... you don't have my sympathy. There is no excuse. The levels were pretty clear.
The biggest bearish case is utterly destroyed. ... ohh, but even now, I'd imagine some of you can't accept it.
Good luck with that level of denial.
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10.11am... USD...
UUP, weekly
Giant bull flag... close to being confirmed. If so.. metals/Oil are in dire trouble.
Good morning. US equity futures are striving for another day of significant gains, sp +22pts, we're set to open at 2074... decisively above the 200dma. The bigger trend has turned back toward the equity bulls... there is no doubt about it.
sp'daily5
Summary
A viciously bullish open is due.... above core resistance on a number of indexes.
A powerful net weekly gain is due.
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early movers
Pandora (P) -32% @ $13, a real mess... paying money for old music.
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AMZN +10%
GOOG + 10%
MSFT +10%
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Overnight action
Japan: +2.1% @ 18825
China: 1.3% @ 3412... a weekly close in the 3400s... very bullish
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Have a good Friday
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8.58am, with the USD continuing to climb, +0.4% in the DXY 96.80s... commodities are mixed....
Gold +$10.. , Oil -1.0%, the latter of which now has a very bearish weekly candle.
US equity indexes saw rather important net daily gains, with the sp +33pts (1.7%) @ 2052. The bigger weekly index cycle now has a bullish MACD cross, whilst the giant monthly cycle is flashing an outright bullish green candle, above key resistance of the 10MA. This is no bear market.
sp'monthly3b
sp'weekly7
Summary
With 6 trading days left of October, we're net higher by a rather extreme 132pts (6.9%). The green 'rainbow' candle is highly indicative that the market is not going to see any further significant weakness before year end.
The break above the 10MA (2047) is a further powerful bullish sign.
Equity bulls should be absolutely relieved with recent price action. Even if the market was to cool to the 1950s in Nov/early Dec, it would not do enough to give any credence to a broader bearish outlook.
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re: weekly chart. The third consecutive green candle... with a bullish MACD cross. There is nothing bearish there.
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Update from a renewed bullish Oscar
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Looking ahead
Friday will see PMI manu' data.
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181pts in 18 days
Effectively, we've climbed almost 10% since the marginally higher low of sp'1871. On any basis, this is a powerful move, and the fact we've surpassed the last FOMC high of 2020, should have long quelled any remaining bearish chatter.
No doubt a few of you out there are still looking for renewed significant downside. I only ask... aren't you looking at the price action lately? Aren't you looking at the resistance levels that are systematically being broken back above?
For now, I am on a no-shorts policy... and with any monthly close above the 10MA, I'll hold to that until the end of next spring.
US equities closed significantly higher, sp +33pts @ 2052. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.5% and 0.8% respectively. Near
term outlook is for continued upside into the next FOMC (Oct 28th)...
and if the market likes what the Fed has to say... a straight run to the
sp'2100s.
sp'daily5
Dow
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
Most notable today, the Nasdaq comp' which was the first index to break above the 200dma (intra high 4926).
Broadly.. all other indexes look set to test their respective 200dmas... and break above.
