Friday 22 November 2013

Volatility melts into the weekend

With the main indexes closing moderately higher, the VIX was naturally weak, and melted lower into the weekend, settling -3.2% @ 12.26. Near term outlook remains for the VIX to stay in a tight 13/11 range, before a minor spike to 15/16 in mid December. Across the week, the VIX gained +0.6%.





There is little to add. The VIX remains very low..and at best..might spike into the mid teens in mid December.

I see zero chance of the VIX >20 until late Jan/Feb.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed the week on a high, with the sp +8pts @ 1804. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.3% and +0.5% respectively. Next week looks set for further moderate gains...somewhere in the 1810/20s. VIX continues to reflect a market that is utterly fearless of the future.



...and another weekly gain for the US indexes, the seventh consecutive gain.

No doubt many of the bears will be in a bad mood for another weekend..and I do sympathise..a little. I have been posting for the past few months, the big monthly charts are very clear. This is especially the case for the world equity indexes..all of which are still offering another 10/20% higher by late spring 2014.

It has been a 'useful' week for yours truly, I continue to leave the indexes to themselves...and will focus on specific stocks or commodities.

Have a good weekend everyone!

*weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - new highs to end the week

The main indexes are ending the week, having broken new historic highs in the Dow, SP'500, and the R2K. There little reason to believe the current trend will not broadly continue for the remainder of the year. Metals remain weak, despite a USD, -0.5%.


Dow, daily


I would never consider myself particularly adept at this 'chart nonsense', yet, what does bemuse me, is how AFTER a clear break of a six month sideways trend - seen in the Dow, we have people calling for a new significant wave lower.

Seriously? Are they even looking at ANY charts spanning the past 6-12 months?

As I noted many months ago...any close >15800..opens up 16k..if not also 17k.

..and that remains the target for late spring 2014... Dow 17000s, which probably equate to R2K in the 1300s, and SP' in the 1950/2050 zone.

It is at that point..I will be looking for an intermediate top.

3.08pm.. It is Queen cheer leader - Maria Bartiromo's last day on clown finance TV' 2 today. She is moving to FOX business..a channel I can't even receive. The horror!

Are we off the lows of the day yet?

Metals look weak....I'll be looking for a significant gap lower at the Monday open. 

3.34pm...quiet chop to end the week. Regardless of the exact close...we've broken new index highs..and frankly, anyone touting anything bearish needs to be dismissed as plain crazy.

Even worse...if we see a major wave lower next year (as I still suspect), the uber-doomers are going to get their trading accounts nuked when the market rebounds in late 2014.

After all, you know Yellen wants to spin the money printers even faster >$100bn a month.

2pm update - battling to hold the 1800s

The main indexes are battling hard to hold moderate gains, with a viable close in the sp'1800s. Regardless of the closing level, broader outlook is bullish across next week. Metals remain weak, Gold +$1, Silver -10 cents (-0.5%), with further declines likely next week.

sp'60min (with metals)


*again, I'll note a chart, which is how I often follow a few things at the same time.

Indexes are certainly toppy in terms of the hourly cycle, but with a lack of downside power, we'll more likely just trundle around into the close.

Metals are still holding within their starkly bearish near term down trend. There is no reason why they won't see further declines next week.and the bigger weekly/monthly  trends absolutely support that outlook.

TSLA remains weak...

The target zone of 110/100... almost there. Any daily closes under the 200 day MA..and I'll then also look for $60 - as Carboni has called for.

2.32pm.. new highs in the sp'..along with the Dow, R2K

1pm update - which group is more crazy?

Whilst many are still top calling, what remains absolutely clear..the primary trend remains to the upside. There will no doubt be another retracement within the next 2-3 weeks, but it won't likely be much more than 3-4%..if that. Metals remain weak...and look set for much lower levels next week.



The above chart is for any of the maniacs (hello Daneric?) out there who have been touting equity doom this past week.

I'm doubtless going to annoy some out there, but so be it.

Trend is NOT it?

What will be even more laughable, is when the next minor retracement occurs. You can be sure that many will get overly excited..calling for a 'significant' down wave..only to then see Santa Claws arrive..with further upside into early January.

Right now..I'm not sure who is more crazy..the deluded bull maniacs who think the economy remains on the 'road of recovery'. or the doomer bears who think we'll crash whilst the Fed is still throwing $85bn a month at the market.

Urghh.   That concludes today's rant.

12pm update - back in the 1800s

Mr Market is seeing some classic algo-bot melt into the weekend. The VIX is -1.5% in the 12.40s, a weekly close in the 11s is just about possible. Metals are weak, with Silver -0.6%. Oil is off the earlier lows, -0.5%. USD is weak, -0.5%


SLV, daily2


Things are going as expected..which is kinda good to end the week.

Indexes are in simple melt mode. There is a sig' QE on Monday, so equity bears have little to look forward to early next week.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for tea :)

11am update - underlying upward pressure

A quiet end to the week, but equities are seeing the underlying upward pressure show through. A weekly close in the sp'1800s is viable. Metals appear weak, Gold +$2, and Silver -0.3%, much lower levels look likely next week. Oil swings lower.. now -1.1%


SLV, weekly'2, rainbow


*lower bol' on SLV, offering a clear $1 lower in the immediate term. I expect the June lows to be taken out...and that applies to the miners..via GDX.

Rest of the day...looks likely to see chop in the indexes, with a close in the sp'1800s.

*I will hold SLV short across the weekend...seeking the mid/low 18s for my next exit.

Notable strength in UAL

Seeking a break  into the 40s..and then a push to the 2007 double top high of $48

10am update - opening chop

The main indexes open with some mixed chop. With no significant news due today, it will probably be a quiet end to the week. Metals are still trying to rally from recent lows..but look very weak. The weaker USD, -0.4% is no doubt helping a little.




It could be something of a tedious day...maybe the momo stocks or metals will show some decent moves.

*I am back on the short-SLV train from 19.23, seeking an exit in the mid 18s..early next week.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1797. Metals are similarly a little higher, Gold +$3, with Oil +0.3%. Equity bulls look set to close the week in the sp'1800s..with likely further moderate gains next week.



Well, its the end of the week :) There is indeed little reason why the bulls won't be  able to hold things together, and achieve a weekly close in the 1800s,...along with dow 16k.

All that is missing...Nasdaq comp' 4k.

Notable early mover: UAL, +2.4% @ $38

*I will be standing by to pick up an SLV (short) block this morning, and will be carefully watching the opening 30 minutes of trading.

Equities battling higher into year end

It would seem we have a short term cycle low of sp'1777, and we're now headed for somewhere in the 1815/25 zone into early December. Bears will probably manage a small wave lower in December, but the market still looks set to close 2013 in the sp'1800s.



A somewhat tiresome day...but as the weekly rainbow chart shows..we remain outright bullish.

Looking ahead

There is nothing due tomorrow. The only thing to be mindful of, are a couple of Fed officials, whose comments (as ever) might give the market an excuse to build gains into the weekend.

*next sig' QE is next Monday

I will be looking to pick up another SLV-short block early tomorrow, preferably somewhere in the 19.35/45 zone.

SLV, daily3

That would suffice for an entry, with an immediate downside target in the 17s.

French banksters victory against leading blogger

This is something I just noticed this evening...

MISH fined 8000 Euro, re: 2011 comments on French bank leverage ratios.

It is well worth reading, along with the comments. I am not entirely surprised to see such a crazy story, and it should concern all those independent online publishers..not for the current cycle, but when the next collapse wave hits.

No doubt, national governments - in association with their (politically funding) banker class, will be on the case of anyone who dares suggest the 'system is at risk'.. or that 'leverage was a primary cause'.

Anyone still remember how a south American govt (Argentina?) wanted to fine/jail anyone who dared dispute the official inflation data? Oh well, maybe the US Federal Reserve and ECB will set up their own prison system for all the doomer bear chartists, in the early 2020s?

It would be the height of irony if we all end up in some 'Stalin-esque' mine, digging up the gold ;) *

Goodnight from London

*I could imagine worse might be coal!

Daily Index Cycle update

The indexes closed with moderate gains, with the sp +14pts @ 1795. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +1.1% and +1.8% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into next week..upside target is the sp'1815/25 zone. VIX 12s, confirm a fearless market into next year.





Whilst the headline indexes were only moderately higher, it is highly notable to see the two leaders up so strong. The 1.8% gain in the R2K is pretty incredible, and we're on the edge of breaking new historic highs in the R2K. Weekly charts offer upside to the 1150/75 zone in early December.

As for the sp'.. upside target is 1815/25..which seems very viable across the next 1-2 weeks.

Equity bears...haven't a hope until next month, and even then, downside at best...3-4%.

a little more later...