Wednesday 29 February 2012

Midweek Metal Massacre

The Gold/Silver maniacs will be real mad tonight! They have seen a steady and increasingly bullish situation develop since year end. Even the clown channels this Monday were starting to highlight the 30% rise in Silver. Doubtless, there will be a lot of moody metal bugs tonight. If the doomster outlook is right, many of them will be even madder across the next few weeks and months.

There are two ways to look at this latest destruction cycle...

Whine and bitch that its being 'whacked by the manipulators' again.
Just buy..and keep buying physical Consider any fall a bonus opportunity to load the truck.

Gold, getting the big hammer treatment!

Silver...similarly getting whacked, with somer serious sell volumn

The nasty JPM meddling again?

Just yesterday I was saying to someone 'ohh, Silver is about due for a whacking'. I didn't even dare guess when it might be. Who knows the internal machinations of the infamous 'morgue', suffice to say, its quite well suggested all over the place they have been loading up on short positions for a few weeks now. I can only imagine the laughter at their HQ today.

Silver, mid term - the balanced outlook

The following chart is something I put together last year. It just seemed - as recently as this Monday that 35/36 was going to be a real problem for Silver. I'm still ultra bullish long term. Is there anyone really out there who still thinks Silver is not worth at least $150 an oz? Long term, it seems an easy trade/physical purchase.

The power of the 10MA

Today's SLV 5min chart is a great example of the importance of the 10MA as support/resistance. The 'red line of doom' is arguably the first line in the sand for any given cycle chart you care to follow. You can see how the buyers tried to halt the fall..but every time Silver failed at the 10MA.

An interesting site to check:

Mr Ferguson (yeah, I'll refrain from using his first name), he is one of the biggest metal maniacs out there. From what I noticed today, his site must have been tipped over the edge today due to server overload! I sure couldn't access it until just earlier. I'm a massive supporter of Mr F', but he is the ultimate permabull. At least the good thing is that in the long run, he will be ultimately proved right, and will hopefully get recognised for his great pro-metal stance. Good wishes to you Mr F! Hang in there, and ride that wave!

More carnage to come?

Considering the daily, weekly, and monthly charts for the metals – and the overall 'equity toppiness', it'd seem likely that both Gold and Silver will both retrace for some days to come. The only issue will be if they violate the key levels, and instead of a minor retracement, it becomes the start of a massive new wave lower. My personal 'best guess' doomster targets for Gold and Silver are $1200 and $20 respectively by late summer. As noted earlier, that should merely be treated as a bonus opportunity to load the metal truck as bargain prices.

Arguably, if you see SLV below 30, its super bearish, and opens the door again to an attempt to $20.

GLD looks even weaker than Silver (kinda unusual!). Any move under 160 will open the door to 120.

A bearish end to the month

Martin Armstrong (I'm a huge supporter) touted today as a possible panic cycle day, and indeed..again, he has been proved right.  See:

Its going to be a fascinating Thursday and Friday for the wider markets. A new month, the 'ides of March'. 'March madness'....the doom chatter will be pretty rampant out there this evening.

Good wishes..more later (if the chocolate energy starts to kick in)

Hull Breach ?

Two posts to come tonight, lets start with the main indexes (I'll deal with the metal horror story later).

Today was important. Benny kinda upset the markets a bit (always a nice start to any trading day), and the second LTRO was completed early in the morning in Europe. Its good to have the LTRO nonsense out of the way now. It has been a looming problem for the bears since the original one last December.

I'll focus on IWM (its the main index ETF I trade), it has been the second leading index (transports remain first) - as it was in summer 2011. The two broad scenarios are what matter. I suppose I could have many others, but broadly, these two cover the main two near term outcomes.


Bullish... (although mid term, still possibly bearish.. ;) 

IWM – the doomster long term outlook

Okay, now this is a crazy chart, but hey, lets consider what the mainstream are STILL ignoring. Both the transports, IWM, and the very broad NYSE did not breach the May 2011 highs. Further, the CRX was nowhere near making new highs. I don't care that the easily manipulated and limited dow'30 made new highs. I guess you could then say 'ohh, but what about the nasdaq?' Well, that is almost equally as messed up due to AAPL - whose gains contribute 30% of the total gains since the Oct'2011 low.

The doomers need to see IWM in the 74s, and lower to confirm the wedge, and open up sub' Oct'2011 lows. It remains easily possible IWM will merely pull back to the 10MA of 78/79..and then bounce, or a slightly bigger move to 76/75. Regardless... 74s are a 'must-have' for the doomster outlook to have any credence.

Commodities under pressure

Bears need to see the CRX break out of the wedge, below 900. A move under 700 would confirm the super bearish wedge, and would open the opportunity to a second half 2012' market massacre.

VIX – the detonator clock is ticking

No real movement in the VIX today, but we did get a nice green candle on the rainbow (Elder impulse) chart. Should see 21 within 1-3 trading days, with a test of the recent 22 high. If 22 is broken, that opens up 24/26. The time to be adding to VIX calls!

The weekly VIX chart is clear, the 10MA of 19.32 is the first level to hold over, whilst 24 is a pretty important level. Look at the MACD cycle, we are still 2-3 weeks away from positive cycle. That will be the best opportunity for an explosive move back into the 30s.

Bears are first and 10, on their own 2 yard line.

So, the bears now have the opportunity to break lower, and at least test the first key levels – which equate to around sp'1320/1300. The 15 and 60 minute cycles are pretty low, so its entirely possible we'll have some kind of Thursday morning minor bounce. However, the bears will want to see a Thursday close in the red. Preferably, a good 12/15pts off the SP', with VIX +7/10%.

*Benny will speak at a Senate hearing tomorrow, so yet more opportunity for him to upset the capital markets with lack of  future 'QE' talk.

As noted, more later...on the metals!