Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.3pts @ 1851 (intra high 1881). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and u/c respectively. Despite ongoing shaky price action, near term outlook remains unchanged, with probable further upside back above the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting earnings from Tesla and Twitter.
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It was a really mixed day..  with the morning significant declines fading into the afternoon, with a fair few indexes closing net lower.

Clearly, it was not a great day for the bulls, but neither was it particularly dire.


For now, unless rising trend is broken - which at the Friday close will be around sp'1835, equity bears are still likely going to need to be patient for another weeks or two.
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notable movers...

AA -3%
CHK -12%, as talk of bankruptcy increases
DIS -3% in the $88s, despite good earnings
SDLR -5%, as energy prices struggle.

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Oh lookie... AMZN is launching a buy back...

Clearly, that will solve the underlying problem of poor profitability, right?
 --

.. and another...

As noted.. clearly buy backs will solve ALL problems, right, ???
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TLSA earnings... market expected 10 cent EPS.... actual : negative -87 cents.... stock initially implodes to $135, but is already back to $150... and vulnerable to 180s.

Maybe the TSLA problems could be solved with a buy back? They just need to issue more shares or corp' debt.. to fund such a buy back. That will work.. yes?
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oh noes.. ex-momo stock TWTR..  EPS beat.. but market breaks the stock to a new historic low of $12.84

So... we're in the $12s... and sp' ain't even 1700s yet.  If sp'1600s.. TWTR will be sub $10.  Ohh the humanity!

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A daily wrap will appear at 8pm EST.

1pm update - Yellen finally wraps up

Its been a morning of significant swings for US equities, but broadly.. the trend should be clear, we're headed higher into next week. The only issue for the remainder of this week is whether we'll see a weekly close above.. or a little below the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'daily5b

VIX'daily3

Summary

*note yesterday's black-fail candle in the VIX, with a corresponding hollow-red reversal candle for the sp'500. Its a pretty clear short term turn.
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Note the 50dma, now at sp'1977. By late next week, it'll be around 1965.. and to me.. that will be a PRIME opportunity to get involved on the short side.

As for Yellen, I think she'll be glad this mornings somewhat harsh questioning is over. Yet.. the Senators will be waiting for her tomorrow. Will they go easier on her?
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notable stock...  TSLA, daily

Tesla have results at the close. No doubt, a lot of the attention will be on the next car, one that some say will cost a mere $25k (after subsidies).

From a price perspective, I'd be inclined to see upside to the $180s., but yes.. its insanely over-valued, much like AMZN and NFLX.
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I'm tired, and considering what I see ahead in March/April.... I'm easing off from here for a while.

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... well, its now 1.06pm.. and Yellen still ain't wrapped up as they had planned. In any case...

Back at the close   

12pm update - continuing swings

The sp'500 has naturally seen a reaction in the 1880/90 zone, already retracing back around 1.2%. Broadly though, a net daily gain still looks probable, with further upside into next week. Metals are mixed, Gold +$6, whilst Silver is u/c. Oil is seeing rather strong swings, now -2.5%, back in the $27s


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

So, despite a net weekly draw, Oil is back on the slide, back to the lows from Jan'20th - when equities were flooring at sp'1812.

WTIC Oil in the teens looks highly probable... the only issue is whether it trades there for just a few days... weeks.. or months. Those seeking sp <1500 this year, are going to need the latter.
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As for equities, yes its choppy... but the market has just managed to battle through Yellen, and another oil report.

Unless rising trend - which at the close of today @ 1830 - crucially.. under the Monday low of 1834, is broken... there is little reason to be bearish in the immediate term.

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VIX update from Mr T .




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time for tea

11am update - Yellen trying to placate

US equities are battling to hold significant gains, with first resistance in the sp'1880/90 zone. As things are, a weekly close around the 1900 threshold is very viable, keeping open the door to further gains to the 1950/70 zone next week... before it all unravels again.


sp'60min

Summary

*oil inventories: -0.8 million barrels.
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Little to add..

Market looks set for a net daily gain... with further upside across much of next week.
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Here in London city..

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time for an early lunch

10am update - here comes Yellen

US equities open moderately higher.. but the early market action is a little shaky. However, the Yellen press release is already out, and the market is clearly not imploding. Equity bulls just need Oil to turn higher today, and that should cement broader upside into next week.


sp'60min

sp'daily5b

Summary

First upside target is the sp'1880/90 zone... a weekly close there looks probable.

Unless 1834 is taken out.... I'm seeking the 1950/70 zone within 7-10 trading days.

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notable weakness... DIS, daily

Unquestionably good earnings... but Mr Market is just still selling it. An underlying sign of the broader downward action.

It is important to note that DIS initially spiked on earnings to $95 in Tuesday AH trading, and that would remain a target on any bounce into next week.
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Well... lets see what Yellen has to say in the Q/A...

... with the EIA oil report at 10.30am

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +21pts, we're set to open at 1873. USD is u/c in the DXY 96.00s. Metals continue to cool, Gold -$3. Oil is +0.7%, ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. overnight futures have swung higher from initial moderate declines.

Today will be about whether opening gains can hold... and how the market will interpret whatever Yellen decides to say.

From a pure cyclical perspective, both the daily and weekly cycles are still suggestive of another push higher, before the market can break into the 1700s.

Frankly... the sp'1960/70s look probable... although I realise many will disagree, and are still holding short.

I'm trying to remain patient before launching a big short.
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early movers...

DIS -3.6% in the $88s.... despite good earnings. Market is still using ESPN as an excuse to sell this superb company. Renewed strength looks due... so anyone currently short is getting a bonus opportunity to exit.

GDX -1.2%... as the precious metals look set to cool/retrace into next week.

TSLA +2.5%... with earnings at the close of today.
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Overnight action..

Japan: another rough day, -2.3% @ 15713
Germany: currently +2.3% @ 9082... but the broader trend looks dire.. at least to 8K.
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Have a good Wednesday

Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, with the sp -1pt @ 1852 (intra range 1834/68). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.6% respectively. The VIX managed a minor gain of 2.1% @ 26.54.  Near term outlook is for renewed upside, as Yellen will very likely attempt to inspire/placate the market.


sp'daily5b

VIX'daily3

Summary

re: daily5b: I'm refraining from sticking any numbers or letters on the recent market up/down cycles. Seems largely pointless.

What should be clear though, today's daily candle was a rather interesting reversal, with a floor spike from 1834. A simple extrapolation of the previous up wave offers 1960/70 in the latter half of next week.

It should remain clear though, sustained action >2K looks out of range in any Yellen inspired bounce.
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re: VIX. The opening hourly candle was a classic black-fail candle, with the closing daily candle also of the black fail type. Broadly, its highly suggestive we have a short term exhaustion peak.

A brief foray under the key 20 threshold looks probable next week if sp >1947.
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Everything is rock solid in DB.. yes?

Yeah... solid as quicksand

This morning Deutsche bank were fighting to stem the ongoing stock price collapse. Yet, by definition, such talk is rarely a good sign. Usually such corporate statements - especially those from bankers, are due to the realisation that there actually is the threat of a problem. DB will be one to watch this March/April.


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Looking ahead

Wednesday will see the latest EIA oil report, and that will clearly be rather important.

However, the day will centre around the CEO of print central, as Fed chair Yellen is set to testify to the US house. A press release of pre-prepared remarks will likely 'inspire' the market.

The market will be watching how Yellen replies to questions, which will last at least until 12pm.

Yellen is on her way

Goodnight from London