VIX claws a little higher

With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX held onto minor gains, settling +3.7% @ 15.54. Near term outlook offers further equity upside to the 200dma.. around sp'2060. That will likely equate to VIX cooling to the 13/12s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until the next FOMC of Oct'28th.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

VIX remains broadly subdued, as the US equity market continues to claw upward from the August lows.

It would seem unlikely that the VIX will see any sustainable action >20 for at least another 6-7 trading days.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2030 (intra high 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside, with all indexes set to test their respective 200dmas.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: continued micro chop
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Well, a third day of price chop.. but with continuing underlying upside.

I can understand why some might already be scaling into market-shorts, but for now... there is zero sign of a trend change.. as particularly reflected on the bigger daily/weekly charts.

The ultimate issue remains whether the market will see a strong reaction around the 200dma. Right now... equity bears look to have a real problem. The market will have two (ECB/ FOMC) excuses to keep on pushing higher into November.

Aside from some individual stocks, this is no market to be short.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities are set for futher chop into the close. The smaller 5/15min cycles are threatening a bear flag into tomorrow morning, but regardless.. the sp'2040s look due.. with 2050/60s more viable next week. Oil is attempting a flat close.. ahead of the next pair of inventory reports.


sp'60min

USO, daily2

Summary

So.. a third day of relative chop.. but broadly.. the underlying pressure is clearly still to the upside.

ALL indexes look set to test their respective 200dmas... and it is notable that the Nasdaq already is.

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TSLA remains under severe pressure, -9.5%... the $200 threshold looks set fail.

NFLX -2.5%... but battling for a second consecutive daily close >$100.

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*I remain long Oil via USO.. I'm seeking an exit in the 16s.. if not 17s.. before the current up cycle is complete.

2pm update - TSLA catches fire

Whilst the main market is still moderately weak (but set for the sp'2040s Wed/Thursday), there is severe weakness in Tesla Motors (TSLA), -9.2% in the $207s. A 'Consumer reports' article has spooked many with talk of increasing reliability problems. The fail at the 200dma is rather dire.


TSLA, daily

TSLA, weekly2

Summary

*story @ YAHOO
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Those doomer bears seeking the main indexes to max out around the 200dma.. should be seeking exactly the kind of reaction we are seeing in TSLA.

In the case of TSLA, the excuse is an article.. but regardless.. price action shows two clear spiky top daily candles... unable to clear ultimate resistance at the 200dma.

Today is a massive fail.

Next supports..

$200 psy' level
The Aug' flash-print low of $195.. and then the 185/180 zone.
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Arguably.. the very worse trade would now be to try to 'buy the dip' in TSLA... after such a technical fail.
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re: weekly. A doomer target would be the 150/120 zone... but that will likely require a return to the sp'1800s.

1pm update - nothing of significance

US equities are moderately lower, but having broken another cycle higher high of sp'2039, the equity bulls have little to prove. A sustained break under the hourly lower bollinger of 2020 looks overly difficult, and now its a case of seeing how the US and EU markets react to the Thursday ECB accouncement/press conf'.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. more chop.. as we've largely had since last Friday.. but broadly.. the trend remains UP.

ZERO reason for the market not to be able to battle to the 200dma by next Wednesday... and no... I don't expect a rate hike then. Hell, Draghi might threaten NIRP this Thursday... although for the macro-bulls... that can't be seen as a sign of strength.

notable weakness..

NFLX -2.6% in the $98s
TSLA -4.4%...

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Today was better in London city...

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back at 2pm

12pm update - higher highs.. higher lows

Despite seeing a minor down wave in the late morning, it remains broadly the case that the market is continuing to build a series of higher highs and higher lows. First soft support is the rising daily 10MA @ sp'2016. It remains highly probable that the market will first test the 2055/65 zone.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add.

New cycle highs to sp'2039.. a micro down wave... a little chop... a net daily gain looks probable.
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notable strength: AAPL +1.8%

weakness: NFLX -2.0%.. back in the $99s.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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back at 1pm

11am update - AAPL is breaking up

Whilst the broader market is slowly building moderate gains... with a likely push into the sp'2040s, there is notable strength in the tech behemoth that is Apple (AAPL), +1.8% in the $113s. There is soft resistance in the 116s, and then the 119/120 zone.


AAPL, daily

sp'60min

Summary

Not surprisingly, we're merely continuing to push higher.

As I will keep noting though.. it will be vital to keep in mind other world markets - esp' China, as a guide for where we are likely headed.

For now... we look headed to the 200dma on all indexes.

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back at 12pm

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open a little lower, but once again, it remains the case that the equity bears look entirely unable to build any sustained and significant downside move. Commodities are having a better day, Gold +$7, whilst Oil has turned fractionally positive.


sp'60min

Summary

There is little to expect of today. Mostly chop.... but with the usual underlying upward pressure, and that pressure INCREASES with each day as the weekly cycles turn more bullish.

Next big issue is the Thursday ECB meeting. If Draghi threatens more QE... we'll see sp'2060s.. and it won't likely stop.

For now, it should be clear.. this is no market to be short.

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notable strength:

DIS, daily

Not surprisingly.. Disney is benefiting from the increasing Star Wars hysteria.... only another two months to go. By then.. DIS at new highs.. along with the broader market?  

.... probably.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little weak, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2030. USD is starting to cool, -0.2% in the DXY 94.70s. Gold +$4. Oil -0.2%


sp'daily5

Summary

Not much to note.

The sp'2040s look a given... with a test of the 200dma (2059/60) probably by next Wednesday.

From there... that remains the ultimate issue. Right now, it is looking like a retrace to around 1950.. and then resuming higher into year end.
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notable early movers...

IBM -4.6% on lousy earnings
DIS, +0.1%.... post star wars trailer quiet.

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Update from Oscar


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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +0.4% @ 18207.
China: +1.1% @ 3425...the first daily close above old broken support since Aug'21st.
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Have a good Tuesday

China battling to break above resistance

The week started on a mixed note for Chinese equities, with the Shanghai comp' settling -0.1% @ 3386, having briefly hit 3423. A few daily closes in the 3400s will offer further upside to the monthly 10MA.


China, daily

China, monthly

Summary

*as things are, China is currently seeing the first net monthly gain since May.
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It really is a case of whether the SSEC can see a few daily closes in the 3400s... or not. The longer it takes.. the more difficult it will be.
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Looking ahead

The only data of note, housing starts.

*Fed officials Dudley and Yellen are both set to speak tomorrow, but neither appear likely to be of any importance.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed fractionally higher, sp +0.6pts @ 2033 (intra high 2034). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for a test of the 200dma of sp'2059/60. Even if the market stalls and reverses.. it will not negate the threat of a second upside break attempt in Nov/Dec.


sp'daily5

Summary

A very quiet day... and there really isn't anything to add.
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a little more later...