Saturday 23 June 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (Trans), -2.0% (Dow), -0.9% (sp'500), -0.7% (nasdaq comp', nyse comp'), to +0.1% (R2K). Near term outlook offers further downside of 2-3%

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


The sp' saw an intra week high of 2774, but settled -24pts (0.9%) at 2754, as last week's black-fail candle played out. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has seen a rollover, and it bodes s/t bearish into end month/early July. Basic downside target is 2718, with secondary of 2671 - the partly unfilled gap from May 9th. More broadly, big target of 2950/3047 still looks on track for late summer/early autumn.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq saw a net weekly decline of -0.7%, but with a notable new historic high of 7806. S/t bearish with the broader market. The 8000s are clearly coming this summer. The only issue is whether the 9000s might sync with sp'3K.


The mighty Dow cooled for a second week, with a net weekly decline of a significant -2.0% to 24580. S/t bearish with the main market, as trade/tariff chatter is particularly impacting the international stocks, such as CAT and BA.

NYSE comp'

The master index cooled -0.7% to 12639. Price action since mid March has been rather tight, but leaning on the upward side. S/t bearish, with big support in the 12200s.


The second market leader - R2K, managed a fractional net weekly gain of +0.1% to 1685, with a new historic high of 1708. First support is around 1650.


The 'old leader' - Transports, saw a very significant net weekly decline of -2.7% to 10773. Higher energy prices look set to be a drag on the tranny across the summer. S/t bearish with first support of 10500.


A broadly bearish week, with five indexes lower, and one fractionally higher.

The Nasdaq comp' and R2K, broke new historic highs.

The Dow and Transports are struggling on trade/tariff chatter, and higher oil price concerns.

YTD price performance...

The Nasdaq continues to lead, currently net higher for 2018 by 11.4%, the R2K +9.8%, and the sp +3.0%. The Transports is +1.5%, Dow -0.5%, with the NYSE comp' -1.3% 

Looking ahead

Key earnings: CCL (Mon'), LEN (Tue'), BBBY (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), STZ (Fri')

M - New home sales
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - Durable goods orders, intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA report
T - Q1 GDP (third print), weekly jobs, stress test results part'2.
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

As Friday will be end month, Q2, and H1, I would look for increasingly dynamic and choppy price action into the weekend.

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.