VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Volatility remains very subdued, as the US.. and most other world markets continue to battle upward.
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more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 15 April 2015
VIX continues to cool
With equities climbing for a second day, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling -6.1% @ 12.84. Near term outlook is for continued equity upside.. which should equate to VIX remaining within the 15/11 zone.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Volatility remains very subdued, as the US.. and most other world markets continue to battle upward.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Volatility remains very subdued, as the US.. and most other world markets continue to battle upward.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed higher for a second consecutive day, sp +10pts @ 2106 . The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with the sp'2130/40s viable within the next few weeks. Equity bears have little realistic hope until at least mid May.
sp'60min
Summary
*notable new historic highs in the R2K, NYSE comp'
--
... an interesting day, with a rather large number of individual dynamic movers... in particular...
Oil/gas drillers, RIG, SDRL
Copper miners, FCX, TCK
Tech, INTC
Broadly.. market looks set for a weekly close in the sp'2120s.. and continue climbing into May.
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*I exited INTC (long) in the early morning.... picked up TWTR (long).. in the afternoon.
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4.10pm.. NFLX earnings: ... missed, EPS 38 cents vs expected 69. However, subscriber numbers were good.
Stock soaring to new historic highs...
*a likely stock split looks due... a 5 for 1? That will at least make the option calls more tradeable!
--
more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*notable new historic highs in the R2K, NYSE comp'
--
... an interesting day, with a rather large number of individual dynamic movers... in particular...
Oil/gas drillers, RIG, SDRL
Copper miners, FCX, TCK
Tech, INTC
Broadly.. market looks set for a weekly close in the sp'2120s.. and continue climbing into May.
-
*I exited INTC (long) in the early morning.... picked up TWTR (long).. in the afternoon.
--
4.10pm.. NFLX earnings: ... missed, EPS 38 cents vs expected 69. However, subscriber numbers were good.
Stock soaring to new historic highs...
*a likely stock split looks due... a 5 for 1? That will at least make the option calls more tradeable!
--
more later.. on the VIX
3pm update - flying high
US equity indexes look set for a second consecutive net daily gain, with the sp'500 within 0.4% of breaking a historic high (>2119). It remains highly notable that the second market leader - R2K, along with the 'master index' - NYSE Composite, have both broken historic highs today.
R2K, daily
Summary
So.. a second day of gains, and dare I say, I am somewhat bemused to still be seeing some tout sig' down waves within the near term.
Market looks set to climb into May... but with the threat of mid June... not least if Oil prices can help drag energy stocks much higher (I'd refer anyone to the daily/weekly charts for... RIG, SDRL, APA, XOM... CVX).
notable strength: energy, CHK, +4.8%... as oil and gas prices continue to climb.
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back at the close
 |
| Higher oil prices... not so bullish for airlines |
R2K, daily
Summary
So.. a second day of gains, and dare I say, I am somewhat bemused to still be seeing some tout sig' down waves within the near term.
Market looks set to climb into May... but with the threat of mid June... not least if Oil prices can help drag energy stocks much higher (I'd refer anyone to the daily/weekly charts for... RIG, SDRL, APA, XOM... CVX).
notable strength: energy, CHK, +4.8%... as oil and gas prices continue to climb.
--
back at the close
2pm update - time for a fed book
The latest Fed beige book is due at 2pm, the algo-bots will be ready to digest some words, but overall, market looks set for a second consecutive daily gain. Metals have built further gains, Gold +$9. Oil is similarly still on the rise, +4.5%.
sp'daily5
Summary
... awaiting the Fed press release...
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In far more important news though... it is a perfect evening here in London city...
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stay tuned!
2.03pm... it'd seem the Fed is leaning on the positive side (why wouldn't it?)... indexes look set to battle upward into the close.
A weeky close in the sp'2120s... now looks probable.
sp'daily5
Summary
... awaiting the Fed press release...
--
In far more important news though... it is a perfect evening here in London city...
 |
| Bullish... 74f |
--
stay tuned!
2.03pm... it'd seem the Fed is leaning on the positive side (why wouldn't it?)... indexes look set to battle upward into the close.
A weeky close in the sp'2120s... now looks probable.
1pm update - continued chop
US equities are still seeing some minor chop.. but look set for net daily gains. It is highly notable that the R2K and NYSE comp' broke new historic highs today. Oil continues to build very strong gains, +4.2%... the $56s are due. Metals are battling to hold moderate gains, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.3%
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add...
Market looks set for a net daily gain.. new historic highs for the sp/Dow.. look due.
--
Notable strength: INTC +4.7%... battling for the $33s... where the 200dma is lurking.
-
stay tuned... back for the Fed beige book at 2pm
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add...
Market looks set for a net daily gain.. new historic highs for the sp/Dow.. look due.
--
Notable strength: INTC +4.7%... battling for the $33s... where the 200dma is lurking.
-
stay tuned... back for the Fed beige book at 2pm
12pm update - minor chop
US equities are seeing a touch of chop, but still look set for another net daily gain. VIX is naturally in cooling mode, -3.5% in the 13.10s. There is notable strength in Oil, +3.9% in the $55s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$4.
sp'60min
USO,60min
Summary
Oil is clearly headed for the $60s... whether next week.. or not until early May... makes little difference in the scheme of things.
Regardless of any weakness this afternoon (not least after the Fed beige book at 2pm)... underlying price pressure remains bullish.
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notable strength: INTC +4.3%. Seemingly headed for $35.. at least.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for some chilled drinks... its summer!
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12.05pm.. Long TWTR.. from $51.20... am looking to drop on the next up wave.. somewhere in the 53/54s... before earnings... and be long again for earnings (Tue Apr'28th).
Anyway.... back to the drinks.
sp'60min
USO,60min
Summary
Oil is clearly headed for the $60s... whether next week.. or not until early May... makes little difference in the scheme of things.
Regardless of any weakness this afternoon (not least after the Fed beige book at 2pm)... underlying price pressure remains bullish.
--
notable strength: INTC +4.3%. Seemingly headed for $35.. at least.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
-
time for some chilled drinks... its summer!
-
12.05pm.. Long TWTR.. from $51.20... am looking to drop on the next up wave.. somewhere in the 53/54s... before earnings... and be long again for earnings (Tue Apr'28th).
Anyway.... back to the drinks.
11am update - Oil breaking up and away
Whilst equities are holding moderate gains, there is notable strength in Oil, +2.8%... into the $55s, as the weekly surplus totalled just 1.3 million barrels. WTIC is headed for $60... perhaps the $67/75 zone before the next big wave lower.
USO, weekly
sp'60min
Summary
*it is highly notable that the R2K and NYSE Comp' indexes are trading at historic highs. The rest of the market looks set to follow.
--
So.. a green candle on the USO weekly chart.. clarifying what the WTIC weekly chart presented last week.
The $60s look an easy target within the near term... despite the issue of over-supply NOT remotely addressed.
--
notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +5.5%, SDRL +4.8%.... following Oil.
-
time to cook !
USO, weekly
sp'60min
Summary
*it is highly notable that the R2K and NYSE Comp' indexes are trading at historic highs. The rest of the market looks set to follow.
--
So.. a green candle on the USO weekly chart.. clarifying what the WTIC weekly chart presented last week.
The $60s look an easy target within the near term... despite the issue of over-supply NOT remotely addressed.
--
notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +5.5%, SDRL +4.8%.... following Oil.
-
time to cook !
10am update - opening gains
US equities are battling higher, with a new cycle high of sp'2108... a mere 11pts (0.6%) from breaking a new historic high. Metals are choppy, Gold +$1. Oil is building sig' gains of 1.3%, but will remain vulnerable at least until the EIA report is out of the way.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're seeing upside follow through, and bears look toast for rest of the week.
There is a fair bit of ECB chatter this morning... not least due to the 'drama'.
--
notable strength: INTC
A clear break above declining trend/resistance.. the door is open to initial target of the $35s.
*I bailed on INTC at the open... but remain long term bullish on the stock. Will consider getting involved another day.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we're seeing upside follow through, and bears look toast for rest of the week.
There is a fair bit of ECB chatter this morning... not least due to the 'drama'.
--
notable strength: INTC
A clear break above declining trend/resistance.. the door is open to initial target of the $35s.
*I bailed on INTC at the open... but remain long term bullish on the stock. Will consider getting involved another day.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2101, a mere 0.8% from breaking a new historic high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2. Oil is holding early sig' gains of 1.4%.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
We have a fair few bits of data today, along with two fed officials this morning. This afternoon the market will have eyes on the latest Fed beige book.. which will likely turn attention to Q1 GDP.... due Apr'29th.
Market looks set for new historic highs in the near term, and it would seem a reasonable target for June is the monthly upper bollinger.... somewhere in the 2170/80s.. or so.
--
notable early strength: INTC +3% in the $32.50s
Daily
The break above the declining trend/resistance of $32 is pretty significant. A climb towards $35... if not the low 40s by June looks underway.
*I am long INTC from Monday.... as an earnings play, I will look to drop early this morning, but am most certainly broadly bullish the stock across the longer term.
Have a good Wednesday!
-
9.34am.. EXITED INTC-long... from $32.35.... not as good as I was looking for.. but it'll do.
*opening black-fail candle on INTC.... I may have just exited at the top.
sp'60min
Summary
We have a fair few bits of data today, along with two fed officials this morning. This afternoon the market will have eyes on the latest Fed beige book.. which will likely turn attention to Q1 GDP.... due Apr'29th.
Market looks set for new historic highs in the near term, and it would seem a reasonable target for June is the monthly upper bollinger.... somewhere in the 2170/80s.. or so.
--
notable early strength: INTC +3% in the $32.50s
Daily
The break above the declining trend/resistance of $32 is pretty significant. A climb towards $35... if not the low 40s by June looks underway.
*I am long INTC from Monday.... as an earnings play, I will look to drop early this morning, but am most certainly broadly bullish the stock across the longer term.
Have a good Wednesday!
-
9.34am.. EXITED INTC-long... from $32.35.... not as good as I was looking for.. but it'll do.
*opening black-fail candle on INTC.... I may have just exited at the top.
Oil continues to climb
WTIC Oil prices settled higher for the third consecutive day, +$1.30 (2.5%) @ $53.29. First upside target is the $60 threshold. A major multi-month bounce/retrace looks underway, which should likely max out somewhere in the 67/75 zone this summer.
WTIC, weekly'2
WTIC, daily
Summary
Over supply remains a key issue, but for the moment, the market is still managing to drive the underlying price to the upside. Certainly, the $60s look viable within the near term.
Regardless of the next set of API/EIA reports, Oil looks set to claw higher into the summer.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see Empire state, Indust' prod, housing market index, EIA oil report.. and a Fed beige book (2pm).
*Fed officials Bullard and Fischer will be speaking in the morning, and Mr Market will be closely listening.
--
Goodnight from London
WTIC, weekly'2
WTIC, daily
Summary
Over supply remains a key issue, but for the moment, the market is still managing to drive the underlying price to the upside. Certainly, the $60s look viable within the near term.
Regardless of the next set of API/EIA reports, Oil looks set to claw higher into the summer.
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see Empire state, Indust' prod, housing market index, EIA oil report.. and a Fed beige book (2pm).
*Fed officials Bullard and Fischer will be speaking in the morning, and Mr Market will be closely listening.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed a little higher, sp +3pts @ 2095. The two leaders -
Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook is bullish,
with new historic highs for all indexes due... inc' the Nasdaq Comp
(>5132).
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Equities saw some moderate weakness in the morning, but as usual, the market saw something of a latter day rally.
New historic highs look due for all indexes in the coming weeks.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Equities saw some moderate weakness in the morning, but as usual, the market saw something of a latter day rally.
New historic highs look due for all indexes in the coming weeks.
-
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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