VIX a little higher

Whilst US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, the VIX remained relatively subdued (intra high 16.04), settling +3.4% @ 15.24. Near term outlook briefly threatens the 14/13s - as Yellen is set to appear, but a broad climb to the key 20 threshold looks due to begin.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*note the upper daily bollinger around the key 20 threshold.. along with the 200dma in the 18s.
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Little to add.

Equities are likely close/if not already maxed out, with the VIX having likely floored in the 13s.

A turn upward in volatility is due.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2037. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a serious attempt to clear sp'2056, but it will likely fail. With three trading days left of March/Q1.. things are about to liven up.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: extremely subdued nano-scale chop.

A notable intraday range of 2042/31... a mere 0.5%.
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On what was a semi-holiday trading session, there is little to add.

Tomorrow will really help to wake everyone up. The Tuesday close could be rather important.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - tired market

US equities remain in micro chop mode, and look set to remain so until the Yellen appears. As things are, the cyclical setup is far better for the bears than it was last Wed/Thursday. VIX remains broadly subdued, higher by a relatively lame 3% in the 15.20s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

... suffice to add, one of those days when I question myself for appearing today.

At least tomorrow.. and the rest of the week will wake everyone up.. one way or another.

back at the close.......

2pm update - GE should concern the equity bears

Whilst the broader market remains in moderate holiday chop mode, there is notable strength in the corporate giant of General Electric (GE), which has seen a decisive break above the late Dec'2015 high. If GE is a pre-cursor to the broader market, the bears are not going to be able to reverse things.


GE, daily

GE, monthly

Summary

Yes, its just one stock, but today's gains can't be ignored.
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notable weakness, TVIX, lower by around -4% at the $5.00 threshold (not that such a threshold means very much for a leveraged instrument).
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back at 3pm.......

1pm update - continued moderate chop

US equities remain in chop mode, but clearly, still leaning on the upward side. With the sp +4pts @ 2040, the recent high of 2056 is indeed very close.... yet even with some bold talk from the Yellen, a new cycle high looks difficult. Metals are broadly flat, whilst Oil is -0.8%.


sp'daily5

Summary

Eyes on the 50dma.. currently at sp'1944...  and which will be in the 1960s in early April.

Even the most bearish of bears should recognise a sustained move <1950 in any initial down wave into April looks out of range.

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notable weakness... TVIX, daily

With the VIX still broadly subdued, the VIX instruments remain vulnerable.
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.. I really should cook. Hmm

12pm update - sold to someone

US equities remain in micro chop mode. What should be clear, equity bears still lack any downside power, whilst the bulls are arguably exhausted from last weeks high of sp'2056. VIX broke to 16.04 in early trading, but the 14s.. even 13s look viable with the Yellen tomorrow.


sp'60min

GLD, daily2

Summary

re: Gold, remains increasingly weak. Mr Market would probably like to wash the $1200 long-stops out, before the next move to the $1300 threshold. Note the current black-fail daily candle, it does not bode well for tomorrow.
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Little to add, on what is a naturally subdued day.

Things will unquestionably liven up tomorrow lunch time, as Yellen will be get blanket coverage on clown finance TV.

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Here in London city...

In one of the many property developements in the city, most homes are still being sold well before the associated new roads are even finished. Outside the city - in most surrounding dormitory towns, its not much different either. Chronic shortages... not least partly due to the legal (and otherwise) immigrants buying.

Yes, the 'super high end' in the core of the city has cooled, but the mid/low tier remains very strong.

Anyone on even an average income (London: $50,000 or so) have become priced out of the city. Its not a good situation.. unless you're already an owner.

*in case you are curious, typical UK 'property tax' - levied annually to all homes in the UK, whether owned or rented, is roughly $2000 for a 1-2 bedroom, to around $3000 for 3-4 bedroom.

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time to cook

11am update - already tedious

US equities remain moderately choppy, in what is still holiday trading mode. Price structure on the hourly chart is offering a bear flag, suggestive of weakness into the Yellen event. Meanwhile, metals are a little higher after overnight declines, Gold +$3, with Silver +0.5%.


sp'60min

GLD, daily2

Summary

re: Gold. Further downside to the GLD 114s still seems probable, not least as we saw 115s overnight.

Miners are already under pressure, GDX -1.3%
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As for tedious... why is anyone even watching today? Almost all of the EU is shut, and there simply isn't anything to sway the broader market.

notable weakness, FCX -2%... struggling around the 200dma.

10am update - opening shaky gains

US equities open a little higher, but the gains are clearly a little shaky, with some indexes already fractionally red. However, the equity bears can't overly excited about any pre-Yellen downside. The hourly cycle is still highly suggestive of the market holding together into late Tuesday morning.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*price structure on the hourly equity chart is a clear bear flag, but I don't much like it.. not least as we're still effectively in holiday trading mode.
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Little to add, on what will be a subdued day of moderate chop... with underlying price action still leaning to the upside.

A new cycle high >2056 looks very difficult, as increasingly, many are looking to sell within the sp'2040/55 zone.

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notable weakness, CHK, daily

Not surprisingly, with just a touch of main market weakness, the junk stocks are already significantly lower. I guess you could argue CHK is sporting a large bull flag, but fundamentally, the company looks set to disappear.
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stay awake.. if you can.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 2042. USD is broadly u/c in the DXY 96.20s. Metals are flat. Oil is fractionally higher in the $39s.


sp'60min

Summary

It would seem today will be pretty subdued - to be expected on what is Easter Monday, but leaning on the upside.

The key issue is whether we can break last weeks high of sp'2056. That sure won't be easy, even if Yellen 'inspires' tomorrow lunch time.

Indeed, things get real interesting from 11am-1pm tomorrow, if we haven't broken >2056.

*first soft downside target is the 50dma/lower daily bollinger.

By month end/Thursday... its viable we could settle near the 2K threshold - even if we're 2045/55 tomorrow morning.

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Update from Oscar



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Overnight action

Japan: moderate chop, +0.8% @ 17134
China: weakness into the close, -0.7% @ 2957

Germany, UK, and most other EU markets.... CLOSED.
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Have a good Monday