Monday 4 May 2020

Choppy start

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +12pts (0.4%) at 2842. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -2.0%.




US equities opened broadly lower, pressured via other world markets, Trump comments on China, and Buffett/Berkshire bailing on the airline stocks.

The SPX printed 2797, and then churned into the afternoon, seeing a little spike upward to 2844, and settling at 2842.

Volatility was itself a little choppy, the VIX printing 40.32, and settling -3.3% at 35.97.

Your views...

39.7% don't believe negative rates are coming any time soon. I expect Print Central to take rates negative.. whether by year end, or within 2021.

Perhaps the ultimate issue is when the Fed will start buying stocks and/or related stock ETFs. A little over half believe the Fed will buying stocks by year end. Certainly, I see that happening if sp'1700/1500.

There is a broad split on whether the market breaks <2191.

56% expect front month WTIC to turn negative by mid May, as does yours truly. I will just add, that I see the oil ETF of USO as problematic, and would rather short via something like XLE, or even via the Dow components of CVX or XOM.

Sunset in the city of lockdown

Full moon is Thurs' May 7th
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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