With equities ending the week on a significantly negative note, the VIX opened higher, and tested the key 20 threshold (intra high 20.67), settling +9.3% @ 20.08. Near term outlook offers renewed equity upside into the next FOMC (Dec'16th).
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*a very powerful net weekly gain of 40.1%.
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Suffice to say.. primary target of the 20 threshold has been reached.. along with the sp'2020s.
VIX is very likely close to maxing out. Even if sp'2010s - where the 50dma will be lurking next week, VIX will not likely be able to sustain price action much above 20/21.
US equity indexes closed significantly lower for a third consecutive day, sp -22pts @ 2023 (intra low 2022). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little more weakness, but there is high probability of renewed upside into the FOMC of Dec'16th.
sp'60min
Summary
closing hour action: minor chop around the 38% fib retrace of 2023/22
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.. and another week comes to a close at what remains one twisted casino.
The six week upward run has come to a rather harsh end, with very sig' net weekly declines.
It has been very pleasing to see the market cool from sp'2116 to the 2020s.. along with VIX back above the threshold.
Regardless of any further bearish action early next week, I have to guess the market will resume higher into mid December.. and by then we could be very close to new highs in the sp'2120/30s.
Have a good weekend everyone.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.... to wrap up the week
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Regardless of the exact close, all US equity indexes are set for very significant net weekly declines. Amusingly, the mainstream are already spooked, with talk that the Fed will now call off a rate rise until spring 2016. Ironically, a failure to raise rates will merely increase uncertainty in world capital markets, with the Aug' lows then becoming vulnerable.
sp'weekly1b
VIX' weekly
Summary
*VIX is set for a powerful net weekly gain... the weekly cycle is offering the 25/30 zone... although I find anything >25 simply unlikely in the current down wave.
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Clearly, sentiment is still weak... and there is obviously the issue of 'who wants to go long into the weekend?'.
It has unquestionably been a week for the equity bears.
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notable weakness... miners.
FCX, daily
Significantly lower for the 8th consecutive day, with the Dec' 2008 low of $6.29 looking vulnerable.
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updates into the close......... if things get more interesting.......
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3.02pm... So, we've effectively hit the 38% fib retrace. Next level will be the 50dma around 2010 next Mon/Tuesday.
notable weakness...
AAPL -2.5%, DIS, 1.3%
NFLX -4.4%... maybe Jessica Jones can fix that?
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3.16pm...
sp'daily5
An effective hit of the key fib' retrace. MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is getting close to the low side... we ain't likely going lower after next Tue/Wed.
Equity bears need to be somewhat careful at these levels.... as there is clear risk of 100pt ramp (at min) ... into the Dec' FOMC.
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3.28pm... It remains a case of 'who wants to go long into the weekend'.
Hard to call the close.. as there will be threat of some bears closing out for the weekend, which would give prices into the weekend, a micro spike higher.
notable strength: GDX +1.2%... which is rather impressive considering the broader market, and with Gold -$2
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3.38pm.. chop chop.. in the sp'2020s. VIX hits a new high of 20.67.... but in grand scheme of things.. its a lame level relative to Aug/Sept.
Despite a minor down wave from sp'2041 to 2028, the earlier floor is still holding. The market has declined for 7 of 8 days, and broadly.. another multi-week up cycle to challenge the May highs (in some indexes) is due. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is set for a net weekly decline of around -9%.
sp'60min
USO, weekly2
Summary
*another somewhat spiky equity hourly candle.
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On any basis, we're holding around the target zone of the 2020s....those who are short are getting a 'reasonable' level to exit into the weekend.
Those who want to go long are getting opportunity almost 5% lower from last Tuesday's high.
There can be no complaints today.
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notable movers...
JWN -16.7%
CSCO -6.9%
BAC -1.3%.. as 'fears' increase the Fed won't raise rates at the Dec' FOMC.
US equities have a short term floor of sp'2026 - with VIX maxing out at 20.12. Regardless of whether a weekly close in the 2030s, 40s or 50s, there is probable renewed weakness early next week.. at least to the 38% fib of sp'2023/22.
sp'daily5
Summary
So... was this morning a washout.. with sp'2026 a key low?
The 2020s were a key target, but I'd much rather see at least the 38% fib retrace of 2023/22 tested.
A further problem is that some stocks - namely BAC, only broke yesterday, and cyclically, another few down days are expected.
BAC, daily'2
It remains the case that I am not interested until a break <$17.
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Meanwhile.... London city ended the week on a sunny note.. well, between the torrential downpours.
The sp'500 remains lower for the third consecutive day, and notably.. the 7th daily decline of the last 8 trading days. VIX continues to flirt with the key 20 threshold. Commodities remain under pressure, Gold -$2, Silver -0.4%, with Oil -2.4% in the $40s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
From a pure cyclical perspective, we're very oversold on the hourly cycle.
Hourly equity candles are offering spike floors.... suggestive an initial floor is being formed.
Regardless of whether we close the week in the 2030s, or more likely 40/50s, it will be a net weekly decline for all the US indexes... with probable further downside next week.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time to see what the cheerleader maniacs on clown finance TV are saying...
US equity indexes continue to decline, with a new cycle low of sp'2027. The broader market is clearly pressured by WTIC Oil, on the edge of losing the $40s, -2.3%. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, Silver -0.5%. VIX has hit the key 20 threshold, currently net higher on the week by a very powerful 40%.
sp'daily5
USO, daily2
VIX'daily3
Summary
The bigger daily/weekly cycles for Oil remain outright bearish, sub $40s look due... and that sure won't help the broader US market.
As things stand, the sp' is currently net lower on the week by 67pts (3.2%), and this is clearly going to spook many in the mainstream.
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*I continue to favour BAC as a longer term bullish play... but the daily chart only saw an initial break of trend yesterday...
BAC, daily2
Cyclically, another 2-3 days lower look probable. Right now, I could only stomach going long somewhere around $16.50. For now... I'm more than content to just watch.
**to be absolutely clear, if the Fed do not raise rates at the Dec' FOMC, the broader market and especially the financials will (ironically) likely fall.
US equity indexes open on the weak side, breaking a new cycle low of sp'2037. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, the $1072 low remains in imminent danger. Oil is sig' lower for a third consecutive day, -1.6% in the $41s.
sp'60min
USO' daily2
Summary
*ongoing weakness in commodities is putting some distinct downward pressure on the broader market.
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Perhaps somewhat appropriate, a Panda bear opens the market on this Friday 13th...
Bearish open at the NYSE
From a cyclical perspective, the smaller 15/60min cycles are offering choppy weakness across today.
Best guess.. a weekly close in the 2050s.. with further weakness next week.
Other than a few individual stocks - such as BAC, the outlook is still for the market to hold above the sp'2K threshold.
Good morning. US equity futures are a little weak, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2041. USD is trying to stabilise, +0.1% in the DXY 98.70s. Commodities are bouncing, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is +0.4% in the $41s.
sp'60min
Summary
It is Friday the 13th, and for those who get easily spooked.... perhaps its best to stay in bed all day, with all windows/doors locked.
Seriously though, market still looks a little shaky... although I'm guessing today will end broadly flat.
VIX daily cycle though is still arguing for 20s... and that will equate to sp'2020s... but more viable... next Mon/Tuesday.
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notable early movers
Nordstrom (JWN) -21%.. after lousy earnings
Cisco Systems (CSCO) -5.9%.... post earnings upset
BAC -1.1%. as threat of rate hike lessens.
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Update from Oscar
I have followed Oscar since late 2008, and I certainly do respect his view. His comments in this video are somewhat spooky.
*the US market achieved a VERY powerful close last month, above the key 10MA. Yet... other world markets are yet to achieve that.
Certainly, I want to see NEW highs before year end in some indexes (Dow, sp, Nasdaq), along with other world markets also closing above their respective 10MAs. If not.... its a very serious problem.
For now.... I'm still guessing we battle broadly upward... helped by low rates and continuing QE (such as from the ECB and BoJ).
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Doomer chat with Hunter
I'll periodically slate Hunter for going soft on the Gold bugs (like the recent Hemke interview), but his end week news roundups are pretty good.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.5% @ 19596... a little weak into the weekend
China: -1.4% @ 3580. It will be VERY important for the Shanghai comp' to hold the 3400s.
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Have a good Friday.
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8.31am.. retail sales, m/m +0.1%.... weak.
PPI, -0.4%... pretty sig', not great for the macro-bulls.
Its not inspiring those seeking a rate hike.... BAC -1.4%
US equity indexes closed significantly lower, with the sp -29pts @ 2045. Chatter is naturally increasing in some of the more bearish corners of the financial sphere, about much lower levels into year end and across early 2016. Yet.. the October equity close argues strongly against sustained weakness.
sp'weekly1b
Copper, monthly
WTIC, weekly2
Summary
I do understand why some are getting a little excited in equity bear land. After all, commodity prices are seeing another rather powerful move lower, and that is clearly pressuring the broader market lower.
Yet.. having ramped from sp'1871 to 2116, even a retrace to the 2020s would be very natural.
For now, I see the current wave as merely one for existing shorts to offload... with an opportunity (for those that can stomach it) to go long into Christmas/New year.
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re: Copper, a net daily decline of -2.0% to $2.17. Sub $2.00 looks very probable, as King dollar - set for sustained action >DXY 100, will keep downward pressure on most commodities into 2016.
re: Oil. A second consecutive red candle on the 'rainbow' chart. Absolutely bearish, sustained price action under the $40 threshold looks imminent.
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Looking ahead
The week will conclude with an array of key data... PPI, Retail sales, Busin' invent, consumer sent'.
*Fed official Mester is speaking in the late morning, and Mr Market will be listening.
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US equities closed significantly lower, sp -29pts @ 2045. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.6% and -2.0% respectively. Near
term outlook continues to offer a natural retrace to the sp'2020s,
along with VIX briefly in the low 20s.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
*the second market leader - R2K, saw a very decisive break of rising trend. Next support is a touch lower in the 1150/40 zone. After that.. 1100.
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The sp' saw an opening break under the 200dma (2064)... and was broadly weak across the day. The daily close in the 2040s - with VIX 18s, is in line with the target of the 2020s by early next week.
