Saturday, 29 March 2014

Weekly cycles flip again

Despite a sixth opening equity bounce, the US market ended the week on a somewhat weak note. Across the week, most indexes closed with net declines, lead by the R2K and Nasdaq, lower by -3.5% and -2.8% respectively.

sp'weekly7c - best bearish case


So...we closed the week with a blue candle, a provisional 'warning of trouble' in my view. We have traded within a pretty tight trading range for five weeks now, and it won't last much longer.  Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) ticked lower this week, and price pressure remains moderately bearish.

Best near term outlook for the bears, remains the following...

sp'60min1b - H/S formation

For the above scenario to have any hope, we need a simple break of the neckline, but bears shouldn't be overly confident until <1830.

Thanks to all those who said hello this week, it makes all the difference.

Goodnight from London
*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes