VIX'daily3
Summary
*a notable fourth consecutive daily decline for the VIX
--
Little to add. VIX has broken rising trend.... no support until 14/13s.
-
more later... on the indexes
Thursday, 22 January 2015
Volatility crushed
With the ECB announcing a QE-pomo program for the EU markets, the uncertainty is out of the way, and the VIX was naturally crushed lower, settling -13.0% @ 16.40. Near term outlook is for the VIX to melt lower into the weekend, the 14/13s look viable within days.
VIX'daily3
Summary
*a notable fourth consecutive daily decline for the VIX
--
Little to add. VIX has broken rising trend.... no support until 14/13s.
-
more later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
*a notable fourth consecutive daily decline for the VIX
--
Little to add. VIX has broken rising trend.... no support until 14/13s.
-
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed significantly higher, sp +31pts @ 2063 (intra low 2026). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by a very significant 2.9% and 2.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for a straight move to the sp'2100s.
sp'60min
Summary
Tis a long day.... I think the chart above says more than enough.
--
more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
Tis a long day.... I think the chart above says more than enough.
--
more later.. on the VIX
3pm update - a fourth day of gains
US equities look set to close higher for the fourth consecutive day... no doubt significantly helped via the ECB and Danish CB. A daily close in the sp'2050s looks probable, and will be 'useful' to the bull maniacs, and should confirm the sp'2100s will be hit within a week or two.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
--
back at the close... on what was a pretty important day for the world equities.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
--
back at the close... on what was a pretty important day for the world equities.
2pm update - holding gains
Despite a notable early morning swing lower, US equities are now comfortably holding gains, with a viable daily close in the sp'2050s.. along with VIX 16/15s. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$7. Energy prices remain broadly weak, Nat' gas -5.5%, whilst Oil is -2.5%
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
*VIX is -10% in the upper 16s.... reflecting a market that is again placated via the giant PRINT key
--
Without getting lost in the minor noise... looks like we'll close higher for the fourth consecutive day.
--
*I remain long via the R2K, little inclination to exit until the 1210/20s... which seem viable next week.
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
*VIX is -10% in the upper 16s.... reflecting a market that is again placated via the giant PRINT key
--
Without getting lost in the minor noise... looks like we'll close higher for the fourth consecutive day.
--
*I remain long via the R2K, little inclination to exit until the 1210/20s... which seem viable next week.
12pm update - awaiting a little more clarity
US equities are holding moderate gains, with the sp' having clawed from a post announcement sell off of sp'2026.. to 2051. A weekly close above the 10MA of 2053 would be 'useful' to the bull maniacs, and offer the sp'2110/30 zone by mid February.
sp'weekly7
GLD, daily
Summary
*Metals sure were choppy this morning, Gold -$10 in early pre-market. There is obvious resistance soon to hit.... of the July high, some $40 higher.
--
So... an interesting day so far... and a key marker point for the ECB.
With QE-pomo for the EU markets to begin in March... and run until Sept 2016 (just reflect on that for a moment)... there is little for the bears to look forward to across the broader term.
--
To be clear, I am absolutely open to an inter'4 wave... but then.. that was sought in 2012, 13, and even last year.
With sig' QE from the BoJ and ECB, it is going to be damn hard to see any kind of multi-week drop of more than 4-6%.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch.... back at 2pm
sp'weekly7
GLD, daily
Summary
*Metals sure were choppy this morning, Gold -$10 in early pre-market. There is obvious resistance soon to hit.... of the July high, some $40 higher.
--
So... an interesting day so far... and a key marker point for the ECB.
With QE-pomo for the EU markets to begin in March... and run until Sept 2016 (just reflect on that for a moment)... there is little for the bears to look forward to across the broader term.
--
To be clear, I am absolutely open to an inter'4 wave... but then.. that was sought in 2012, 13, and even last year.
With sig' QE from the BoJ and ECB, it is going to be damn hard to see any kind of multi-week drop of more than 4-6%.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for lunch.... back at 2pm
11am update - renewed push higher
Equities are seeing renewed strength.. helped by news of an int' rate decrease by the Danish central bank to -0.35% (yeah.. NIRP). A daily close in the sp'2050s looks very probable... along with VIX in the 17/15s. Metals remain choppy, Gold +$7.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*we already have a fractional break above the 50dma of sp'2046.
--
So... a few swings to wash out the weaker hands on both sides...and now its a case of how high...and how fast.
-
All those touting doom of 'Dragi will disappoint'... or 'low 1900/1800s'.. frankly should just shut up... and GO AWAY.
The ECB is buying T-bonds.... into autumn 2016... why would it stop there? Oh.. thats right... it won't.
-
Here is a question I will again pose another day....
Q. How long until the US/EU central banks start buying (at least officially) stocks/ETFs like the BoJ?
--
time to shop... back soon!
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*we already have a fractional break above the 50dma of sp'2046.
--
So... a few swings to wash out the weaker hands on both sides...and now its a case of how high...and how fast.
-
All those touting doom of 'Dragi will disappoint'... or 'low 1900/1800s'.. frankly should just shut up... and GO AWAY.
The ECB is buying T-bonds.... into autumn 2016... why would it stop there? Oh.. thats right... it won't.
-
Here is a question I will again pose another day....
Q. How long until the US/EU central banks start buying (at least officially) stocks/ETFs like the BoJ?
--
time to shop... back soon!
10am update - failed opening gains
Equities open moderately higher to sp'2045, but have quickly failed.. slipping to 2026. VIX is not showing any real concern though... only +1% in the 19s. Gold is choppy... +$1. Oil has turned lower, -0.1%
sp'60min
spdaily5
Summary
We have a clear break above declining resistance.. but it is now something of a mess.
Overall though... equity bulls should win this battle out.
-
*I'm still to fathom exactly what the ECB are planning to do... maybe I'll go dig for a press release with some balance sheet details.
What is clear... Draghi did fire the Bazooka this morning.
-
10.22am... NEWS UPDATE...
Danish central bank cut rates from -0.2%... to -0.35%.......
Equities regaining.. sp +9pts... the 2050s are now viable for a daily close.
Bears on the run!
sp'60min
spdaily5
Summary
We have a clear break above declining resistance.. but it is now something of a mess.
Overall though... equity bulls should win this battle out.
-
*I'm still to fathom exactly what the ECB are planning to do... maybe I'll go dig for a press release with some balance sheet details.
What is clear... Draghi did fire the Bazooka this morning.
-
10.22am... NEWS UPDATE...
Danish central bank cut rates from -0.2%... to -0.35%.......
Equities regaining.. sp +9pts... the 2050s are now viable for a daily close.
Bears on the run!
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2037 Metals are weak, Gold -$8. Oil is higher by a rather significant 2.7%
sp'daily5
Summary
*ECB announce rates unchanged.
Ironically, they announce they will announce 'further measures' at the press conf. at 8.30am EST
--
Good wishes for Thursday trading
-
8.37am... STILL waiting for the press conf...................
sp +9pts... 2041... above resistance... next level is the 50dma
8.40am... finally... Draghi appears... blaming broken elevators for the delay.. hmmm
8.43am... Unlike the US Fed... the way this is being announced is truly lame...
€60bn is the headline monthly purchase amount, but that includes the amount ALREADY being done.
Remember... the ECB are already buying junk from the banks.... I'm unsure of how much that amounts to.
In any case.. market on the rise... sp +18pts... we're set to open at 2050.
8.54am... a little chop... sp +10pts.... 2042... still..a clear break above resistance.
The SNB was the sign last week... but even more so... the EU monthly charts... but hey... those aren't important, right?
9.16am... A questioner trying to get Draghi to clarify the net balance sheet increase...
It would seem the €60bn is in addition to the existing QE of ABS (and other trash from the financials).
Still... its messy... the ECB has an appalling way of defining just what the hell they are doing.
sp'daily5
Summary
*ECB announce rates unchanged.
Ironically, they announce they will announce 'further measures' at the press conf. at 8.30am EST
--
Good wishes for Thursday trading
-
8.37am... STILL waiting for the press conf...................
sp +9pts... 2041... above resistance... next level is the 50dma
8.40am... finally... Draghi appears... blaming broken elevators for the delay.. hmmm
8.43am... Unlike the US Fed... the way this is being announced is truly lame...
€60bn is the headline monthly purchase amount, but that includes the amount ALREADY being done.
Remember... the ECB are already buying junk from the banks.... I'm unsure of how much that amounts to.
In any case.. market on the rise... sp +18pts... we're set to open at 2050.
8.54am... a little chop... sp +10pts.... 2042... still..a clear break above resistance.
The SNB was the sign last week... but even more so... the EU monthly charts... but hey... those aren't important, right?
9.16am... A questioner trying to get Draghi to clarify the net balance sheet increase...
It would seem the €60bn is in addition to the existing QE of ABS (and other trash from the financials).
Still... its messy... the ECB has an appalling way of defining just what the hell they are doing.
European equities set to jump
The French, German, and UK equity indexes are offering very strong bullish signs for the spring. If the ECB announce annual QE of at least €600bn, the EU and other world equity markets should continue higher for at least another 3-4 months.
*since we have the ECB tomorrow, I thought it merited taking a brief look at three of the EU markets...
France, monthly
Germany, monthly
UK, monthly
Summary
Not surprisingly, the powerhouse of the EU - Germany, is leading the way higher. Even the UK FTSE, having been stuck for two full years is poised for a break into the 7000s.
Indeed, if we see FTSE 7K within the next 2-4 months, it will bode for far higher levels in most world equity markets across the next TWO YEARS.
*I cover the world equity markets in full, the first Saturday of each month.
--
Looking ahead
The ECB are set to announce at 7am EST, with a Draghi press conf. at 8.30am EST.
*there is also the usual US weekly jobs data.
--
Goodnight from London
*since we have the ECB tomorrow, I thought it merited taking a brief look at three of the EU markets...
France, monthly
Germany, monthly
UK, monthly
Summary
Not surprisingly, the powerhouse of the EU - Germany, is leading the way higher. Even the UK FTSE, having been stuck for two full years is poised for a break into the 7000s.
Indeed, if we see FTSE 7K within the next 2-4 months, it will bode for far higher levels in most world equity markets across the next TWO YEARS.
*I cover the world equity markets in full, the first Saturday of each month.
--
Looking ahead
The ECB are set to announce at 7am EST, with a Draghi press conf. at 8.30am EST.
*there is also the usual US weekly jobs data.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities saw another day of moderate swings, (sp' range 2012/38), settling +9pts @ 2032. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside.. to new historic highs, next key resistance is sp'2110/20.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
Little to add.
Most indexes merely churning ahead of the ECB. Price structure remains broadly bullish, but it will be important for the bulls to break new historic highs within the next 2-3 weeks.
--
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
Little to add.
Most indexes merely churning ahead of the ECB. Price structure remains broadly bullish, but it will be important for the bulls to break new historic highs within the next 2-3 weeks.
--
Closing update from Riley
--
a little more later...
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