Whilst US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, the VIX managed a minor gain, settling +2.5% @ 16.92. Near term outlook offers further equity upside of around 1%, which might briefly equate to VIX in the 15/14s. Broadly, the VIX is set for renewed upside into end month.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued, having cooled from the 30s to the 16s.
The 30s look out of range until April, with hyper upside to 40/50s far more viable in May.
*equity bears should be seeking a monthly VIX close above the key 20 threshold.
--
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2019 (intra low 2012). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the gap zone of sp'2038/43, with Dow 17405/425. Sustained action >2050 and Dow 17500 looks extremely unlikely.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: very subdued micro chop, but as has been the case many times in recent weeks, the closing hour leans to the upside.
--
So.. early moderate weakness naturally turned higher.. with a new cycle high of 2024.
It is notable that the upper hourly bollinger is now 2039... so, that price gap is very viable on Wednesday.
--
notable weakness: TVIX.. which broke into the $5s this afternoon. The daily lower bollinger offers $5.75/50... before a key floor.
US equities remain in minor chop mode.. but naturally still leaning to the upside, as equity bears are powerless ahead of the latest FOMC announcement this Wednesday afternoon. Metals are under notable pressure, Gold -$13, which makes for a $31 swing from earlier highs.
sp'60min
GLD, daily2
Summary
It remains a rather subdued day... and aside from the moves in Gold, the related mining stocks, and weakness in Oil, its pretty dull.
--
A real classic is currently airing...
'...can reach Plymouth, if ordered'
HMS Exeter
The movie is 'Battle of the River Plate', from 1956, an old favourite of mine.
Equity bears have been shelled for over a month.. its almost time for a turn.
US equities remain moderately mixed, with the sp -2pts @ 2020, and the Dow +27pts @ 17240. There are rather obvious upside price gaps of Dow 17405/425 and sp'2038/43. VIX is broadly subdued, +2% in the 16.80s. The 15/14s look probable by Wed' afternoon.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add... as the market is more than comfortable to churn ahead of the next econ-data and the FOMC.
--
Not surprisingly, most indexes are in the process of turning positive, with a probable second consecutive close above the 200dma for the Dow/Sp'500. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5, with the miners naturally following, the ETF of GDX -2.6%.
sp'60min
GDX, daily2
Summary
Little to add.
Quiet day... ahead of some econ-data.. and an overnight BoJ policy statement, when the printers might be spun up some more.
-
US equities remain moderately mixed. As is usually the case, the algo-bots will be inclined to melt prices higher in the latter half of the day, which would make for a second consecutive close above the 200dma for the Dow/sp'500. Yet... on any basis, this week's FOMC will be the perfect excuse for a reversal.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*note the upper bollinger on the daily chart @ sp'2035, and the hourly around 2032.
Clearly, the 2030s are somewhat probable.. whether tomorrow.. or more likely... Wednesday afternoon.
--
Little to add.. on what is clearly a day of moderate chop.
notable weakness... TVIX -1.1%.. melting toward the $5s.
Whilst the broader market remains moderately choppy, there is notable weakness in the precious metals, with Gold swinging from early gains of around +$17, to -$5. The related mining stocks are naturally cooling, with the ETF of GDX -2.0%.
GLD, daily2
GDX, daily2
Summary
Well.. both the metals and miners appear headed for a basic retrace.
Perhaps Wednesday will see a hyper-reversal candle? Something to keep in mind.
--
notable strength: TSLA +3.7% @ $215... next resistance is 220/225. I sure don't want to see the 230s.. as it would argue against the broader equity bearish outlook.
US equities open moderately lower, but clearly, the equity bears remain powerless, with no realistic hope until after the FOMC. Metals are pretty choppy, with Gold cooling from +$10 to u/c. Oil remains weak, -3.4% in the $37s.
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*note the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, positive cycle for the second week.
-
Frankly.. little to add... as things really don't get interesting until some econ-data tomorrow morning.
--
notable weakness... SDRL, daily
With Oil lower by around -3%, energy stocks are under pressure. Indeed, equity bears should look to see WTIC oil remaining under the $40 threshold this week, and across the months ahead.
Sustained action above the 200dma.. in the $6s looks highly improbable, with SDRL on the 'disappear list'.
--
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -6pts, we're set to open at 2016. USD is +0.3% in the DXY 96.50s. Gold is +$5. WTIC Oil is -2.6% in the $37s.
sp'60min
Summary
The hourly MACD cycle is clearly on the high side, and its not entirely surprising we're set to open negative. However, 2K should comfortably until after the FOMC.
Indeed, I'd imagine we'll see 2030/40s by 2.15pm this Wednesday.
From there..... the rally from Feb'11th should have concluded.
--
Update from Mr C.
--
Doomer chat : Hunter, with Celente
As ever, make of that what you will. I sure don't agree with all of it. The issue on debates though was particularly interesting. Can you imagine listening to 60mins of Ted Cruz, and then 90mins of Marco Rubio. The horror!
--
Overnight action
Japan: +1.7% @ 17233
China: +1.7% @ 2859
Germany: currently +1.4% @ 9970. Again, the 10K threshold is important. Equity bears really don't want to see a weekly/monthly close >10K.
--
