Looking ahead

It was a day of mostly minor chop in equity land, with the SPX seeing a low of 2955, but settling +8pts (0.3%) to 2973. Meanwhile, WTIC swung from $59.43, to settle -$2.84 (4.8%) to $56.25.

sp'weekly1b

WTIC daily

Summary

sp: regardless of how the remaining 1.5 trading days of this week proceed, its been a bullish week, having yesterday broken a new historic high of 2977. Note rising trend, currently offering support in the 2790s, and that will rise to the 2870s by end July... when the fed will initiate rate cut'1.

wtic: First, keep in mind yesterday's black candle, which saw a spike high of $60.28. It was a rough day for oil, as resistance zone of 60/62 held, with oil spiraling lower to $56.09. Today's candle offers zero sign of a s/t floor. Psy' 50 is a natural price magnet. Further, note the macd cyclical rollover.
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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see ADP jobs, intl' trade, weekly jobs, PMI/ISM serv', factory orders, EIA Pet'

*EARLY CLOSING* 1pm EDT
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For the guests out there, I hope I made today at least fractionally more interesting than it otherwise would have been.

Yours truly will resume (Cloudflare permitting) tomorrow at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, with the pre-market brief at 8.30am.

Goodnight from London
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One of the bizarre quirks of celestial mechanics

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2973. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate chop into the holiday break.

sp'daily5

Transports

Summary

spx: a day of mostly minor chop, seeing a low of 2955, but ending the day with a mini ramp, settling +8pts (0.3%) to 2973. Daily RSI 67s is certainly on the high side. Whilst Wednesday will lean to pre-holiday chop, the market will be vulnerable on Friday with the jobs data.

trans: settling -85pts (0.8% to 10420, as yesterday's spiky black candle played out. We have a macd cyclical rollover. At the current rate, we'll see a bearish cross in 2-3 days.
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VIX'daily3

With equities in chop mode, volatility remained subdued, swinging from a high of 14.30, to settle lower for a fifth consecutive day, -8.0% at 12.93, the lowest close since May'3rd.
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Looking ahead by 6pm EDT

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2973. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate chop into the holiday break.

sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: micro chop, leaning to the upside, and breaking a new intraday high.
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… and that concludes Tuesday. Aside from sig' downside in oil and sig' gains in gold, it was a pretty subdued day. Whilst the s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, nothing other than moderate chop can be expected ahead of the holiday break.

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notable stock: NVDA

First, note yesterday's black candle under the 200dma. Today, Nvidia unveiled the 'super' new graphics cards today. They are better price/performance, but still costly. From the initial reviews, they are superior to AMD on most metrics.

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notable stock: TSLA

Tesla continues to find it difficult to hold onto staff. For now, the stock is at least holding above key price threshold of the 180s or so.
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A fine end to the day. Have a good evening.
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more later on the VIX and Indexes by 6pm EDT

3pm update - into the close

US equities remain in minor chop mode. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the bears into the close/early Wednesday, when we have some key econ-data. VIX remains extremely subdued ahead of the 1.5 day holiday break. WTIC $56s, with Gold printing the $1412s.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Its been a day of micro chop. There are some little tremors out there though, not least within energy and gold.

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notable financial: BAC

Note yesterday's black spiky candle, having played out. Today's lower yields aren't helping.

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notable strength, AMRN

A very powerful day for Amarin, as it raised guidance. An eventual break >23s will offer vastly higher levels. Further, its arguably a valid takeover target, much as Array Biopharma (ARRY) was.

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notable stock: MU

Like many stocks yesterday, Micron settled with a black candle, and that played out.
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notable stock: RIG

WTIC $56s aren't helping energy stocks. Transocean broke a new historic low in June, and is clearly highly speculative. Note yesterday's black candle, and as I like to say... those are not to be dismissed lightly!

Time to catch some sun, back at the close...

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities remain in minor chop mode. Meanwhile, the precious metals are broadly higher, Gold +$20, with Silver +0.5%. The miner ETF of GDX is currently+3.2% in the $25.30s.

GLD daily

GDX daily

Summary

Gold/GLD: gold has swung from the $1386s to $1410s. Partly its just a s/t cyclical rebound, as after the June bullish settlement, any cooling waves are to be seen as such. M/t bullish to psy'1500, with secondary of 1650/1750.

GDX: the miners are seeing a strong rebound with gold.

Notable miner: Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Remains my personal favourite. M/t bullish, soft target $21s.
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Equities: sp'60min

Price action remains micro chop. Still due a bearish macd cross.

1pm update - oil and energy

US equities remain in minor chop mode, leaning on the weaker side. Meanwhile, WTIC is currently -3.3% in the $57s. The energy sector ETF of XLE is currently net lower for the week by -1.7% in the $62.60s.

USO daily

XLE weekly

Summary

WTIC/USO: oil printed $59.43, but has swung to the mid $56s. A move to test psy'50 appears underway, as resistance of 60/62 held.

XLE: energy stocks have been knocked lower with oil.
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Equities: sp'60min

Price action remains pretty muted. With each hour we're less overbought, although a bearish macd cross is due before the close, and that favours a net daily decline of some degree.

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*Special note.. ALL the rest of today's post will be on this site, as Cloudflare remains an issue.
I should be thankful to Google for this place as a backup!

12pm update - cheerleader time

US equities remain in micro chop mode, leaning on the weaker side. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears this afternoon, and into early Wednesday, when we have a wheel barrow of econ-data. VIX is showing near 100% mainstream complacency. WTIC has printed $56.66, with Gold $1403s.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

At the current rate, a bearish macd cross will be due before the close. We've six downside gaps to fill, although yes, the sixth at 2762/44, looks out of range, unless some seriously 'spooky news'. The only viable wild card for that would appear to be US/Iran.

Bond update... TNX

The 10yr has cooled to 1.98%, as the bond market continues to sound alarm bells.

Bond ETF: TLT

TLT remains broadly super strong, as yields/rates set to broadly decline into 2020.

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notable financial: BAC

Lower yields are not helping the financials.

time to check on the cheerleaders...

11am update - the chop continues

US equities remain in minor chop mode, with the VIX reflective of pre-holiday churn. WTIC has cooled into the $57s. Gold is holding moderate gains, just under the key $1400 threshold.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*my web host remains entirely offline, and I see its a 'Cloudflare' issue which has taken perhaps millions of sites off across the world. I'm guessing I'll just remain here for the remainder of today.

Little to add, as the market seems already content to just churn sideways. Tomorrow morning's econ-data will give an excuse for a moderate swing or two.. ahead of the 1pm close.
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notable weakness, FCX

Freeport lowered guidance yesterday (blaming copper prices), and the stock is still struggling. The stock/sector is arguably to seen as problematic until Copper >3.00.

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notable stock, F

Ford saw an especially bearish engulfing candle yesterday. Early weakness has drawn in some buyers.
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notable weakness, MU

Micron saw a black candle yesterday, and the stock is naturally lower this morning. Cyclically very high.
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notable strength: AMRN

Amarin is building powerful gains. A break >23s will make for one hell of a super-breakout.

time for a light lunch... 

10am update - opening chop

US equities open in minor chop mode, leaning on the weaker side. VIX remains subdued in the 14/13s. WTIC $58s. Gold $1395s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*subscriber note, posts will remain here, whilst my webhost remains entirely offline. Anyone in LA hear of any fires?
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So... a little chop... leaning weak... no drama. There is a fair amount of data tomorrow morning, but once that is out of the way, the market can be expected to churn into the holiday break.

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notable weakness, ROKU

Dragged lower on an RBC mixed downgrade, although holding p/t to $90. The stock was s/t bearish anyway.

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notable weakness: AMD

Yesterday's black candle is playing out.
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notable strength, AMRN

Amarin has raised guidance, and the stock is seeing a powerful jump. Things would turn wildly bullish if the double top of the 23s can be exceeded. Today's news does indeed bode for such an eventual super-breakout. 
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notable miner: GOLD

Barrick Gold, along with most of the other miners, is seeing a rebound. Cyclically though, the stock still looks s/t vulnerable. In the process of seeing a bearish macd cross... the cautious will wait at least another day.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a touch weak, SPX -3pts, we're set to open at 2961. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 96.30s. The precious metals are leaning upward, Gold +$7, with Silver +0.1%. WTIC is -0.5% in the $58s.

sp'60min

Summary

*Subscriber note. My site is currently offline, as my entire web host (based in LA) is seemingly 'off the grid'.  I will continue here today, unless otherwise stated.
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Yesterday broke a new historic high of 2977, we saw some cooling to 2952, and then a closing hour mini ramp (provisionally confirming the baby bull flag).

Cyclically, we're on the higher side, and due some cooling. Keep in mind, yesterday saw many stocks settle with black candles, which does lean bearish.. if only for this morning.

The real threat to the market will be the monthly jobs data this Friday morning, although as ever, even if the data is not pretty, perhaps the mainstream will see 'bad news as good news' ?


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Early movers

AAPL -0.4%
AMD -0.6%
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AMRN +8.8% to $20.90s, raised guidance. Things turn crazy bullish >23s.
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BAC -0.2%
BCS -0.1%, weak UK financials
BP +1.1%
DB -0.8%, weak EU financials
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FCX -1.0%, struggling after yesterday's lowered rev' guidance
GDX +1.3%, rebounding with gold
GOLD +1.3%, rebounding with gold
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MT -1.7%, weak EU industrials
MU -0.7%
NFLX -0.4%
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NKE -0.3%, more Kaepernick 'drama'
ROKU -3.1%, RBC mixed downgrade, holds p/t to $90
TSLA +0.6%, Tesla's 'head of Europe' is leaving
TWTR -0.1%
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VIX +0.6% in the 14s
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WDC -2.8%
X -0.3%, m/t horror
Z -0.5% in the 86s, soft support 80/79


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Overnight markets

Its broadly very subdued out there...

Japan: +0.1% at 21574
China: -1pt at 3043
Germany: currently -5pts at 12516
UK: currently +0.5% at 7533
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Have a good Tuesday