Friday 20 December 2013

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed at new highs, with the sp +9pts @ 1819. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled up a rather significant +1.1% and 1.8% respectively. Market has a clear road for upside into the new year. VIX settled -2% in the upper 13s.




*some real chop into the expected.

For those who were touting QE-taper...along with major market declines, this has turned out to be a rather horrific week of twisted failure.

It has been a long week...that is it from me for today.

Have a good weekend...

Goodnight from London

*the next post will be late Saturday, on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - choppy end to the week

It is quad-opex, and some chop is very likely in this closing hour. Equity indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp' set for a close in the 1815/25 zone..a new historic weekly close. VIX looks set to melt lower into the weekend.



I am getting overly tired...thank the gods this week is about to wrap up.

Ohh great,  I see King O' is making an appearance to conclude the week.

3.26pm... VIX is creeping higher..but really...its still red, and its a long way down from the 16s of Wednesday afternoon.

..back at the close.

2pm update - go stare at this

It remains bemusing how so many are getting overly wrapped up in the minor noise..even via the daily charts. The hugely important monthly charts are clear, with near term upside into the Dow 16300/500 by end year. The old 15700 now a VERY strong floor.



There has been a lot of chatter over a looming a top in the sp'1820s..or even 1830/50s..yet..why would it stop there?

With taper out of the way - and another one unlikely until the March FOMC, the market looks fine for another 4-5 months.

The biggest failure of the doomer bears, has been the lack of acceptance that the primary trend remains to the upside. Even the 2011 summer/autumn drop didn't break the core trend, and the October turn was decisive enough to confirm another grand multi-month wave was coming.

Choppy afternoon ahead...after all,....its quad-opex.

Notable strength : STX

Very strong gains of 6%...and looks fine for the 65/70 zone by late spring.

1pm update - a very strong Dow

The Dow is now up over 520pts this week.. that is a very impressive 3.3%, and the weekly charts are absolutely clear. We have a breakout in November..and then a successful back test. We're now soaring into next year. Upside by late spring is 17000/500.



The remaining doomer bears should go stare at the above chart for a good hour.

Notable weakness: Ford

Target remains the low 14s..before upside into the late spring.

12pm update - ...and here are the 1820s

The main indexes are naturally higher, after the Thursday consolidation. A weekly close in the sp'1820s, and the Dow 16200/300s would be total confirmation of strength into January, and more broadly..the late spring. Metals are holding bounce gains, with Gold +$14



Well, the expected. Underlying MACD cycle on the daily charts is only now going positive, and we could easily rally for another 3-5 trading days. Even then, there is little reason why the first half of January won't take us into the sp'1875/1900 zone.

The Dow monthly breakout in November was key to all of this. lack of surprise.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for tea :)

11am update - the weekly chart tells the story

The market cruises to new highs..and a weekly close in the sp'1820s looks easily within reach. We have a very clear bullish engulfing candle on the weekly index charts, and this bodes for a good 3-5 weeks of further upside. Metals are continuing to bounce..but it is just that....a bounce.


GLD, daily


Wednesday was the turn.
Thursday was initial consolidation

...and today is just the trend resuming.

There is ZERO reason why the bulls can't manage gains into mid/late January..and by then..even the sp'1900s are viable.

10am update - new highs, as expected

The sp'500 breaks a new historic high - confirming the Thursday new high in the Dow. Bulls have a reasonable chance of a weekly close in the sp'1820s, and this opens up the 1830/40s next week. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$6. VIX Is falling into the weekend, -6% in the low 13s.




The strong close in the Dow..last month was more than enough to clarify the bigger picture.

We saw a very minor pull back..and with the taper uncertainty out of the way, this market now has a clear road to the upside.

Notable strength: STX, +2.6% in the $53s..and this looks to be a $100 stock..within two years.

AMZN breaks $ doubt rising on Christmas sales..which will help it to lose more money!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1812. Metals are similarly higher, with Gold +$2. Today will see the last significant QE of the year, and equity bulls should be seeking at least a moderately positive close, if not the 1820s.



Well, its almost the weekend :)

It does look like we'll see at least some further gains into the weekly close. There is a clear F flag on the index hourly charts, and with the QE today...I just can't see bears having any opportunity to knock this market lower.

*It is Quad opex a lot of chop..especially in the late afternoon.

9.35am... new historic high for the sp in the 1814s. 

Seeking a weekly close in the 1820s

It has been a very dynamic week for the market, slipping to sp'1767, before a hyper-ramp into the 1800s. With further QE this Friday, equity bulls should be seeking a weekly close in the 1820s, which would be extremely bullish into January.


Dow, weekly


The weekly charts are offering a clear bull flag spanning the past four weeks, and the Dow is arguably already confirming that outlook - with a new historic high today. With yesterdays clear turn - as confirmed in the VIX, there is little reason why the market won't broadly rally into mid/late January.

For me, the only issue is where we get stuck in the 1875/1925 zone next month, before a drop of 75-125pts. Even then, I'd still look for another wave higher..into the March/May period.

Looking ahead

The week concludes with GDP (final reading), market is expecting an unchanged Q3 growth rate of 3.6%.

Friday is there will likely be some very serious price chop across the day.

*there is the last sig' QE of 2013, around $3bn, bears beware!

The new crazy talk

The latest chatter out there is of a cycle top in mid January, often linked with some sort of analogy to the market crash of autumn 1929. It should be embarrassing to many that the 1929 analogy is still being thrown out there, and overlaid onto the current cycle.

Naturally, Zerohedge is leading the way with this sort of nonsense talk, and what happens when it is late spring, and we're in the sp'1900s..or even 2000s? Ohh yeah, you'll see the same people bring out the 1929 chart again, and start touting their relentless 'omg, the top really is comes the crash wave'.

As many other traders might also admit, I've found this market a real battle zone to trade over the past few five years, but hell, at least I've progressed beyond the 'call a top every day' phase.

The primary trend remains to the upside, lets see if we get a strong weekly close in the sp'1820s!

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw a day of consolidation, with the sp -1pt @ 1809. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed unchanged and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is very bullish, with a weekly close in the sp'1820s looking very viable.





The weakness in the R2K is kinda interesting, but really, its only minor, and with the Dow breaking a new historic high today, I don't place any importance on the R2K decline.

Broader trend remains strongly to the upside.

Year end target remains, sp'1830/50, with Dow 16300/500s

a little more later...