Tuesday 9 September 2014

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately weak, sp -13pts @ 1988. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and -1.2% respectively. Bulls can sustain the 1970s without doing any damage to the multi-week up wave from 1904. Primary upside target remains the 2030/50s.



A tiresome Tuesday... that is all.

3pm update - continued weak chop

It has been another day of minor weak chop, and the morning low of sp'1991 is now in imminent danger of being broken. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst oil is -0.3%.



We remain stuck in the 2011/1991 range... a mere 1% wide.

At best, bears could see the 1980/70s.... whilst the broader target of 2030/50 remains easily viable in the near term.

*I will hold moderately long overnight, seeking the sp'2010/15 zone.

3.17pm  So much for the 1990 floor.....  now 1987... and no real support until weekly 10MA of 1970.

Even AAPL is fractionally lower. The humanity!

Great.. just,....great.

2pm update - AAPL climbing into the sunset

AAPL has seen some natural price chop, but the initial drop was minor, and AAPL looks set for a daily net gain, back above the big $100 threshold. Rest of the market is still seeing weak minor chop, but with likely renewed upside Wed-Friday.

Still bullish...sunsets
AAPL, 5min


So.. a bit of chop, but the giant drop that some were predicting for AAPL post-announcement simply hasn't occurred.

*I will hold moderately long overnight, seeking the sp'2010/15 by late Friday.. that'd make for a fine exit... with a broader target.. still of 2030/50.

1pm update - time to call me... maybe

Its late summer, and that can only mean one thing... its time for yet another AAPL product launch. A likely iphone6, and maybe an iwatch or an even bigger ipad. Regardless... AAPL stock continues to broadly push higher from the $53s of April 2013.

AAPL, monthly, 7yr


Suffice to say... AAPL is back over the big $100 threshold... Mr Market would probably like to wash out all those who are trying to short this tech giant.

The April 2013 low of $53.10 now looks a very long way down. I sure don't see anyone suggesting we'll be trading there any time soon... if ever again.

I suppose you could watch the AAPL cheerleaders on clown finance TV... personally... I find the following...far less annoying.

...back after another late summers walk...

1.25pm...back :)

AAPL, 5min

Minor moves in the scheme of things..certainly, nothing for the bears to get excited over.

12pm update - time for another up wave

It would appear we have floored at sp'1991, and look set for another daily close in the 2000s. Overall price action remains choppy, but there is the underlying upside, that stretches all the way from the key low of 1904.



*I am long from sp'1992 this morning, would prefer an exit in the 2010/15 zone, later this week.

Metals are starting to slide again, Gold -$4. The fractionally higher USD won't help.

The AAPl product announcement is due around 1pm I believe. I have little interest in such over hyped nonsense. Just how different will iPhone6 be to 5? With effectively blanket coverage, its almost as though CNBC is being sponsored by AAPL for the entirety of today.

VIX update from Mr P.

time for lunch

11am update - late morning turn

Equities continue to see minor weak chop, with the sp'1990s still holding. All the smaller equity cycles are arguably floored... and the only issue is whether 2011 will be broken in the next up wave.



*I picked up a minor long-index block, from sp'1992.

Well, its 11am.. and is typical 'turn time'. I'd expect the 2000s later today.

Price action remains relatively muted. Down waves are limited.. and the broader trend remains to the upside.

As has been the case for a very long time.... the best the bears can generally do is to merely hold prices flat...until the next up wave.

notable reversal : CHK +2.0%

10am update - opening minor tease

Equity bears are being teased with a minor down wave to the low sp'1990s, but a turn could already be in. Price action remains broadly bullish.. with the 2020/30s viable in the immediate term. USD continues to climb, +0.2%



All the smaller cycles are arguably floored... and indexes will likely be green within a few hours.

notable strength in Nas' gas, higher for the second day, +2.9%

UNG, daily

Despite the gains though... the weekly/monthly cycles for Nat gas look weak into Oct/Nov.

There are some interesting reversals right now...

CHK, SDRL, both have swung strongly higher.... some institution just hit a big buy program in energy stocks?

10.09am.. looks like sp'1991 is a floor. R2K is even more suggestive of a turn.

*AAPL blanket coverage on CNBC.... urghhh..  

10.40am.. LONG SPY, from sp'1992.   I think there is a fair 15/20pts of upside within the near term.... 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are unchanged, we're set to open at sp'2001. Metals and Oil are similarly flat. Hourly cycles are offering some upside for the bulls, with a likely daily close in the sp'2000s.



*it is notable that we do have a blue candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, but still.. that will flip back to green around 2003.

So.. things are set to open flat, and other than the AAPL announcement today (12pm EST?).. i don't expect much.

Hourly equity cycles are offering a wave higher today.. a daily close in the 2005/10 zone looks...probable.

Good wishes for what will likely be a sleepy Tuesday!

9.34am opening weakness... we'll level out soon enough... and close net higher. This type of price action is pretty damn reliable.

Notable weakness: SDRL -1.3%.

King Dollar remains Monarch

Whilst the main equity market saw a touch of minor weakness, the real action was once again in currency land. The USD continues a multi-month ramp from the 78s to the 84s. Outlook is bullish, with the 87s now within range by end year.

USD, monthly

USD, monthly2


A daily net gain of 0.6% for the USD, and we're now in the 84s. The 87s really aren't that far away. Certainly, we look set to be challenging the high from 2010/2008 by the end of this year.

A rising dollar is bearish for ALL dollar denominated asset classes. Of course, a rising dollar is just one variable, and as we've seen since early July, equities can continue breaking new highs, even with a stronger USD.

Most notable right now, precious metals, and Oil prices remain very weak. If USD does keep pushing higher, then WTIC Oil will surely fall below the $90 threshold.. and that would be a pretty major deflationary warning.

WTIC Oil, monthly'2


Hunter with Kotlikoff - on SIPC

*the following is highly recommended for all those with a brokerage account.

I was actually aware of the discussed problem some time ago, but my head still spins when I think about it.

So.. lets be clear...if you take money from your account.. and the broker turns out to have become fraudulent... you might well be liable to repay ALL funds taken out. Just consider a few of the scenarios...

-person invest their funds in a business.... fails....   then get a request to return the money
-person buys a house at top of a housing cycle.... gets a request to return money a few years later, at bottom of housing cycle... when the house price might have seen a net decline.
-person spends their account money on the proverbial 'beer and hookers'... then gets a request for funds to be repaid.

Frankly, the SIPC system is beyond bizarre, but then... these are crazy times.

*I'm not aware if this situation is the case in the UK.

Looking ahead

There isn't anything of significance due tomorrow, at least in terms of data points.

However, AAPL are set to make a major new product announcement.
There is fed official Tarullo, set to testify to the senate on 'wall street reform'.

*next QE-pomo is Wed', but that is a mere 0.4bn.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed a little lower, sp -6pts @ 2001 (intra low 1995). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broader upside, to the sp'2030/50 zone.


NYSE Comp'


On what was a quiet day, there is very little to add.

Price structure on most indexes is a rather simple large bull flag.. suggestive of upside into mid/late September.

Closing update from Riley

a little more later...