Monday 22 July 2013

Volatility down yet again

Whilst the main US indexes closed somewhat mixed, overall market volatility continues to melt lower, with the VIX closing -2% @ 12.29. Near term trend remains weak, and the VIX looks set for the 11s if sp'1700s later this week.




There is little to add really. Whilst the main market remains in what is melt-mode, the VIX is similarly in melt-down mode.

VIX 11.05 was the low from March. That won't be easy to break, even if sp'1720s, but still..we'll probably come pretty close.

As some note, the VIX can stay low for a very considerable time. In the past few months, the lowest point of the cycle lasts about 2 weeks.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

A very quiet start to the week, with the main US equity indexes closing mixed. The sp +3pts @ 1695. Precious metals closed with very significant gains, Gold +$38. There was notable weakness in Oil, -1.4%, although the $110s still look a given.



Pretty dull day really, and I just don't see why the rest of the week will be any different.

Sure there are a lot of earnings, but Mr Market remains in melt mode from the now distant sp'1560 low (a mere 4 weeks ago).

Bears face QE of $3bn tomorrow. Even a flat close will be 'difficult'.

the usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - sleepy closing hour

The main indexes are still trying to melt higher, and for those bears getting involved on the short side is getting annoying. Precious metals holding strong gains, but Oil is now very weak, -1.3%.



Kinda quiet day still, and that merely allows the bots to rally it back on each micro down cycle.

For the bears..this is still no market to be meddling in...yet.

*earnings for the ultra-momo stock... NFLX at the close

The short-stops just got washed out ahead of earnings....$256 is a key level to watch, if broken..opens drop to $230

Market is looking for Q2 earnings of 40 cents of so.....which still gives a PE of 100.

Bargain huh?

2pm update - tricksy market

The hourly index charts are now offering a moderate rollover into the close/early Tuesday. Yet, the market is still in a broad 'melt mode'..and there is mid-size QE of $3bn tomorrow. Bears shorting this nonsense, better have tight short-stops.



First downside target would be the lower bollinger, currently around 1682...a mere 0.6% away.

Personally, no way will I be getting involved in this minor mess.

The entire week looks to be 'generally' bullish, not least with the weekly charts still pushing upward.

Oil is weak...

WTIC in the $110s still looks a given later than early next week.

1pm update - fifth wave peak not far away

The main indexes remain in melt mode, and the sp'1700s look set to be hit later this afternoon. Weekly index charts are offering sp'1705/10 this week, daily charts are offering 1720s. On any basis, the bears still have at least another week..or two to wait.

sp'weekly8 - mid-term 'best guess'


Another green candle..although yes..a long week ahead.


With no real news out there, and 2 big QEs, sp'1710/20s look likely by the end of this week.

The only issue is whether we then max out early next week, ahead of the July'31 FOMC.

Right now..that IS my best guess.

Downside from the next peak will (again) be the lower weekly bollinger..currently 1526..and riisng.

*I remain on the sidelines...surprisingly, I'm not finding that too difficult.

12pm update - sp'1700s imminent

The main indexes are comfortably holding moderate gains after the micro opening chop. Most notable action today remains in the Precious metals/miners, with Gold +$35, and Silver almost a full dollar. WTIC Oil is the one weak spot, but still looks set for $110 this week, or early next.



So...barely a few hours into the trading week, and we're already seeing the old nonsense, that is the 'algo-bot slow motion upward melt'.

This could last ALL week, not least with two sig' QEs - Tue/Thursday.

For the bears out there, this is no market to be part of.

The 'best bear case' right now, we max out early next week, and then the July'31 FOMC/GDP sends the market into a bit of a mood.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for lunch :)

11am update - already melting

A mixed open, but it appears the market is settling into melt mode again. The sp' now looks set for 1700s later today or tomorrow (the Tuesday QE should help). Metals are holding very strong gains, Gold +$31, but Oil is now weak, -0.75%.



As ever, the old problem remains...all else being will merely melt to the upside.

No sig' QE today, but there is tomorrow, and that will no doubt help prop things up.

*Am curious about how AAPL Q2 earnings (at the Tuesday close) will be.

Certainly, AAPL is starting to rollover on the daily MACD cycle, but nothing conclusive yet

10am update - mixed open

The main indexes broke new highs at the open, but we're seeing a moderate opening fail. Precious metals/miners remain significantly higher, with some rather bullish trend breaks to the upside. VIX is battling a little higher,



For the bulls, market needs to close today at least in the 1690s.

Bears should be seeking a break under the July'15 low of 1671.

Maybe a little shakeout today/tomorrow - wave sub'4 ?

Bears need to be aware of sig' QE tomorrow..and Thursday.

Gold...weekly chart..

 a clear break out of the down channel...and now to the upside. Silver is NOT yet out of the channel.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp+4pts, we're set to open at 1696. Precious metals have snapped higher, with Gold breaking through the $1300 level, now +$20. USD is weak, -0.3%. Market looks set for general upside this week.




In the very near term, the key issue remains whether we have yet seen a sub'4 wave.

Very difficult to know of course, but unquestionably, the primary trend remains to the upside.

My best guess remains, we max out within the next 1-3 weeks, and then another decline to the mid sp'1550s, before massive ramp into spring 2014.

Video from Oscar, who is naturally in a hyper-bullish mood....

I will say, I find it incredulous how Oscar talks about a 'European recovery'. Tell that to the Greeks, or the Spanish..or the....

As much as I credit Oscar with calling the market 'largely correct' for the last six years, his appreciation of the 'economic reality' leaves a lot to be desired.

Good wishes for Monday!