Saturday 26 November 2016

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a third week of upside for the US equity market, with net weekly gains ranging from 2.4% (R2K), 2.1% (Trans), to 1.4% (sp'500, Nasdaq comp'). November is due to settle very bullish, and despite a rate rise coming at the next FOMC of Dec'14th, the market looks very strong into early 2017.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


A third consecutive net weekly gain of 31pts (1.4%), with a new historic high of 2213. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for a third week, and is set to turn positive at next Monday's open.

Upper weekly bolllinger is currently at 2215, and that will act as strong resistance across the next few weeks. The key 10MA is now in the 2150s, and will be first support around 2190/2200 by year end.

Best guess: leaning higher into early December, a retrace to the 50dma in the 2160/70s by mid December, as the fed raise rates. From there, renewed upside into year end, to around 2230/40s. 

Equity bears have nothing to tout, unless a break of rising trend, which at end Dec', will be around 2150. Any price action <2100 looks unlikely for at least six months.

Nasdaq comp'

The tech managed a net weekly gain of 1.4%, with a new historic high of 5398. Underlying MACD is set for a bullish cross next week. A year end close near 5500 is within range. Mainstream talk of the 6000s is (ironically) still yet to begin.


The mighty Dow climbed another 284pts (1.5%), with a new historic high of 19152. A move to the giant psy' level of 20k seems a given. Based on price structure spanning the past few years, it is not a stretch to target 25/26k in 2017.

NYSE comp'

The master index continues to play catchup, with a net weekly gain of 1.6%, now in the 10800s - the best level since early Sept'. The 11k threshold is in range before year end. From there, the May 2015 historic high of 11254. The 12000s seem viable by late spring 2017.


The second market leader - R2K, climbed another 2.4%, with a new historic high of 1347. This makes for a three week hyper-ramp of 191pts (16.5%). Upper bollinger is at 1317, this week's close is a full 30pts above, and that is exceptionally unusual. First soft support is the 1300/1290 zone. A year end close in the 1400s is just about within range, and that would make for one insanely bullish yearly close.


The 'old leader' - Trans, settled net higher for a fourth consecutive week, +2.1% @ 9044, the best level since March 2015. The Nov'2014 historic high of 9310 is (bizarrely) now within range before year end. First support will be the 8600s, where the rapidly rising 10MA will soon be.


A third consecutive week of gains, with new historic highs for the Dow, sp'500, R2K, and Nasdaq comp'.

The market laggards, NYSE comp', and Trans, are set to break new historic highs within 1-2 months.

Ongoing price action remains very strong, with the market arguably having already priced in one, if not two rate hikes.

With the uncertainty of the election out of the way, the US market appears set to comfortably battle through a rate hike, and continue higher into Jan/Feb' 2017.

Looking ahead

M -
T - GDP (1st rev'), Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, EIA report, Fed beige book
T - weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction
F - monthly jobs

*there is a light sprinkling of fed officials, notably Powell on Wednesday, the topic 'understanding fedspeak'. Hmm

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will appear Mon' 7pm EST.