VIX cools into the weekend

With US equities ending the week on a significantly positive note, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -8.6% @ 16.50. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2020/40 zone, and that might briefly equate to VIX 15/14s.. before a key floor is solidified.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a net weekly VIX decline of -2.1%
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Suffice to add, a fourth consecutive weekly decline in volatility, having cooled from the Feb'11th high of 30.90, when sp'1810.

Next week's FOMC on Wednesday will make for a very natural equity top and corresponding floor in volatility.

The next big issue is how much might equities cool by end March, and can the VIX attain a monthly close >20.. or even within the 25/30 zone.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week on a significantly positive note, sp +32pts @ 2022. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2038/43 gap zone, before a key top is put in. After the FOMC of March 16th, equities should begin cooling.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing action hour: a fair amount of micro chop, but breaking a new multi-week cycle high of sp'2022.
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A fourth consecutive week for the equity bull maniacs, and almost everyone is back to 'hey.. its ALL fine now' mode.

Naturally, even yours truly is swayed a little by such bullish hysteria, but the bigger monthly charts are what matter.  Unless we see a monthly close >2020 or so... there is zero reason to drop the bigger bearish outlook.


The real issue is how far we might drop in the next multi-week down wave. I realise some are looking for just the 1700s, but I sure hope things get more dynamic than that. Preferably, at least the 1650/1550 zone by early summer.

In any case.. the FOMC is just 2.6 trading days away :)  Once this is out of the way, the equity bears have an open window into end month.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and piece across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - leaning higher into the weekend

US equities remain significantly higher, with the smaller 5/15min cycles offering renewed upside into the weekly close. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 96.10s. Metals are mixed, Gold -$11, whilst Silver +0.3%. Oil is helping the broader market mood, +1.2% in the $38s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Its been an interesting week, and regardless of the exact close... a fourth week for the equity bulls.

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notable weakness... TVIX, daily

Not surprisingly, TVIX is melting lower, set for a fourth consecutive net weekly decline. The $5.75/5.50 zone looks set to be the floor next week.
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back at the close.

2pm update - metals and miners cooling

With the broader US capital market in a rather bullish mood to end the week, the precious metals and related mining stocks have resumed cooling. Gold -$11, with the miner ETF of GDX -1.3% around $20.00. 


GLD, daily2

GDX, daily2

Summary

Its a little hard to envision a retrace completing to the target zone by next Wednesday afternoon, but regardless... that remains the basic target.
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Meanwhile...  notable hysteria in SDRL

.. although well below last Friday's high.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - holding significant gains

Price action is increasingly choppy, just under the 200dma of sp'2019, but regardless, we're still set for a fourth consecutive net weekly gain. For the moment, there seems zero reason for equity bears to get involved, not least.. as the weekend is fast approaching.


sp'60min

sp'monthly1b

Summary

We're now clearly above the monthly 10ma.. and as I'll incessantly be saying for the rest of the month, equity bears must be seeking at least some degree of cooling into end month.

Right now, a March close <2K is pretty important. Anything <1950 would be a bonus, not least if we're 2030/40s next Wednesday afternoon.

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notable weakness: miners, GDX -1.3%... still due a more sig' retrace.. relative to the gains since last December.
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back at 2pm

12pm update - Dow breaks the 200dma

Whilst the sp' is +26pts @ 2015, it is notable that the Dow has broken above the 200dma (17150s). There is a notable gap of 17405/425... equivalent to sp'2038/43. VIX remains in melt mode, -7% in the 16.70s. Oil has re-built gains, +1.1% in the $38s. Gold -$11.


Dow' daily

Dow' weekly2

Summary

As I'm aware some of you also agree, it is increasingly amusing seeing how most have now turned outright bullish again.. even calling an ultimate floor in Oil from $26.05.

If you believe Oil has floored, I got 600 million barrels to sell to YOU !
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notable weakness, TVIX -7% in the $6.30s... the $5s are now highly probable.

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time for lunch

11am update - ending the week on a sunny note

US equities continue to claw higher toward the 200dma (sp'2019), with the VIX remaining subdued in the 16s.  With the market mood rather bullish, the precious metals are losing a distinct fear bid, with Gold -$12. Oil has notably cooled, now +0.4% in the $38s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly1b

Summary

*it is highly notable that the upper daily bollinger is sp'2033.. whilst the lower is powering upward.. now at 1875.
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Market looks increasingly comfortable for rest of today, and in theory, it should hold together into Wednesday afternoon.

The gap zone of 2038/43 is certainly within range, but from there..  we should see another key lower high solidify.

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Here in London city....

Finally, some sunshine this week... and it almost feels like a real spring day.  Bullish!

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time to cook

10am update - washing out the bears

US equities break a new cycle high of sp'2010, with the VIX already cooling into the 16s. A fourth consecutive net weekly gain looks due, with the 200dma set to be tested early next week... ahead of the FOMC. Oil is helping the broader market mood, +2.0% in the $38s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

The week is set to end on a pretty bullish note... a weekly close >2K looks probable.

Whether you want to call the current move from 1969 to 2010 a fifth wave, what should be clear... having climbed from 1810, we're set to max out.. and the FOMC would make for a very natural exhaustion peak.

*post FOMC - in terms of initial downside, I'm looking to the lower daily bollinger, which by end of next week will be around 1930/20.

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notable strength...  SDLR, daily

Much like last Friday, the chasers are appearing in SDRL, seemingly in complete denial of the fundamental problems.
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time for some sun.....

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are broadly higher, sp +19pts, we're set to open at 2008. USD is +0.6% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals are naturally cooling, Gold -$8. Oil is +1.8% in the $38s.


sp'60min

Summary

So, we're set to open above yesterday's high.. and are back on track for a test of the 200dma next week.

Keep in mind, a Friday close >2K will result in a fourth consecutive net weekly gain.
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early movers...

TVIX -5% in the $6.40s..... the 5s still look viable before a key floor
SDRL +8%, but still set to disappear
CHK +3%, as above
GDX -1%, cooling with Gold
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Update from Mr C.



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Overnight action

Japan:  recovering into the close, +0.5% @ 16938
China: +0.2% @ 2810
Germany: currently +3.1% @ 9798

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Have a good Friday

Rarely a dull market

It was a very pretty dynamic day for US capital markets, with the sp'500 seeing a very significant swing from 2005 to 1969, but settling +0.4pts @ 1989. Even more notable, the USD, which swung from initial gains of 1.3% in the DXY 98.40s, to settle -0.9% in the 96.20s.


sp'weekly1b

USD, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, the bear market rally from sp'1810 is nearing completion.

I find it difficult to see how the equity bulls are going to manage to see any sustained price action above the 200dma - currently at sp'2020.
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Market chatter from Schiff



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Looking ahead

Friday will see the latest import/export prices.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.3pts @ 1989 (intra range 2005/1969). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.8% respectively. Near term threatens Friday weakness, but still, the market looks set for another push higher into next Wednesday's FOMC. From there... another key lower high should be solidified.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add.. a pretty interesting day in market land, with a strong morning reversal from sp'2005 to 1869, and then an afternoon recovery to settle fractionally higher at 1989.

Regardless of any opening Friday weakness... the market still looks set to make another push higher into the FOMC.

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a little more later...