Volatility breaks into the 12s

Despite the indexes opening lower, the VIX was red from the start, and quickly collapsed to a daily low of 12.89. Even though the indexes recovered across the day, the VIX settled somewhat above those morning lows, but still down a net -8.4% @ 13.48.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Indeed, the most notable issue of today was the opening VIX, where the Dow was -140pts, yet the VIX was -1.5%. and as the indexes quickly recovered by 10.30am, the VIX collapsed into the 12s.

Just reflect on the fact that across 8 trading hours, the VIX fell from the 18.50s to 12.80s.

We're right back to an essentially fearless market. A market that has zero concern about the immediate term, and one that knows the QE fuel will keep on flowing into next year.
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more later..on those bullish indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes generally closed with moderate gains, with the sp +11pts @ 1733. The near term trend remains starkly higher. The market has gained 87pts across the last 7 trading days. With the shutdown over and the debt ceiling kicked into next February, the market looks set for gains into next spring.


sp'60min

Summary

There is little to add.

The bigger picture should be crystal clear to even the most deluded doomer bears who thought the zombies would be roaming the western world this weekend.

This remains a powerfully bullish market, and the sp'1800s now look viable by late November.
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more later..on the VIX
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UPDATE...

The delayed Sept' jobs report..will be released, (likely @ 8.30am). next Tuesday.  So..there is something for the algo-bots to front run - not least with a big QE on the Monday.

3pm update - another day for the bulls

The main indexes are holding moderate gains of around 0.4%. Even the laggy Dow is 100pts above the morning lows. Metals are trying to break the mid-term down trend, with Gold +$40. Oil remains under broken support, -1.5%. VIX looks set to melt lower into the close.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Today was probably the 135th (so far this year) reminder to the bears that the underlying trend remains to the upside.

Anyone who dares to question that basic (and obvious) notion, should go stare at a weekly chart for the rest of the day.
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How will be close the week? Probably sp'1720s, if not 1730s..with VIX in the 13s...but more on that later.
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3.30pm  Market breaks into the sp'1730s, with R2K due for the 1100s...

R2K, weekly.

The 1200s look viable by end year, which would suggest sp'1850/1900s.
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3.45pm..The bulls sure do love their closing hour mini ramps..if only to really annoy the bears for the rest of the evening. sp'1731s... 85pts in 6 trading days. 

2pm update - is it the weekend yet?

The main indexes are generally holding moderate gains of around 0.4%. The Dow is the exception, weighed down by IBM and GS. Metals are holding the gains, Gold +$40. Oil remains very weak, -1.6%. The VIX is off the lows, but still...the market is back to a near completely fearless mode.


sp'60min

Summary

The trend on the hourly charts sure looks powerful.

We've climbed around 83pts in just 6 trading days., that is around 5%.

Anyone still think we'll be seeing the 1640s..or under, any time soon?
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Weekly/monthly cycles are absolutely clear..sp'1740/50s are coming within a week or two..and then the only issue is if market can battle higher into the 1800s by late November.  Why not?


BTU, having some real issues with the 200 day MA..

I'll be probably highlighting the other miners later today...

1pm update - bears being ground into dust

The market continues to grind higher..awash with QE fuel, and massive underlying momentum as best seen on the bigger weekly/monthly index cycles. The equity bears have learned nothing in over four years. How many more years until a few more of them 'get it'?


sp'daily5

Dow'daily

Summary

I've redrawn the Dow daily a touch, if only to emphasise the importance of the recent test of the 200day MA.
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*metals continue to build gains, whilst Oil has failed to hold support, and looks set for another 3% lower.


Almost everyone is going to need ask themselves the question 'what is going on here?', on any break into the Dow 16000s. It remains amusing how even the cheer leading maniacs on clown finance TV aren't remotely comprehending what is going on with US equities.

12pm update - underlying trend is powerfully bullish

The main indexes have seen a very (expected) swing back to the upside, with the sp' just a few pts shy of breaking new historic highs. The weekly/monthly charts are offering 1740/50s by end Oct, and the 1800s are going to be a viable target for November.


sp'weekly8

Summary

There is little to add really. I remain tempted to launch on a major tirade against a great many of the idiots out there, who were touting an effective zombie apocalypse mere days ago.

For now..I'll hold those thoughts for another time.
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We're headed into new territory...and we'll just keep on going.
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VIX update from Mr T.



Incredible collapse in the VIX...how about VIX 10s in November?

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Bonus video for lunch... from Mr H.



Good commentary on the 'debt as a solution' lunacy.

11am update - ...and the indexes turn green

As was obvious from the opening action in the VIX, there is huge underlying upward pressure in the market, not least helped by QE, a weak USD, and the increasing mainstream realisation that the fed won't be cutting QE until next spring (if ever). Metals holding gains, Oil remains especially weak.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

There is little reason why we won't be trading around sp'1740/50 by end-month..and then a break into the 1800s in November.

The mainstream 'expert' consensus is not expecting the 1900s by year end...and that is indeed viable..if 'briefly'.
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Notable movers: Energy sector, coal miners, most are 4% higher, with BTU - arguably the best out there, +9%. More on those miners later.

*the following is a very old chart, (will update later)..but you can see my secondary target was also hit.

BTU trying to make a break over the 200 day MA. Now that IS one to watch.


11.09am.. King Obama just proclaimed...

'...we need to stop focusing on the bloggers who benefit from this [default] conflict'.

I think King O' is onto Zerohedge ..or me?

10am update - zero fear

The early morning falls - especially in the Dow, are entirely irrelevant. The VIX is telling the real story, and is already in the mid 13s. We're back to a completely fearless market, a market that has the QE fuel it needs, and a debt ceiling...kicked out into February 2014. All is well.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Some will never learn. Many simply don't want to.

Anyone getting overly excited about the opening index declines are even more stupid than the idiots who believed the US Govt' would default.

For those of you who aren't idiots....stick around. We have some interesting weeks and months ahead!
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A reminder on the bigger picture...which is arguably a 'conservative' bullish outlook

sp'weekly8

There is essentially no reason why the market won't broadly climb all the way into the end of next spring. By then, the market should be comfortably in the sp'2000s, if not significantly higher than that.


10.16am.. from VIX 18.50 to 12.80s..in just 8 trading hours. Incredible.

Pre-Market Brief

Futures are a touch lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1717. Metals are soaring, Gold +$35, Silver +60 cents (2.7%). The USD is -0.9%, and that is no doubt going to give upside bias to everything (if that level of decline holds). Equity bulls should be fine into the weekend.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*I am in catch-up mode this morning, so..will be somewhat 'slower' today.

So...no default, and the market is back in the 1720s. I'm almost surprised we're not in record territory. Most notable..the VIX..back in the 14s.

After all, there now zero fear of the near term. Indeed, there really isn't much to fear until the late spring.
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9.06am. Despite the dow -140, the other indexes are down just -0.5%.

*Oil on the slide, -1.1%...a bit more and support will be broken.

In perhaps more important news, my sat' dish has decided it can pick up CNBC again. So, I've the delights of Cramer again, who is sounding surprisingly despondent.


9.17am. I'm highly inclined to launch into a tirade for much of today..to the dumbest bunch of idiots out there.

We know who they are....and I can already see some of them out there this morning, at it again.

'see..we were right..we're opening lower!'.
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Idiots.  Even after they got their faces ripped off yesterday..they're still at it.
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Long indexes, short volatility, short USD, ..and short metals.

Ohh, and there is QE today of around $3bn...that will help to negate the weak open. As ever..look for a turn around 11am


9.33am..indexes lower.... but the VIX opens -1%.

How about a weekly VIX close in the 13s?