Whilst equities significantly rebounded, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -6.8% @ 22.50. Near term outlook offers the sp'1940s, and that will likely equate to VIX 20/19s. Best case for the equity bulls are the sp'1970s... before the next VIX hyper surge into the 40s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add, the VIX is continuing to cool from the high of 32.09... when sp'1812.
It would seem there is a fairly high probability that the market will hold together, battling upward into mid February.
VIX looks set to lose the key 20 threshold... at least briefly.
--
US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +26pts @ 1903. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers the sp'1940s before the weekend, along with VIX 20/19s. The bigger weekly cycles are still threatening 1970s by mid February... before a grander decline into the spring.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting AAPL earnings... due at 4.30pm EST
--
The closing hour saw renewed strength, having effectively bounced off rising trend. Its a good sign for the equity bulls into tomorrow.
So.. a day of gains.. negating most of yesterdays decline.
A straight run to the 1940s looks probable.. and that will equate to VIX back under the key 20 threshold.
At the Wednesday close, rising trend will be 1920.
--
Q4 GDP data this Friday won't likely be pretty... so if we're 1935/45 late Thursday, it'd be a valid excuse for a Friday cool down.
US equities are set to close significantly higher, although not fully negating the Monday declines. The market is naturally a little anxious ahead of AAPL earnings, but if they come in at least 'reasonable', the market will continue to rally toward the 1940s. The FOMC doesn't seem to offer the bears any near term hope.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
The sp'1940s look very viable before the weekend.
notable strength... SDRL +12.5% @ $2.06... one such powerful up day does not negate the underlying threat that the company is going to disappear this spring/summer.
--
US equities continue to claw upward, whilst the maniacs at print HQ are sitting at a big table, discussing how they are in control of the US and world economy. Meanwhile, it is increasingly amusing to see how bullish the cheerleaders are becoming on clown finance TV, after all, everything is fine again, yes?
sp'60min
sp'daily5b
Summary
re: daily5b: considering the bigger weekly cycles, I'm going with scenario'2.
I certainly do NOT see the market sustainably >2K any time soon... but neither do I see an imminent collapse wave to the 1700/1600s.
For the moment... the more cautious can quietly remain on the sidelines.
-
notable mover...
TVIX -8.6% @ $9.20.. as market volatility continues to cool. The 7s look due, given another 2-3 weeks.
It should be clear though, VIX 40s are coming.. along with sp <1800.
--
With the sp' back in the 1900s, the bigger weekly cycles are warning that the equity bears are going to probably need to wait another few weeks before first opportunity of the next wave lower. The 1940s look very viable this week, with 1970s viable by mid February.
sp'weekly1b
sp'weekly6
Summary
The weekly candle is offering another spike floor, a net weekly gain looks very probable.
The weekly 'rainbow' candle will probably turn blue... and that should clarify that we'll see another 2-3 further weeks higher... but increasingly choppy as there will be selling into any and all strength across the next few months.
-
For now.. there seems ZERO reason to be short the market.
Arguably, the worse trade right now would be to short AAPL on margin. There appears high risk of the $105/107 zone post earnings.
-
US equities are holding somewhat significant gains, with a probable daily close above the sp'1900 threshold. VIX is naturally in cooling mode, -4% in the 23s. For the equity bull maniacs, its a straight run to 1940s, with VIX 20/18.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Suffice to add, yesterday seemed pretty clear, with a floor in the 1870s... and now here we are.. already back to 1900.
Broadly, if this nonsense drags out into mid Feb - as the bigger weekly cycles are suggesting, then we'll hit the 1970s... before a critical rollover.
Equity bears are getting ground out of the market, as the market battles for a daily close >sp'1900. It would seem the market is now on a straight run to the 1940s, along with VIX 20/18 zone. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$8. Oil is +4.8% in the $31s.
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
So.. we've a short term floor of sp'1875.
The 1940s look well within range before the weekend.
The ultimate issue is whether the market is set for a rollover beginning end of this week... or not until mid February. The bigger weekly cycles would be more suggestive of the latter.
--
US equities open moderately higher, although the gains are a little shaky. There is threat of a brief washout into 11am to sp'1870.. with VIX 25s. Further upside to a basic 38% fib' retrace of the 1940s look due, and is clearly viable if AAPL earnings, and the FOMC press release please the market.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*PMI service sector: 53.7.... not great... but neither terrible
--
There is still threat of a brief washout to around sp'1870 by late morning, and that would likely see VIX 25s.
In any case... we're headed higher across the next few days.
*equity bears are arguably getting opportunity to exit.. if they didn't yesterday afternoon.
-
notable opening reversal
FCX, 5min
The above chart is a fine example of why sometimes it is useful to watch the micro 5min charts.. esp' at the open. A clear black-fail candle... as someone has taken the opportunity to make a run for the exit door when FCX was +10%.
Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at sp'1879, although it is notable that there was an overnight low equiv' to sp -19pts @ 1858. Metals continue to bounce, Gold +$3. Oil is rebounding,+1.6% around the $30 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
So..an overnight swing back upward.
There is clearly threat we'll see some minor weakness into 11am... but broadly... a net daily gain looks due.
Primary target remains the 1940s... with the 70s out of range until next week at the earliest.
--
Overnight action...
Japan: -2.3% @ 16708
China; imploding into the close, -6.4% @ 2749
Germany: currently -0.3% @ 9706... but recovering
-
Have a good Tuesday
-
9.28am.. with Oil building gains of 3%... sp +8pts.... 1885.
Anyway.. market is now looking ahead to AAPL earnings.... which I'm guessing will please the market.
Once the current bounce concludes, the big issue will be how low can the next multi-week down cycle go? A basic target remains the sp'1750/25 zone.. with a broader target of the low 1600s. The price pattern/structure from May'2015 to the present is spookily similar to that of Oct'2007-July 2008. In theory... things are going to get real crazy this spring.
sp'weekly8f
sp'weekly, 2008/09, MARCON
Summary
*for further details on my MARCON system, I'd merely suggest you go look at the other blog! All the details are there.
--
I could reel on for many pages about the current situation. Frankly, I'm tired though.. which is kinda scary, considering its only Monday.
--
In any case, first we need to see the current bounce from sp'1812 conclude. The issue in the immediate term is whether the bounce should be based on a time retrace starting from the sp'2116 (Nov'3rd) high or 2081 (Dec'29th).
sp'daily5b - two scenarios
It matters because we could be talking about 3-4 weeks of chop/upside, rather than maxing out later this week.
Based on the 2008/09 pattern.... we won't likely see the next rollover until mid February.
--
Update from Mr C.
--
Looking ahead
There is a fair bit of data tomorrow... Case-Shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond Fed'
--
As for whether we floor in the 1600s or lower...
I don't have a time machine, I sure can't say for certain. Its all about the probabilities, right?
What I can say right now is that an exceptionally bearish price structure IS there. Indeed, the giant bear flag (call it a wave 2?) from Aug-Dec' has already been confirmed with new multi-year lows in most US/world markets.
The giant monthly cycles are increasingly in favour to the bears... with a technical setup soon to mirror that of Sept'2008.
We also have a number of black-swans ready to fly. There is Deutsche Bank, that would be a system threat to the EU. How would the ECB/Draghi react to that?
There are numerous corporates set to implode, not least those in the oil/gas and mining sectors.
With each day from here, I'll try my best to refine the targets - including the aspect of the time frame. As ever feel free to share your own thoughts/outlook.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp
-29pts @ 1877. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and
-2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of early Tuesday
weakness, at least to 1870/68, along with VIX 25/26s, before pushing upward into end month.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add, a rather strong down day, but overall.. to be expected, as the market is merely seeing a natural retrace of the Wed'-Friday hyper ramp of sp'1812-1908.
Renewed upside looks due.. at least to the sp'1940s. Right now, 1970s look out of range this week, and if they are going to hit.. it'll likely take until the week of Feb'8th.
--
