With equities a little lower, the VIX managed to briefly break into the 13s, settling higher by 6.2% @ 12.81. Near term outlook offers a possible minor spike higher, but with the sp'1990/2000s likely before end July, the VIX looks set to melt lower to the 10/9s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to say... VIX 14/15s look viable, but certainly, nothing much more than that.
For Tuesday trading, I would be mindful of an opening black-fail candle...especially if the market is lower by around Dow -75/100pts.
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A day of moderate swings for US equities, with the sp'500 settling -4pts @ 1973. The two leaders - trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers Tuesday weakness, before upside to the 1990s by end week.
sp'60min
Summary
*NFLX earnings due at the close
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A sometime quiet start to the week, minor swings... few want to buy at these levels (not least yours truly), but then...there is very little downside pressure.
*I remain on the sidelines, seeking to go long, but after another wave lower.
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Equities appear stuck around sp'1975. A daily close in the 1980s looks unlikely. A further wave lower early Tuesday, to the sp'1950s looks very viable.. along with VIX 14/15s... before another short term floor is secured.
sp'60min
Summary
Certainly...a bit of a mixed day. I am not sure anyone will be much pleased with today.
Equity bulls do have sig' QE on Wed/Thursday to look forward to... should be enough to kick the market to the sp'1990s by end of the week.
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yours... on the sidelines...overnight... again.
3.41pm.. minor chop... but we do look stuck...
so.. I'll look for another wave lower..before I go long.
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back at the close.
US equities are battling hard to turn net positive on the day, but there looks to be very significant risk of a further wave lower into Tuesday. Regardless, price action still broadly favours the bulls, with the 2005/10 zone now viable on the bigger weekly cycles.
sp'weekly8
Summary
*for this hour...a break from the minor noise, with a reminder of the broader trend.
Upper bol' on the weekly is offering the 2000s in the immediate term, although daily charts will be restrictive to the 1990s this week.
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On any basis..this market remains bullish...and certainly, the default trade would be to the long side.
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*I remain content on the sidelines... seeking a better entry level...but hey...I realise I might not get it.
2.27pm... possible reversal underway.... at what is a typical turn time.
US equities remain moderately weak, with fair opportunity for a more significant wave lower into the close. VIX continues to battle to hold the 13s, with the 14/15s viable at the close.
sp'60min
Summary
So far then, a bit of a messy Monday, but with general weakness.
Certainly, I don't see a clear floor yet, lets see if Mr Market can wash out another wheel barrow of bull stops.
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Update from Riley
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stay tuned
1.32pm. I imagine the intraday wave counters are counting this one as a nano C up.
Still awaiting more downside...for a better buying level.
Equities bounce in late morning, but still... there isn't much real buying interest today. Equity bears just need to take out sp'1965..and a further 10/15pts of downside are viable into the close.
sp'60min
Summary
Not too much to add. VIX is moderately higher, but bears need to see the 14s for things to get mildly interesting by late today.
US equities are quietly slipping towards the sp'1950s. There really isn't much downside power behind this weakness, but neither is anyone in the mood to buy...yet. VIX is +12% in the mid 13s.. with the 14/15s viable this afternoon.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
...back from the shop....(with chocolates,, what else?)...
Market looks on track for the low sp'1950s... at which point I'd be a buyer...so long as price action looks 'stable'.
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time to cook!
11.29am.. typical 11am turn..... but we saw the same thing last Thursday....only to unravel by 1pm.
Regardless, I ain't in no hurry..... long afternoon ahead.
US equities open moderately lower, with the sp'500 breaking back in the 1960s. Hourly cycles are suggestive of further weakness today, best case downside looks to be the 1955/50 zone. VIX battling to push into the 13s.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Long day ahead...
So..we're somewhat lower, but there sure doesn't feel like there is much downside power. Bears will be lucky to see the 1950s later today. Could do with a little geo-political news on the wires to spook this market in the afternoon.
VIX has good upside potential (17/18s on weekly cycle), but even 14/15s look a challenge today.
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*I remain somewhat patient.. seeking to pick up an index block.. will look to buy.. regardless of price..when the hourly cycle levels out...probably before end day.
If we don't see much lower... then I'm sitting this out.
10.23am... market wants the sp'1950s.... lets see where we are in another 2-3 hours.
notable weakness, coal miners... BTU -2.6% in the $15.30s..... a truly bizarre price level... but then.. the US Govt. hates coal.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to start the week at 1973. Precious metals are higher, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.8%. Equity bears have a chance at breaking back into the sp'1950s today.
sp'60min
Summary
So, we're set to open a little lower, and with the hourly cycle as it is, equity bears could be in control for the whole day.
It will be important for the bears to break under sp'1970 early this morning... and certainly, it looks somewhat likely.
I would consider picking up an index-long, once the hourly cycle levels out, but that might not be clear until tomorrow.
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Hunter with Gold bug Kirby....
Metals have certainly broken out of the mid term down trend, but I'm still seeking the 2013 lows to be broken eventually, although that could be after further gains to $1450/1500 Gold.
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Good wishes for the trading week ahead!
9.14am.. sp -7pts, 1971... so we're already real close to breaking first target...
As ever, equity bears should look to the VIX.. 14s would be useful by late morning. Any break into the 15s..and things could spiral pretty fast.
9.37am.. good start for the bears...another 2-3 hours lower..and the 1950s should be here.
