Tuesday 18 September 2018

Tariffs, what tariffs?

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +15pts (0.4%) at 2904. Nasdaq comp' +0.7% to 7956. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.4%. VIX settled -6.5% at 12.79. Near term outlook offers another cooling wave, that might well last into early Thursday.




Those equity bulls who had been watching the early overnight futures action were naturally concerned for the Tuesday open. Yet, the Asian markets of China and Japan swung upward into their respective closes, and that helped turn the US futures marginally positive. The sp' built gains into the mid afternoon. The closing hour saw a subtle rollover, and it does threaten another cooling wave, which might stretch all the way into early Thursday.

Regardless of any cooling, today's gains were very indicative of the underlying m/t super strength. Mr Market knows the trade/tariff concerns are almost entirely inconsequential to the bigger picture. Big target of 2950/3047 isn't far away.

With equity strength, volatility naturally cooled, with the VIX settling in the 12s.

Bonus chart: China, monthly

With a late day surge, the Shanghai comp' settled +1.8%, and that brings the net monthly decline to just -0.9%. If the SSEC can settle Sept' net higher, it'd offer a provisional sign of a m/t floor. To be decisive, I'd need to see a monthly close back above the 10MA, currently at 3053.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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