Tuesday 11 December 2018

Bounces are to be seen as such

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.9pts at 2636. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers a push to the 2680/2700 zone, but then another rollover. A challenge to break and settle under the Feb' low of 2532 remains on the menu.




US equities opened significantly higher, partly helped via a Trump tweet that 'big announcements are coming' in terms of trade. The spx saw a high of 2674, but the gains eroded to fractional declines, not helped via....

... a very public feisty exchange between Trump and Pelosi/Schumer. Today's event is an early example of the political deadlock that will be one of the key themes in 2019. The spx swung from 2621>2659 in the afternoon, but the closing wasn't pretty, settling effectively u/c at 2636.

Volatility saw relatively minor swings within the 21/23 zone, settling -3.9% at 21.76.

Yours truly continues to see bounces as such. A challenge of the Feb' low of 2532 appears still on the menu. I'd actually only drop that notion if we break and hold >2800. The latter looks very difficult in the remaining 12.5 trading days of the year.

Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is currently -1203pts (5.4%) at 21148. A monthly close <21k would be decisive, and offer far lower levels in 2019. Five clear waves, and its not entirely a stretch to target 12k.

Ten days until the winter solstice

Full moon due Dec'22nd
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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