VIX cools for a tenth day

Whilst equities traded very quietly on what was a semi-holiday session, the VIX continued to cool, settling lower for the tenth consecutive day, -5.3% @ 16.17. Near term outlook is for continued equity upside, which should equate to VIX in the 15/14s.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*special note: the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which has now seen a bearish cross... negative cycle.. for the first time since early August.
-

So.. VIX saw yet another net daily decline.. ten days down.. and looking back.. I can't find any such downside run in the past ten years.

In some ways, it could be argued as a key underlying signal that VIX 40/30s (never mind the 50s) are now out of range for the remainder of the year.

I realise though, many of the equity bears will continue to call the recent rally from sp'1867 as largely about short-covering.

Regardless of which side you might be inclined to believe, the VIX has now cooled from 53.29 (Aug 24th) to 16.15... this afternoon.

--
*I have ZERO interest in being long-VIX in the immediate term.. and probably until the next FOMC of Oct'28th
-

more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2017. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 2040/60 zone before the next FOMC of Oct' 28th.


sp'60min

Summary

After the rather wild swings since mid August, it was the quietest trading day in at least a few months.

Energy stocks saw sig' weakness, as Oil cooled from the $50 threshold to the $47s.

Broadly, equities still look set to push higher.. certainly above the recent 2020 high, and likely to 2040/50. Clearly, there will be powerful resistance at the 200dma around 2060.

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - another hour of mostly nothing

US equities are set to close with further nano scale price chop... with most indexes set to close broadly flat. VIX is naturally continuing to cool, -3% in the mid 16s... and it will make for the tenth consecutive net daily decline. Gold is holding moderate gains of $4, whilst Oil is at the lows, -4.7% in the $47s.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Very quiet start to the week, it can only get more lively from here, right?

--
*I will consider picking up a long-USO position tomorrow morning.

--
back at the close

2pm update - energy stocks under pressure

With Oil continuing to slide, -4.3% in the $47s, most energy stocks are significantly lower. A retrace seems very natural.. after what have been some very powerful gains. Metals are battling to hold moderate gains, Gold +$5.. with the USD broadly flat in the DXY 94.80s.


APA, daily

RIG, daily

Summary

Little to add.

--
Certainly no sign of a short term floor in Oil.....

USO'60min

I'd guess Oil might open weak tomorrow, but then start to build a floor.

1pm update - Oil continues to cool

Whilst US equities remain broadly flat, there is notable weakness in Oil, -3.4% in the $47s. Hourly cycle is offering a further 2-3% lower into Tues/Wed. A weekly close >$50 looks viable on the next rebound.. which would be bullish for the broader market.


USO'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

*I remain on the sidelines, but yes... Oil is an interesting one to consider. I'd certainly USO in the 15.25/00 zone.
-

notable weakness, TVIX -7% in the $7.70s....  relentless grind lower.. as there is no fear in the market.

--
time for a somewhat late lunch.. as the sunsets in London city.

12pm update - micro up wave

A little wave to the upside, but broadly.. the US equity market is trading in semi-holiday mode.. with a flat close due for most indexes. With continued equity churn, the VIX remains cooling, -3% in the 16.50s.


sp'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*It is highly notable that if the VIX closes lower today, it would make for the tenth consecutive daily decline.
--

Little to add... on what is effectively a day of almost nothing.

*Oil is -2.4%.. and I'll be considering picking up a long position in USO. Certainly, I can't be short .. after last weeks bullish weekly candle.

--
VIX update from Mr T.



--
time to cook

11am update - are we still open?

US equities are increasingly muted.. with still a long day ahead. A broadly flat close seems highly probable... with VIX in the 17/16s. Gold has been unable to hold most of the opening gains... whilst Oil remains notably weak, -1.3% in the $48s.


USO, 60min

USO, weekly2

Summary

Little to add.

A day where the market is in a holding pattern ahead of more earnings... not least from FB, INTC, and NFLX.

-
*I'm increasingly interested in Oil (regardless of GS comments/nonsense).. as the weekly cycles remain outright bullish.

--
notable weakness..

Despite the slightly higher VIX.. the infamous TVIX/UXVY continue to degrade..

TVIX, daily

*VIX opex is at this coming Wed' open.

10am update - opening chop

US equity indexes open with some very minor price chop around sp'2015.. with VIX remaining subdued in the 17s. There is notable strength in the metals, with Gold +$6 and Silver +0.7%. Oil is in cooling mode, -1.7%, with the broader weekly cycle offering $55/57 within a few weeks.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Well... not much to add. There just isn't much going on... certainly nothing for equity bears to be getting involved in.

*if I had to take a few trades right now (and I sure ain't in the mood today)... long Oil and DIS. Although Oil certainly will likely cool into tomorrow.

--
notable strength...

DIS

The daily chart is pretty clear... its breaking UP and away.. first target is the earnings gap zone.. $113.. a clear $7 higher.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2015. USD is fractionally lower, -0.1% in the DXY 94.70s. Metals continue to battle higher, Gold +$10. Oil is making another play for a daily close above the $50 threshold, +0.6%.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

... a semi-holiday in the US today.. so it will be somewhat quiet.... and that would normally favour the equity bulls.

Broadly, market looks on track for the 2040/60 zone. All that matters now is whether we see a monthly close above old broken support.

Frankly, it is not looking good for the equity bears.... not least with China getting very close to a key breakout.

The one valid excuse for a wave lower will come next week.. with yet another FOMC. Will the market sell lower on no rate rise again, or actually rise into end month >2060?
--

Doomer chat, Hunter with Williams



Williams remains on the 'inflation is coming train'... and in that respect.. he remains... wrong. As ever, make of that... what you will.
--


Overnight Asia action...

Japan: CLOSED
China: +3.3% @ 3287. Any sustained action >3400 would be suggestive that the decline from June is complete.
--

Have a good Monday