VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Equities look set to claw upward into Jan'2016, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
Monday, 21 December 2015
VIX naturally cooling
With equities closing moderately higher, the VIX was naturally weak across the day, settling -9.7% @ 18.70. Near term outlook offers upside to at least the sp'2050/60s, and if sp'2080/2110s by year end..the VIX will continue to cool to the low teens.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Equities look set to claw upward into Jan'2016, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Equities look set to claw upward into Jan'2016, and that would likely equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately higher sp +15pts @ 2021. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for seasonal upside, at least to 2050/60s, but an attempt to close the year in the 2100s remains very viable.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a spike floor of 2007, with a pretty strong surge into the close.
--
Well, after the particularly weak Friday quad-opex close, there was a fair bit of crash chatter across the weekend. Not surprisingly though, none of that nonsense talk was right, as the market is set for increasingly subdued conditions into year end.
Any talk of collapse, crashes.. or other drama relating to the 'end of the world' is to be dismissed as crazy talk.
Those equity bears of the more balanced nature should merely have eyes on whether the US and other world markets can claw back above the monthly 10MAs*.
-
*I realise there are other valid averages/measures to delineate whether there really is a threat of a major down wave in Q1/Q2 2016, but for me.. the 10MA remains a favoured one.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a spike floor of 2007, with a pretty strong surge into the close.
--
Well, after the particularly weak Friday quad-opex close, there was a fair bit of crash chatter across the weekend. Not surprisingly though, none of that nonsense talk was right, as the market is set for increasingly subdued conditions into year end.
Any talk of collapse, crashes.. or other drama relating to the 'end of the world' is to be dismissed as crazy talk.
Those equity bears of the more balanced nature should merely have eyes on whether the US and other world markets can claw back above the monthly 10MAs*.
-
*I realise there are other valid averages/measures to delineate whether there really is a threat of a major down wave in Q1/Q2 2016, but for me.. the 10MA remains a favoured one.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - positive chop into the close
US equity indexes look set for minor chop - leaning on the positive side, into the close. The setup for Tuesday offers slightly better opportunity for sustained upside, but with increasingly subdued price action. USD remains -0.3% in the DXY 98.30s. Gold +$13. Oil is battling to close flat... currently -0.1%.
sp'60min
Summary
At the current rate, we'll see a bullish MACD cross on the hourly cycle tomorrow at 10am. The only econ data of note is GDP. A marginal upgrade (>2.1%) to Q3 sure would help.
Other than that... a naturally subdued day.
Anyone still think the crash wave many were touting last week (not least on the twisted Zerohedge) is going to occur in the remaining 6.5 trading days of 2015?
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notable weakness.. anything related to DIS.
DIS, daily
The opening $110s sure didn't last long, and its notable the swing to $105 is the lowest level since mid Oct'. There is considerable support in the 104/100 zone. Right now.. a break >120 looks out of range for at least 6-8 weeks.. and that would be on the basis that the market doesn't start to implode by late January.
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3.13pm... CMG, having new issues with e-coli
5min
Urghh. Next support is not until the 450/440 zone... the April 2012 high.
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3.21pm.. Seen on a multi-year basis... CMG sure has been struggling since July..around $750.
Not too pretty.
sp'60min
Summary
At the current rate, we'll see a bullish MACD cross on the hourly cycle tomorrow at 10am. The only econ data of note is GDP. A marginal upgrade (>2.1%) to Q3 sure would help.
Other than that... a naturally subdued day.
Anyone still think the crash wave many were touting last week (not least on the twisted Zerohedge) is going to occur in the remaining 6.5 trading days of 2015?
--
notable weakness.. anything related to DIS.
DIS, daily
The opening $110s sure didn't last long, and its notable the swing to $105 is the lowest level since mid Oct'. There is considerable support in the 104/100 zone. Right now.. a break >120 looks out of range for at least 6-8 weeks.. and that would be on the basis that the market doesn't start to implode by late January.
--
3.13pm... CMG, having new issues with e-coli
5min
Urghh. Next support is not until the 450/440 zone... the April 2012 high.
-
3.21pm.. Seen on a multi-year basis... CMG sure has been struggling since July..around $750.
Not too pretty.
2pm update - renewed upside
As expected, US equities have seen another push back upward, as there really isn't much downside pressure.. ahead of the holiday break. The hourly cycle is offering more sustained upside from the Tuesday open, and right now, a Thursday/weekly close in the sp'2050s is just about within range.
sp'60min
Summary
At the current rate, the hourly MACD cycle will see a bullish cross early tomorrow, and that should solidify sp'2005 as a double floor.... with broad (if often choppy) upside into early 2016.
Unless some spooky news appears... this market is headed up to make one more attempt to break a new high.
--
notable strength...
CNX, daily
Much like TCK, and many of the other miners, CNX is seeing a very sig' bounce of 7% in the high $7s, but then, it remains utterly destroyed, having started the year in the $33s. The US Govt's war on coal has unquestionably been a great success.
sp'60min
Summary
At the current rate, the hourly MACD cycle will see a bullish cross early tomorrow, and that should solidify sp'2005 as a double floor.... with broad (if often choppy) upside into early 2016.
Unless some spooky news appears... this market is headed up to make one more attempt to break a new high.
--
notable strength...
CNX, daily
Much like TCK, and many of the other miners, CNX is seeing a very sig' bounce of 7% in the high $7s, but then, it remains utterly destroyed, having started the year in the $33s. The US Govt's war on coal has unquestionably been a great success.
1pm update - holding a double floor
US equities are holding what is now a double floor of sp'2005. Renewed upside looks due into the late afternoon. Equity bulls should be pushing for a few daily closes above the 50/200 day MA's in the sp'2060s, but those look out of range in what will be an increasingly subdued short week.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
I realise some will be touting the failure to hold early gains, but really.. underlying price pressure is ticking upward.. not down.
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notable weakness...
TWTR, daily
One of the worse performers, TWTR has now lost over a third since the $32s in late October. A company clearly in disarray... unable to grow the userbase, and finding it difficult to turn even a mediocre profit.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
I realise some will be touting the failure to hold early gains, but really.. underlying price pressure is ticking upward.. not down.
-
notable weakness...
TWTR, daily
One of the worse performers, TWTR has now lost over a third since the $32s in late October. A company clearly in disarray... unable to grow the userbase, and finding it difficult to turn even a mediocre profit.
12pm update - testing the Friday low
US equities have seen some distinct cooling, from the morning high of sp'2022 to 2005. Broadly though, market still looks set to claw upward this week, and into Jan'2016. USD continues to cool, -0.4% in the DXY 98.30s. Gold is holding sig' gains of $13, with Silver +1.4%. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.7% in the $35s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
Well, it sure hasn't been the dire bearish morning that some of the maniacs were touting last week. Neither is it super bullish though, as we've seen some distinct sell programs in the sp'2020s.
For any normal person... very little of this market merits any attention for the remainder of the year.
--
VIX update from Mr P.
--
time for lunch
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
Well, it sure hasn't been the dire bearish morning that some of the maniacs were touting last week. Neither is it super bullish though, as we've seen some distinct sell programs in the sp'2020s.
For any normal person... very little of this market merits any attention for the remainder of the year.
--
VIX update from Mr P.
--
time for lunch
11am update - holding gains
US equity indexes are holding moderate gains, as the post-FOMC down wave from sp'2076 was indeed complete at 2005. USD is starting to cool, -0.2% in the DXY 98.40s, and that is no doubt helping commodities. Gold +$12, with Oil battling to claw from early lows, -0.4%.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to say. We're clearly seeing some selling in the low sp'2020s.
Considering the hourly MACD cycle though.. at the current rate we'll see a bullish cross in 3-4 trading hours... so we'll either churn out a bull flag by the close... or just push higher again later in the day.
--
notable strength... miners
TCK, daily
A powerful gain of around 8%.. but 8% of a small number still keeps the stock in the $3s... having started the year in the $13s. A horrible year for miners/energy sector... yet there is still little sign of industry capitulation.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to say. We're clearly seeing some selling in the low sp'2020s.
Considering the hourly MACD cycle though.. at the current rate we'll see a bullish cross in 3-4 trading hours... so we'll either churn out a bull flag by the close... or just push higher again later in the day.
--
notable strength... miners
TCK, daily
A powerful gain of around 8%.. but 8% of a small number still keeps the stock in the $3s... having started the year in the $13s. A horrible year for miners/energy sector... yet there is still little sign of industry capitulation.
10am update - opening gains
US equities start the short week on a moderately positive note, although there are some distinctly shaky signs out there... not least as Oil remains weak, -1.0%. A daily close in the sp'2020s looks probable, as the wave from 2076/2005 is complete. Metals are notably strong, Gold +$10, with Silver +1.1%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. we're somewhat higher, but clearly... with it being Christmas week, price action is going to be increasingly subdued. I guess that will give me time to highlight other things.
--
notable mover...
DIS, daily
Opening gains to $110, but like Friday... a rather severe opening reversal... already negative. There really isn't any support until the 104/100 zone.
Maybe the stock would have risen if box office sales were lousy? After all, its a twisted market.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. we're somewhat higher, but clearly... with it being Christmas week, price action is going to be increasingly subdued. I guess that will give me time to highlight other things.
--
notable mover...
DIS, daily
Opening gains to $110, but like Friday... a rather severe opening reversal... already negative. There really isn't any support until the 104/100 zone.
Maybe the stock would have risen if box office sales were lousy? After all, its a twisted market.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +13pts, we're set to open at 2018. USD is u/c in the DXY 98.70s. Gold +$3. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.7% in the $35s.
sp'60min
Summary
As I noted a few times in the Friday closing hour, the setup favours the bulls. Whether or not you agree we've seen a micro 5 wave decline complete, is not important. What should be clear.. with quad-opex out of the way, the bulls now have an opportunity to claw higher into year end.
It will be a short 3.5 day week. Thursday can be written off as nano-chop... and Wed' will likely be pretty quiet.
Best guess.. we'll battle to the 2040/50s by Thursday 1pm.
First resistance of 2075/80 look out of range until next week. Further, re-taking the 50/200dma (2055/65 zone) will also be tough, but cyclically and seasonally, it looks very probable.
--
notable early movers....
DIS +1.3% in the 109s, after Star Wars breaks box office records.
AAPL +1.2%... but remaining well under old support
FCX +1.8%...
--
Update from Hunter with Greyerz
Chatter on the bond market, which is certainly an important issue for 2016.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: latter day recovery, but still -0.4% in the 18900s
China: solid gains, +1.8% @ 3642.
-
Have a good Monday
sp'60min
Summary
As I noted a few times in the Friday closing hour, the setup favours the bulls. Whether or not you agree we've seen a micro 5 wave decline complete, is not important. What should be clear.. with quad-opex out of the way, the bulls now have an opportunity to claw higher into year end.
It will be a short 3.5 day week. Thursday can be written off as nano-chop... and Wed' will likely be pretty quiet.
Best guess.. we'll battle to the 2040/50s by Thursday 1pm.
First resistance of 2075/80 look out of range until next week. Further, re-taking the 50/200dma (2055/65 zone) will also be tough, but cyclically and seasonally, it looks very probable.
--
notable early movers....
DIS +1.3% in the 109s, after Star Wars breaks box office records.
AAPL +1.2%... but remaining well under old support
FCX +1.8%...
--
Update from Hunter with Greyerz
Chatter on the bond market, which is certainly an important issue for 2016.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: latter day recovery, but still -0.4% in the 18900s
China: solid gains, +1.8% @ 3642.
-
Have a good Monday
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