VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX broke above declining trend... but even the 17s look out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Monday, 30 November 2015
VIX moderately higher
With equity indexes settling moderately lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +6.7% @ 16.13. Near term outlook offers renewed equity upside, at least to the 2115/20 zone, with 2150/70 before year end. Sustained action above the VIX 20 threshold looks out of range.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX broke above declining trend... but even the 17s look out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX broke above declining trend... but even the 17s look out of range in the immediate term.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2080. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, at least to the sp'2150/70 zone, which appears highly probable.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: mostly chop, but with a notable new intraday low of 2080 at the close.
--
.. and November comes to a close.
Without question, after the hyper-gains of October, the equity bears managed to only pull the market down to sp'2019... and from there, we are making another attempt at new historic highs (at least in some indexes).
The sp'2100s seem extremely likely this week, and Mr Market will surely at least want to keep pushing to the 2115/20 zone.
-
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: mostly chop, but with a notable new intraday low of 2080 at the close.
--
.. and November comes to a close.
Without question, after the hyper-gains of October, the equity bears managed to only pull the market down to sp'2019... and from there, we are making another attempt at new historic highs (at least in some indexes).
The sp'2100s seem extremely likely this week, and Mr Market will surely at least want to keep pushing to the 2115/20 zone.
-
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - another month comes to a close
November trading is set to close with the sp'500 moderately net higher, having solidified a higher low of 2019. December offers the 2115/20 zone in the immediate term, with new historic highs - 2150/70, before year end... whether the fed raise rates... or not. Oil is notably weak, -0.9% in the $41s
sp'monthly3
USO, daily2
Summary
*note the second consecutive green candle, it sure ain't bearish.
--
A quiet start to the week... but price action will likely significantly favour the equity bulls as the week proceeds.
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notable movers...
TWTR -2.2%... as the momo chasers sure aren't interested in this mess
INTC +1.1%... underlying momentum remains very strong... even on a quiet day.
CREE +2.2%... broadly strong... from the $22s to 27s, set for the 29/30 zone.
--
back at the close
sp'monthly3
USO, daily2
Summary
*note the second consecutive green candle, it sure ain't bearish.
--
A quiet start to the week... but price action will likely significantly favour the equity bulls as the week proceeds.
-
notable movers...
TWTR -2.2%... as the momo chasers sure aren't interested in this mess
INTC +1.1%... underlying momentum remains very strong... even on a quiet day.
CREE +2.2%... broadly strong... from the $22s to 27s, set for the 29/30 zone.
--
back at the close
2pm update - battling to turn positive
With two hours left of the trading month, US equity indexes are battling to close marginally positive. Regardless of the exact close though, the equity bears FAILED to negate the hyper gains of October. The sp'2100s remain due.. with the 2150/70 zone viable as early as the next FOMC of Dec'16th.
sp'60min
Summary
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is starting to tick upward, and at the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross at the Tuesday open.
A challenge of the last key cycle high of 2116 looks due later this week. Any action >2120.. and it'll be a straight run to the 2150/70 zone.
Without question... this is no market to be short.
-
BAC, daily2
Another failure to achieve a monthly close above the key $18 threshold... but Dec' looks probable.. so long as the Fed don't back out on a rate rise!
--
back at 3pm
sp'60min
Summary
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is starting to tick upward, and at the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross at the Tuesday open.
A challenge of the last key cycle high of 2116 looks due later this week. Any action >2120.. and it'll be a straight run to the 2150/70 zone.
Without question... this is no market to be short.
-
BAC, daily2
Another failure to achieve a monthly close above the key $18 threshold... but Dec' looks probable.. so long as the Fed don't back out on a rate rise!
--
back at 3pm
1pm update - oil stocks upgraded
Whilst the main equity indexes remain mostly choppy, there is increasing attention on Oil stocks, as Guggenheim issued a buy on 23 stocks. Oil itself has cooled from earlier sig' gains, fractionally lower, around the $42/41 division.
RIG, daily
USO, daily2
Summary
Suffice to say, in the short term at least... oil and related stocks, look far more vulnerable to the upside.. than to break new lows.
--
*I've eyes on BAC, price structure is an increasingly clear bullish pennant, but more on that later.
RIG, daily
USO, daily2
Summary
Suffice to say, in the short term at least... oil and related stocks, look far more vulnerable to the upside.. than to break new lows.
--
*I've eyes on BAC, price structure is an increasingly clear bullish pennant, but more on that later.
12pm update - moderately weak
US equity indexes are moderately lower, with the sp' breaking a new intra low of 2082. The sp'2100s look due.. but clearly... not for the November close. As things are, the sp'500 is still on track for a fractional net monthly gain.. due to settle somewhere in the 2085/95 zone.
sp'60min
sp'monthly
Summary
Not much to add, as the end month chop continues.
There are certainly some interesting individual movers though...
oil/gas drillers: APC +1,1%, RIG +2.8%
CREE +1.5%.. still on track for the 200dma in the $29s
GDX +2.1%.. .as Gold holds moderate gains of $6.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea :)
sp'60min
sp'monthly
Summary
Not much to add, as the end month chop continues.
There are certainly some interesting individual movers though...
oil/gas drillers: APC +1,1%, RIG +2.8%
CREE +1.5%.. still on track for the 200dma in the $29s
GDX +2.1%.. .as Gold holds moderate gains of $6.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea :)
11am update - no significant downside pressure
US equities have likely seen the low of today @ sp'2084, with VIX maxing out at 16.19. A break into the 2100s looks due within the near term. USD continues to hold the giant DXY 100 threshold, on track for a net monthly gain of around 3%.
sp'60min
Summary
So.. a lot of chop... but it should be clear, there simply isn't any sig' downside pressure. It is merely a matter of time before Mr Market starts systematically running multiple sets of stops in the sp'2100s.
It is month end of course.. by definition... choppy... the real direction should come this Thurs/Friday.
--
notable strength... oil/gas drillers
APC, daily
The floor looks secure.. and the $70s look due.
--
time for an early lunch
sp'60min
Summary
So.. a lot of chop... but it should be clear, there simply isn't any sig' downside pressure. It is merely a matter of time before Mr Market starts systematically running multiple sets of stops in the sp'2100s.
It is month end of course.. by definition... choppy... the real direction should come this Thurs/Friday.
--
notable strength... oil/gas drillers
APC, daily
The floor looks secure.. and the $70s look due.
--
time for an early lunch
10am update - opening minor gains
US equities open a little higher, as underlying price pressure remains to the upside. Sustained action <sp'2080 looks unlikely today.. and this week, as the sp'2100s look a given. Gold +$3. Oil +0.6% in the $42s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*Chicago PMI: 48.7... and that IS recessionary, a valid excuse for the Fed not to raise at the Dec' FOMC.
--
A fair bit of minor chop to start the week.... as Mr Market battles to pick a direction, and run with it.
Yes, the VIX looks like it wants to break up and out... but... I'm guessing. no.
--
notable opening weakness...
DIS,daily
.. and I like DIS at this level, having cooled from $120.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*Chicago PMI: 48.7... and that IS recessionary, a valid excuse for the Fed not to raise at the Dec' FOMC.
--
A fair bit of minor chop to start the week.... as Mr Market battles to pick a direction, and run with it.
Yes, the VIX looks like it wants to break up and out... but... I'm guessing. no.
--
notable opening weakness...
DIS,daily
.. and I like DIS at this level, having cooled from $120.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. US equity futures are a little higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2094. A move to the sp'2110s looks due in the near term. USD is +0.1%... holding above the DXY 100 threshold. Metals are u/c, whilst Oil is -0.2%.
sp'60min
Summary
*Chicago PMI data (9.45am)... econ-bulls should be looking for at least 53/55.
--
A little overnight chop in futures land... with the smaller 15/60min equity cycles offering upside across today. A daily close in the 2100s is very viable.
Last weeks low of 2070 looks pretty secure... as the market now looks toward the ECB and the Friday jobs data.
-
Update from Oscar
--
Doom chatter from Hunter, with Martenson
Like many of the doomers, I think Mr M' has almost completely lost his mind in the last few years. Its the same spiel in almost every single interview, I suppose some will tout that 'he'll eventually be right'. For the moment though... its largely hysteria talk.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.7% @ 19747... unable to close >20K
China: an early afternoon low, -3.3% @ 3327, but seeing some 'magical' late day recovery, settling +0.3% @ 3345. For the month, the Shanghai comp' was +2.0%... sitting on old support.
Frankly, China bulls should be very relieved at how the day/month closed.
--
Have a good Monday
sp'60min
Summary
*Chicago PMI data (9.45am)... econ-bulls should be looking for at least 53/55.
--
A little overnight chop in futures land... with the smaller 15/60min equity cycles offering upside across today. A daily close in the 2100s is very viable.
Last weeks low of 2070 looks pretty secure... as the market now looks toward the ECB and the Friday jobs data.
-
Update from Oscar
--
Doom chatter from Hunter, with Martenson
Like many of the doomers, I think Mr M' has almost completely lost his mind in the last few years. Its the same spiel in almost every single interview, I suppose some will tout that 'he'll eventually be right'. For the moment though... its largely hysteria talk.
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.7% @ 19747... unable to close >20K
China: an early afternoon low, -3.3% @ 3327, but seeing some 'magical' late day recovery, settling +0.3% @ 3345. For the month, the Shanghai comp' was +2.0%... sitting on old support.
Frankly, China bulls should be very relieved at how the day/month closed.
--
Have a good Monday
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