Wednesday 19 September 2018

Higher rates are bullish

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2907. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -8.1% to 11.75. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, but likely no lower than around 2895/90.




US equity indexes were pretty mixed today, with the Dow moderately higher, but with tech leaning somewhat weak. No new historic highs were seen, but they are clearly coming. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the 11s. S/t outlook offers moderate equity weakness on Thursday, but likely no lower than the sp'2895/90 zone.

Higher rates are bullish

Yours truly has (vainly) tried for a few years to highlight something which the mainstream have long feared... higher interest rates/bond yields. The fed are clearly set to raise rates next week (+25bps to 2.00-2.25%), and also at the Dec'19th meeting.

Higher rates ARE inherently bullish for the US financials. Indeed, fears that the fed won't hike a third or fourth time this year, have been a drag on the financials since the early spring.

BAC, monthly

Today saw a bull flag provisionally confirmed. A push >33s is due, and that will offer the 38/40 zone, whether by year end (a stretch) or a more viable spring 2019. If I'm right, very bullish sector/main market implications into/across 2019.

Summer has almost fully faded
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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