VIX cools into the weekend

It was a mixed day in VIX land, with a kooky downside spike in early trading to 14.19, then turning fractionally positive to 15.83, but settling -4.6% @ 15.07. Near term outlook offers renewed equity downside.. with VIX 20s 'briefly' viable next week.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the VIX saw a net weekly gain of a very significant 15.75%.
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So.. an intra week low of just 12.58, but then soaring to 17.19 - which was also the exact high from March'11th, when sp' was 2039.

All things considered, there looks to be another opportunity for the equity bears next week.. and if the 2039 low can be taken out.. then VIX will be trading (if briefly) in the low 20s.. as offered by the bigger weekly cycle.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour drama.. as INTC rumoured to be buying ALTR
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... and yet another week at the world's most twisted and rigged casino comes to a close.

Certainly, a week for the equity bears.. with the post FOMC retrace low of sp'2085 failing to hold.. and then giving another 40pts of downside to a Wed' floor of 2045.

All things considered.. bears should have another chance at breaking the 2039 low.. which will offer at least a test of the 200dma in the 2010s by next Tue/Wed.

Have a good weekend.

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*The usual bits and pieces across the evening.. .to wrap up the week
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4.33pm... The Yellen is now answering questions....

'May be warranted'.  Hmmm

Considering price structure, an early Monday gain into the sp'2070s still looks more probable... unless the Greeks can upset the market cart first!

3pm update - into the weekend with Yellen

US equities are effectively flat lining around sp'2058/60. Yellen is due to make an appearence at a Fed conf' in San Francisco. There remains threat of a price snap (more inclined to the upside) in the closing hour. Regardless of the exact close though, it has been a week for the bears.. with sig' net weeky declines for all indexes.


sp'15min

sp'weekly

Summary

A tricky close to call, and with the smaller 5/15/60min cycles as they are.. the bias will be to the upside.. even though we're set for sig' net weekly declines.

notable weakness, momo stocks, TSLA -4.1%
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..awaiting to see if the market snaps around 3.45pm.. when the Yellen is due.



3.18pm.. market awaiting Yellen....

Could get a little wild in the closing 15 minutes... probably to the upside.

*according to clown finance TV, there WILL be a press release at 3.45pm.. so there is a MAJOR threat into the close of a 'stupid spike'.

That does NOT negate renewed downside next week though....


3.32pm.. price action remains incredibly tight... the setup favours bulls... not least if short-stop cascade begins....

... get ya popcorn ready!


3.39pm.. Market already starting to break upward.. sp'2062...


3.46pm.. INSANE jump in INTC

Woahhhhhhhhh... what is going on there?
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3.47pm.. Post Yellen press release.. no real spike in the main market.. but overall still inclined to the upside.


3.55pm. INTC in talks to buy Altera corp. 

2pm update - minor churn

US equities have become increasingly subdued, although price action continues to favour the equity bulls into the weekly close. VIX is naturally cooling a little, -1.5% in the mid 15s. Metals and Oil continue to hold the earlier declines.. as the USD itself remains lower by -0.1%


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Summary

Price action is indeed very quiet.. as the weekend looms.

The Yellen is due to make an appearance at 3.45pm... I am not aware if there will be a press release of any prepared remarks.

In any case... rather than watching this tick for tick today.... I'm largely elsewhere.
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Notable weakness, copper miners, FCX/TCK, both lower by around -3%.

1pm update - micro bull flag

US equities are moderately mixed, with the sp' stuck around 2062/58. Renewed upside into the weekend looks very viable... with price structure.. a micro bull flag.. offering 2075... along with VIX 14s. Gold remains a little weak, -$3, whilst Oil is -2.5%.


sp'15min

Summary

Its getting a little tiresome again... as market is in minor chop mode.. but as noted... price structure is slanted in favour of the bulls.

... Yellen is due just before the weekly close... and that might be a valid excuse to settle in the 2070s.
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notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -8.1%.. with a new multi-year low of $5.03.

12pm update - still clawing upward

US equities are holding minor gains.. and look set for the sp'2070s before the close. Price structure is a rather clear baby bull flag on the smaller 15min cycle. Gold remains weak, -$4. Oil remains significantly lower, -2.7%... hovering around the key $50 threshold.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Market looks set to claw upward... and as a fair few are aware of... the Yellen is set to speak at 3.45pm at a west coast Fed conf.

Whether the market will see some of the rats selling into the weekend... difficult to say.

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VIX update from Mr T.



*that is a pretty sig' VIX call purchase... yesterday afternoon.
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time for lunch

11am update - battling upward

After a minor snap from sp'2061 to 2052, equities are resuming upward. Price structure though is very likely a large bear flag.. which should max out somewhere in the 2070/80 zone.. late today. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, with Oil -2.8%... losing over half of the Thursday 'war gains'.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

It looks like we'll claw upward into at least 2pm... which will no doubt annoy those bears still holding short from 2045 yesterday morning.

Best guess remains... renewed downside.. probably to the 200dma of sp'2010 by next Tue/Wed.
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -4%

10am update - powerless bears

Equities open slightly mixed, and it would appear the bears are powerless. A break back over sp'2060 will open up 2075/80 by the close. Price structure is still a reasonable bear flag, and there remains threat of renewed downside under the key 2039 low.. but seemingly... not today.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX opens with one of those kooky downside spikes.. but much like we saw on March'18th (FOMC day)... and that sure didn't bode well for the equity bears by the late afternoon.
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So... its looking like we'll battle slowly higher into the afternoon.

Clearly though, we'll still see a sig' net weekly decline across all indexes, which bodes somewhat bearish for early next week.
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notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -5.4%
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10.16am.. a minor snap from sp'2061 to 2053... but really... this still doesn't look great for the bears.

Price structure on the micro 5/15min cycles is a bull flag... 


10.22am... see...

Somewhere in the 2070/80 zone

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2055. Metals are a little lower, Gold -$2. Oil is cooling after the Thursday 'war gains', -1.2% at the $50 threshold.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting GDP data... although its just a revision, and should be largely unchanged.#
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So.... can the equity bears make it five in a row? Another net daily decline looks far more likely than not. I see a few touting renewed strength, but really... how is that going to happen, not least since we saw a sig' bounce yesterday anyway from 2045 to 2067.

Certainly, a break under 2040/39 looks due...and could certainly happen today. Once that occurs... next support is 2020/10... where the 200dma will be lurking next week.

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End week doomer chat from Hunter


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Have a good Friday

Oil soars on middle eastern conflict

Whilst there was further renewed weakness in the equity market, there was strong upside for Oil prices. WTIC settled higher by $2.46 (5.0%) @ $51.43. If $41.24 was a key short term low, then first retrace upside is the $60/67 zone. The underlying issue of over-supply though.. remains entirely unaddressed.


WTIC, weekly

WTIC, monthly

Summary

First things... first.

The issue - at least to me, remains one of over-supply. Yes... short term 'war gains' could continue for weeks.. even a few months, but until the valves at individual oil wells are physically turned OFF... the inventories will continue to build.

At some point this late spring/summer, storage will be maxed out.. and then it will be a fire sale.

Right now I'd actually be looking to short oil... somewhere in the 60/75 zone, esp' once we're into June/July.
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As for equities...

sp'weekly7

The sp'500 is close to breaking the rising trend from the Oct' low. If the March'11th low of 2039 low fails to hold - as I believe it will, then next key support is the 200dma around 2010. If that fails... then a test of the giant 2k threshold. Ultimate 'best case' for the doomer bears would be sp'1960/40 zone... but for now... that remains a mere hope.
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Looking ahead

Friday with see the final revision for Q4 GDP, corp' profits, and consumer sentiment.

*it is notable that the Yellen will be speaking at 3.45pm tomorrow... at a San' fran' fed conference.
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Mrs Brown says that in London...

 ...everyone is different, but that means.. anyone can fit it in. I think she must be right, because although I don't look like anyone else, I really do feel at home. I will never be like other people, but thats alright.... because I'm a bear. A bear called... Paddington.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2056 (intra low 2045), having seen a sig' bounce to 2067. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and -0.1% respectively. With technical breaks on the daily cycles, there looks to be further weakness into early next week... to the sp'2020/10 zone... where the 200dma will be lurking.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*the R2K, Nasdaq have yet to break their rising trends from last October.
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Suffice to say... some notable technical breaks today in the sp'500 and (arguably) Dow, following the Transports.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has now turned negative on all indexes, and typically, we can expect a few more days of 'broad weakness'... before the next up wave can begin.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...