Thursday 15 November 2018

Short term floor

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.1%) at 2730. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.4% respectively. VIX settled -6.0% at 19.98. Near term outlook offers choppy upside into opex, and across Thanksgiving/holiday week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and saw an opening reversal to 2696, only to then spiral lower to 2670.  Late morning saw a reversal, with the spx turning fractionally higher. The afternoon saw a decisive push upward, breaking s/t declining trend... and giving clarity that 2670 is a s/t floor. The late afternoon did remain very choppy, settling at 2730. 

Volatility saw a mixed day, tagging the minor gap in the 22/23s, but with equities swinging upward, settling net lower in the upper 19s. On balance, today saw a s/t equity low, and the bulls should be able to control things into and across next week. The issue is how the month will settle.
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The ongoing BREXIT debacle

Another 500 or so, make a successful escape from the UK

To yours truly, it was a mess from the start. The political establishment - including May (conservative/republican) wanted the UK to remain. Then the vote saw a fractional majority of the UK vote to leave.

Democracy in the modern era, being what is it, the 'mob rule' of 51%, won, as it was a case of 'to hell with what the other 49% want'.

Today saw May battling to hold onto her role as UK Prime Minister. Let us not forget, she personally was responsible for calling a snap election in summer 2017, one of the worse political decisions ever seen in the western world. Her parliamentary majority was lost, and she had to form a coalition to stay in power.  


May's BREXIT agreement/plan with the EU is supported by barely a fifth, even those who do want to leave the EU.

The world capital markets aren't buying her political spiel, with the GBP currently 1.27s to the King of FIAT land. I still expect eventual parity, and frankly... I have no reason to complain. Yours truly didn't choose to get paid in USD for no good reason.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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