VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very subdued. The key 20 threshold looks very much out of range for some weeks... probably until mid/late May at the earliest.
--
more later... on the indexes
Thursday 19 March 2015
VIX fractionally higher
With equities seeing a moderate retrace of the Wednesday hyper-gains, the VIX clawed upward, settling +0.7% @ 14.07 (intra high 14.87). Near term outlook offers the sp'2120/30s in April, which will likely equate to VIX trundling sideways within the 15/11 range.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very subdued. The key 20 threshold looks very much out of range for some weeks... probably until mid/late May at the earliest.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very subdued. The key 20 threshold looks very much out of range for some weeks... probably until mid/late May at the earliest.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -10pts @ 2089 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook is for broad upside into the sp'2120/30s by mid April.
sp'60min
Summary
So.. a relatively quiet day... but one which was very much a standard and natural retrace of the Wednesday afternoon hyper-ramp.
Tomorrow is quad-opex, so.. it will be choppy.. but with the daily cycles as they are.. a weekly close in the sp'2100s is very viable.
On no basis.. is the setup currently favouring the equity bears.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
So.. a relatively quiet day... but one which was very much a standard and natural retrace of the Wednesday afternoon hyper-ramp.
Tomorrow is quad-opex, so.. it will be choppy.. but with the daily cycles as they are.. a weekly close in the sp'2100s is very viable.
On no basis.. is the setup currently favouring the equity bears.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - resuming upward
US equities remain somewhat choppy, but a daily close in the sp'2090s is very viable... along with VIX in the 13s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1. Oil remains in collapse mode, -3.6%, as the USD rallies, +0.8% in the 99.30s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Notable weakness, energy stocks, BTU -4.7, CHK, -4.5%, RIG -6.9%
--
I'm glad for a quieter day.... back at the close.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Notable weakness, energy stocks, BTU -4.7, CHK, -4.5%, RIG -6.9%
--
I'm glad for a quieter day.... back at the close.
2pm update - chop chop
US equities are seeing some considerable chop, after what remains a starkly powerful post FOMC ramp. A weekly close in the sp'2100s remains very viable.... regardless, the notion of renewed weakness under the 50dma (2063) looks extremely unlikely. Oil.. and metals remain weak.. and King $ resumes higher.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.
No excuses today.. everyone had a chance to either go/add longs.. and/or exit remaining equity index shorts.
Tomorrow is opex.. which typically would offer more chop.. .but regardless... upside into April is the outlook.
--
back at 3pm
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.
No excuses today.. everyone had a chance to either go/add longs.. and/or exit remaining equity index shorts.
Tomorrow is opex.. which typically would offer more chop.. .but regardless... upside into April is the outlook.
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - waiting for a turn
US equities remain moderately weak, but a turn is now due, after what was just a natural retrace of the Wed' hyper-ramp. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$2. Oil is back on the slide, -4.5%.. the rallying USD is no doubt putting renewed pressure on $ denominated assets.
sp'15min
vix'60min
Summary
*VIX is a real mess... today's equity declines are not being reflected... market is not concerned.. with the FOMC out of the way.
--
Little to add... on what is just a natural retrace.
--
Equity bulls should be content with any daily close above sp'2080... the 2090s would be a bonus.
-
Notable weakness: energy stocks, BTU -5%, CHK -4%, RIG -6.5%
sp'15min
vix'60min
Summary
*VIX is a real mess... today's equity declines are not being reflected... market is not concerned.. with the FOMC out of the way.
--
Little to add... on what is just a natural retrace.
--
Equity bulls should be content with any daily close above sp'2080... the 2090s would be a bonus.
-
Notable weakness: energy stocks, BTU -5%, CHK -4%, RIG -6.5%
12pm update - a little lower
US equities continue to slip... if very slowly... and consistantly. Market looks set to floor in the near term... next support is the 50% fib retrace around sp'2084. VIX is showing little market concern, +4% in the 14.60s. Metals remain weak, Gold u/c... whilst Oil -3.3%
sp'15min
sp'60min
Summary
So.. the double low (seen best on 5min cycle) @ sp'2090 did not hold... and we're now set to floor somewhere in the 2085/80 zone.
On no basis does sustained trading <2080 look likely in near term.
--
VIX update from Mr T.. where Basketball appears far more important today.
-
time for tea.
sp'15min
sp'60min
Summary
So.. the double low (seen best on 5min cycle) @ sp'2090 did not hold... and we're now set to floor somewhere in the 2085/80 zone.
On no basis does sustained trading <2080 look likely in near term.
--
VIX update from Mr T.. where Basketball appears far more important today.
-
time for tea.
11am update - retrace almost complete
US equities remain moderately lower, with a high probability of a market floor around sp'2086/84 within the immediate term. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5. Oil remains in collapse mode -4.3%. VIX remains relatively subdued in the 14s.
sp'15min
Summary
*as ever... I adjust/refine.. as necessary all targets... not least as price action/structure suggest
--
Best guess.. a simple ABC retrace... which in theory.. should level around the 50% retrace of 2084.
A weekly close in the sp'2100s now looks increasingly probable.
-
Notable weakness: energy stocks, CHK -4%, BTU -1.5%, RIG -5.0%
-
11.01am... Viable double floor on the 5min cycle.... that could be it.... even 2085 now looks difficult.
In any case... after yesterdays gains, door is wide open into the 2120/30s.
11.23am... Market appears to have put in a double floor of sp'2089/90.... at the 38% retrace.
Now its merely a case of how high we climb..... it is notable that the R2K is already positive.
11.33am.. Hmm.. fractional new low... so.. the 50% fib retrace (sp'2084) is viable (again)...
Notable weakness: AAPL, --0.5% in the $127s.... but looks headed for 130s...
sp'15min
Summary
*as ever... I adjust/refine.. as necessary all targets... not least as price action/structure suggest
--
Best guess.. a simple ABC retrace... which in theory.. should level around the 50% retrace of 2084.
A weekly close in the sp'2100s now looks increasingly probable.
-
Notable weakness: energy stocks, CHK -4%, BTU -1.5%, RIG -5.0%
-
11.01am... Viable double floor on the 5min cycle.... that could be it.... even 2085 now looks difficult.
In any case... after yesterdays gains, door is wide open into the 2120/30s.
11.23am... Market appears to have put in a double floor of sp'2089/90.... at the 38% retrace.
Now its merely a case of how high we climb..... it is notable that the R2K is already positive.
11.33am.. Hmm.. fractional new low... so.. the 50% fib retrace (sp'2084) is viable (again)...
Notable weakness: AAPL, --0.5% in the $127s.... but looks headed for 130s...
10am update - just a retrace
US equities open moderately lower, and a natural retrace of the Wednesday hyper-ramp is well underway. Market looks set to floor somewhere in the 2090/80 zone... before resuming back into the 2100s. Metals are weak, Gold -$6. Oil has resumed collapse mode, -4.7%
sp'15min - fib retrace
sp'daily5
Summary
Without question, this is just a minor retrace.
Everyone is getting another chance to re-position... whether to go long.. or to exit any remaining equity shorts.
On any basis, market will have floored by 2.30pm... or sp'2080... whichever comes first.
--
Notable weakness, energy stocks, RIG -5%.... and if Oil loses $40. then new lows are due.
10.27am.. increasingly looks like market will floor around 2086/84.. by 11am.... and then UP.
Regardless... the 50dma looks secure... we ain't going under there any time soon.
sp'15min - fib retrace
sp'daily5
Summary
Without question, this is just a minor retrace.
Everyone is getting another chance to re-position... whether to go long.. or to exit any remaining equity shorts.
On any basis, market will have floored by 2.30pm... or sp'2080... whichever comes first.
--
Notable weakness, energy stocks, RIG -5%.... and if Oil loses $40. then new lows are due.
10.27am.. increasingly looks like market will floor around 2086/84.. by 11am.... and then UP.
Regardless... the 50dma looks secure... we ain't going under there any time soon.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2095. Metals are back on the slide, Gold -$10, as the USD recovers after yesterdays AH flash crash to DXY 94s. Oil is back in collapse mode, -4.5%.
sp'60min
Summary
After yesterday.... I'm somewhat burned out... so... will be taking today somewhat a little 'lighter'.
Suffice to say... a minor retrace looks likely into 11am.
Primary target is around sp'2090, which is 16pts below yesterdays high.. that would be pretty natural. The secondary is 2080... but I find that a little out of range.
-
*AAPL begins trading today in the Dow... having replaced T (AT & T).
--
Update from Mr C.
Oscar has been especially loud, arrogant, and pretty annoying lately.... but I can't just ignore him for those superficial reasons. His calls are always worth listening to.
re: Oil to $30.... yes.. that makes sense, and would make for one hell of a buying zone... not least for those energy stocks.
-
Good wishes for Thursday
-
9.35am... sp'2092... faster we fall... better chance of 2085/80... although that seems more likely on a secondary wave around 2.30pm... than by 11am.
In any case.. it is just a retrace.
sp'60min
Summary
After yesterday.... I'm somewhat burned out... so... will be taking today somewhat a little 'lighter'.
Suffice to say... a minor retrace looks likely into 11am.
Primary target is around sp'2090, which is 16pts below yesterdays high.. that would be pretty natural. The secondary is 2080... but I find that a little out of range.
-
*AAPL begins trading today in the Dow... having replaced T (AT & T).
--
Update from Mr C.
Oscar has been especially loud, arrogant, and pretty annoying lately.... but I can't just ignore him for those superficial reasons. His calls are always worth listening to.
re: Oil to $30.... yes.. that makes sense, and would make for one hell of a buying zone... not least for those energy stocks.
-
Good wishes for Thursday
-
9.35am... sp'2092... faster we fall... better chance of 2085/80... although that seems more likely on a secondary wave around 2.30pm... than by 11am.
In any case.. it is just a retrace.
Equity bears routed
It was a day of horror for those on the short side, with moderate declines to sp'2061, swinging on a hyper-ramp to an afternoon high of 2106. Regardless of any minor retrace on Thursday, the outlook into April is now back to bullish... with the R2K already breaking a new historic high of 1255.
R2K, weekly
sp'weekly7
Summary
*Not surprisingly, with sig' daily gains, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has now flipped from blue to green. There is simply nothing bearish here.
-
Most notable today - besides the broader upside action... the R2K, which attained a new historic high. Most other indexes look set to follow within the next few weeks.
--
Currency swings
Mere minutes after the 4pm equity close... there was real upset in currency land, where the USD flashed lower from the DXY 98s to 94.70.
--
Seen on the bigger picture.. there remains threat of a major - if natural, retrace to the breakout zone of DXY 90/87.... before resuming upward to the 120s.
USD, monthly
Monthly candle is starting to get a little spiky, and if we see a monthly close of 99.. or lower.. it would be suggestive of a 2-4 month retrace.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual jobs data, current acc, phil' fed, and leading indicators.
--
Moody bears
No doubt a fair few were heavy short the market into the 2pm announcement today. As I noted at the time, the smaller 5/15min cycles favoured the equity bulls. I had looked for upside as high as 2085/90... but with sustained action in the 2090s... and soon after.. 2100s, any hope of a reversal/broader downside is now OFF the menu.
I myself try to resist trading Fed days - along with some others I know. Such days can be notoriously unstable, and today was a good example where the micro cycles (just prior to 2pm) were warning of a higher chance of upside.. than downside.
-
Perhaps.. the following sums up the mood for those who remain short equities... and who don't use trading stops.
Goodnight from London
R2K, weekly
sp'weekly7
Summary
*Not surprisingly, with sig' daily gains, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has now flipped from blue to green. There is simply nothing bearish here.
-
Most notable today - besides the broader upside action... the R2K, which attained a new historic high. Most other indexes look set to follow within the next few weeks.
--
Currency swings
Mere minutes after the 4pm equity close... there was real upset in currency land, where the USD flashed lower from the DXY 98s to 94.70.
--
Seen on the bigger picture.. there remains threat of a major - if natural, retrace to the breakout zone of DXY 90/87.... before resuming upward to the 120s.
USD, monthly
Monthly candle is starting to get a little spiky, and if we see a monthly close of 99.. or lower.. it would be suggestive of a 2-4 month retrace.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual jobs data, current acc, phil' fed, and leading indicators.
--
Moody bears
No doubt a fair few were heavy short the market into the 2pm announcement today. As I noted at the time, the smaller 5/15min cycles favoured the equity bulls. I had looked for upside as high as 2085/90... but with sustained action in the 2090s... and soon after.. 2100s, any hope of a reversal/broader downside is now OFF the menu.
I myself try to resist trading Fed days - along with some others I know. Such days can be notoriously unstable, and today was a good example where the micro cycles (just prior to 2pm) were warning of a higher chance of upside.. than downside.
-
Perhaps.. the following sums up the mood for those who remain short equities... and who don't use trading stops.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities saw a post FOMC hyper-ramp from sp'2061, settling +25pts @
2099 (intra high 2106). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.8%
respectively. Regardless of any minor retrace of today's gains, it would
appear the market is headed for new historic highs.. into the 2120/30s.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
*a notable new historic high for the second market leader.. the R2K @ 1255.
--
The 50dma held (just) on the sp' @ 2061 this afternoon.. with a hyper-ramp to a Wed' spike high of 2106. A minor retrace to 2090/80 looks viable tomorrow. Regardless of any retrace... most equity indexes look set to push higher into end month... if not across April.
After today's price action, there is essentially ZERO hope of a break <2060 in the near term.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
*a notable new historic high for the second market leader.. the R2K @ 1255.
--
The 50dma held (just) on the sp' @ 2061 this afternoon.. with a hyper-ramp to a Wed' spike high of 2106. A minor retrace to 2090/80 looks viable tomorrow. Regardless of any retrace... most equity indexes look set to push higher into end month... if not across April.
After today's price action, there is essentially ZERO hope of a break <2060 in the near term.
--
a little more later...
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