Wednesday 26 September 2018

Rate hike number eight

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 2905. Nasdaq comp' -0.2% at 7990. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers early Thursday weakness, but leaning upward into end month/Q3.




As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps to a new target range of 2.00-2.25%. The sp' saw a minor spike upward, only to swing lower, filling the downside gap to 2907. I could almost understand some getting a little excited at the post FOMC cooling, but its really not that unusual for a fed day.

Volatility picked up with the late day equity swing lower, but the VIX still settled in the 12s, indicative of underlying capital market confidence.

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just two trading days left of the month/Q3, the DAX is currently +0.2% at 12385. This is an impressive turnaround, and does offer hope of renewed upside into year end.

A fine autumnal day, 70f, sunny
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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