Closing Brief

US equities saw a day of minor weak chop, sp' -3pts @ 1961. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued chop into the FOMC announcement of Wednesday afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting TWTR earnings, will be a curious one to watch.
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Frankly, there isn't much to note. Market looks set for further minor chop tomorrow.. and into the Fed press release on Wed' at 2pm.

Best guess, a brief attempt to break and hold the sp'1970s... but failing, with a reversal.... and a monthly close in the sp'1950s.
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For those who need a distraction from the tedious market chop...

... over at Mt Doom....



The cam view is of the nearby fissure. The actual Bardarbunga caldera continues to collapse. Eventually.. the overlying glacier/ice will meet the core magma chamber.... then those in NW Europe should expect some kind of 'Booooooooom'.

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4.09pm.. Update on TWTR.

Results were inline, but the market rats ain't happy, and are selling it hard...

Holding declines of around -10%....   low so far.. -14% in the $42s.

4.15pm.. the CEO of TWTR does a fair attempt to pump the company/stock..but Mr Market ain't buying it...    -11% in the $44s... having lost the 50dma....

next support is not until the $40 threshold.... where there is a clear gap from last earnings.


4.35pm  TWTR -11% in the $44s.... a move to $40 looks pretty likely in the near term.
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Watching clown finance TV (I really should turn it off), some maniac 'expert guest' was talking about how Amazon just needs to be given some more time to become profitable. More time? Bezos has had the best part of a decade.. how many more years does he get?

If there is one company I want to see receive true 'fair value'... it is the AMZN. Not that I'd short it... still seems overly risky.

AMZN remains one to watch.... (along with TWTR, FB) for purely 'entertainment' purposes.
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*I'll post a daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - falling asleep into the close

US equities have started the week with a day of minor weakness, and there is little reason why the bulls will be able to attain the 1970s this side of the FOMC announcement. Energy prices remain weak, but well above the morning lows.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what is essentially just a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC.

Notable weakness, miners, ETF of GDX -1.4%.... still set to lose the 20s.
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Urghh... check this out...

Yeah... lets get some 'real investor advice'...
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back at the close.

2pm update - just another hour

US equities remain stuck under the wall of resistance of the sp'1970s. A brief break into the 1970s looks viable... but from there... a reversal of some kind - at least to the 1920s. VIX has cooled, now just +1.5%... a red close is viable.


sp'60min

Summary

Its turning into a real sleepy afternoon.. and here in London city.. its already night.
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Notable weakness, TWTR -2.7%.. which has results at the close.

1pm update - three warnings

US equities remain seeing minor weak chop in the sp'1965/50 zone. Market looks set to continue in chop mode until at least Wednesday afternoon.. when the Fed are set to announce the official end of QE3.. aka.. QE infinity. Not so infinite... after all.


sp'daily5c - 3 warnings

Summary

*As for the above chart, it is something I'll be highlighting often in the days ahead.
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The good thing is that the levels are pretty clear.

Sustained price action >1970.. and the doomer 'crashy' scenario is off.

A break <1900 offers a free fall move to the 1650s.
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Notable weakness, Oil/gas drillers, RIG, SDRL, both lower by around -4%

12pm update - settling in for continued chop

Many traders are very likely just settling in for some moderate chop for the next few days. Market is stuck just under a resistance wall of the sp'1970s... and above first soft support of the mid 1920s. Energy stocks remain under severe pressure, from lower Oil prices.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say... choppy start to the week... but as expected. Another few days of this seems likely... before market picks a direction. I suppose it could drag out into next week, but really.. who wants to be going long >1970, seriously?

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time to cook

11am update - weak chop

Equities remain a little weak, but overall, it is merely minor chop, and the market will likely remain stuck in a narrow range for the next few days. VIX is higher, but looks vulnerable to 15/14s before a clear floor. Oil/Nat' gas both remain very weak, by around -1.5%


sp'daily5c - warning levels

vix'daily3

Summary

*notable black-fail daily candle on the VIX, again suggesting no major down wave for some days... until post FOMC.
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So... minor chop...but really, there is little reason to expect sig' downside until late this week.

Energy stocks remain really battered... CHK, RIG, SDRL, very sig' declines, and the outlook into 2015 looks dire.

There are a fair few out there who are suggesting no down wave until after the US mid term elections (next Tuesday) I believe. In many ways, that would be understandable.

Notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -4%.. in the $9s... first time since 2004.
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Video from sp500chart.com.. whom I keep an eye on sometimes...



An upside target of 1978... which is possible this week, but hell, bears would need to see some kind of swift reversal from there, with a Friday close in the 1950s.
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time to shop.... back soon


11.25am ... suffice to say... bearish Tesco.  Urghhh. If their automated checkouts get any more broken they'll miss their revenue estimates by 99% in Q4.
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Notable strength, BABA +2.7%... in the 98s. The momo chasers will be gunning for the big $100 this week. 

10am update - the last QE

US equities open moderately lower, but its nothing significant, and the market will likely see moderate chop until Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, it is highly notable that the last QE-pomo is due this hour.. a mere $1bn of 'new money' to be thrown at Mr Market


sp'monthly8

sp'weekly7

Summary

*the opening weekly 'rainbow' candle was green.. but has just turned blue...
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**A monthly close in the 1950s.. or lower... is pretty important for the bears to achieve.
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There is a lot going on... but suffice to say.... energy prices weak, Nat' gas -1.6%, with Oil -2.3%, and that is not helping the energy sector.

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Notable weakness, CHK -5.4%.... the recent gains are strongly fading.
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10.32am.. chop chop... VIX cooling already...

Regardless, I think most will be in a holding pattern until the FOMC of Wednesday afternoon.

BTU fails to hold $10.... headed for $5... almost certainly.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 1961. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is lower by a rather significant -1.2%. Today is likely the last of the QE fuel... bulls beware!


sp'daily5c - warning levels

Summary

*awaiting PMI service, and pending home sales data.
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So... nothing exciting to start the week, but still, today is the very likely the last of the QE

As for chart 5c, it is merely a reminder (if only to myself) of likely valid warning levels. For me, it is all about the 1900 level. If that is closed back under, then a move to the 1600s becomes pretty straight forward.

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Notable early strength: BABA +1.6%... still making a play to take out the opening high of $99.


Doom chat with Hunter and Hoffman



Personally, the 'dollar doom' talk is utter nonsense. The irony is that far from imploding, the USD is likely to see further strength, not least with further EU weakness.

Hoffman.. along with Schiff, and many of the other dollar doomers simply have a closed mind... never mind their bizarre obsession with one asset class... precious metals. It is all pretty lame really. Regardless, it can be useful to keep an eye on what the kooks are saying.
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Good wishes for what will be a big week!


8.49am... Futures weakening... sp -8pts... 1956... so.. VIX will likely be up by 5-7% in the 17s.