With the market appearing to floor at sp'1850, the VIX maxed out in the gap zone of the 15.20s. With a latter day recovery in equities, the VIX broke lower, settling -0.6% @ 13.97. Near term outlook is for the VIX to melt lower to the 12/11s - if sp'1880/90s.
vix'60min
vix'daily3
Summary
Suffice to say, VIX did finally manage to reach the gap zone, at which point it has got stuck.
I do not expect a higher VIX later this week, and the 20s look out of range for some weeks, perhaps even a few months.
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US equities saw some interesting intraday swings, from opening gains to sp'1877, but being quickly eroded to 1850, and settling +6pts @ 1869. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed u/c and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is..bullish to another attempt to push >1880.
sp'60min
Summary
Interesting day, and yes, despite the weakness, I'm still resigned to higher levels. Indeed, I even picked up another two long positions.
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Where now?
Well, the hourly index cycles are offering a floor of sp'1850, and the big issue is can the market cope with QE taper'4 this Wednesday, along with whatever the GDP for Q1 comes in at. Market consensus is only 1.1% growth, which is not exactly a bold target. I'm guessing we'll at least see 1.5% or so, and you know the market will use that an excuse to rally.
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*I hold heavy long overnight (gods help the bulls now!), via CHK, DO, RIG, SDRL, and STX, the latter of which has earnings at the Tuesday close.
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The equity bulls have probably held the line - from the recent 4-5 days of 'minor weakness'..at the sp'1850 line. VIX has seemingly maxed out at the gap zone of the 15.20s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, but off their earlier lows.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, no one can say today was dull. Bulls opened higher..bears took over, and whacked the market from 1877 to 1850 - pretty impressive.
However, the actual price action is nothing that I'd call particularly bearish, never mind that the broader up trends are still holding on all the main indexes.
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With further QE tomorrow, the FOMC/GDP on Wednesday, and the latest 'the recovery continues' jobs data from the BLS on Friday, bulls still have a fair opportunity to attain a weekly close in the 1880/90s.
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Here comes the sun...
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updates into the close...
3.05pm.. Hourly MACD cycle offering a snap higher tomorrow, the 1880/90s are viable by late Wednesday. Bears...beware!
3.12pm.. Its getting nasty..and the VIX is about to turn red..in the 13s.. .urghhhh. Poor bears :(
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*I will hold heavy long overnight, via CHK, DO, RIG, SRDL, and STX.
3.19pm.. nasty market..with VIX red..and set to close in the 13s... with sp'1870s
For those on the short side, I realise today has turned into the mini nightmare.
3.27pm.. a 21pt swing so far....pretty intense stuff! VIX 13.80s....the horror!
3.41pm.. pure horror for those in bear land...
Suffice to say, I hold HEAVY long overnight..and am at least on the right side of things today.
Another minor wave lower, and the VIX has finally broken into the 15s again, where there is a very clear gap zone - equating to sp'1850/45. Equity bears really need a daily close in the low sp'1840s to offer hope that the market is going to break the broader upward trend.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*rather than pick up an index-long, I went LONG DO (Diamond offshore) a little earlier.
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So...VIX has reached the gap zone in the low 15s. I suppose sp' could still hit 1845 or so, whilst the VIX churns sideways.
Regardless, price action in my view is just not particularly bearish. Certainly, VIX in the 15s is nothing for the doomer bears to get overly excited about.
Stay tuned.
2.10pm.. market threatening a reversal from 1850, with a second floor-spike hourly candle.
Notable strength remains.. AAPL +2%, as many recognise the split, and a likely Dow inclusion will lead to much higher levels.
2.25pm.. Equity bulls making a play to push this nonsense back up...bears could be in real trouble now.
VIX appears maxed right at the gap zone of 15.20s...already back to 14.50s.
Despite a clear degree of weakness so far today, the equity bears are still not displaying the downside power that would be necessary to break the next support zone of sp'1850/45. Hourly index cycles are again offering a floor, and for the bears, this might be as good as it gets this week.
sp'60min
Summary
*exited a short silver position just earlier. Might get back with that this Wednesday.
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Frankly, the price action just looks a choppy mess, but for the bears...that IS a major problem.
Is a 'choppy mess', the best the bears can do? It would seem so. It is now just a matter of when the bulls can launch another up wave.
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Notable weakness in OPEN
A lousy daily and weekly outlook for those long OPEN.
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1.03pm...sp'1860... getting kinda close to gap/support...along with VIX 15s.
1.10pm.. VIX gap zone..that is the one to focus on... 15.20/60 zone...we'll likely get stuck there.
1.18pm.. VIX 15s...getting real close now..along with sp'1850/45.
1.26pm...almost there...in both zones..
Keeping mind a typical turn time is 2.30pm...bears will probably max out within next 60mins.
1.34pm.. LONG DO (Diamond offshore), from equiv' of sp'1851.
Anyone notice the Dow, just -45pts.. a mere 0.3%.
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VIX at the gap zone of 15.20s... high risk of the bears getting stuck here.
The US indexes continue to see some reasonably dynamic price action. However, the equity bears (at least so far) are simply showing a lack of downside power. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8, whilst Oil is a little lower, -0.2%. VIX is battling to hold minor gains of 2% in the low 14s.
sp'weekly8
Summary
*ignoring the smaller cycles this hour.
re: chart'8, bull maniacs should be seeking to hold the 10MA of 1858 this week.
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If you believe the market can cope with QE'taper'4 this Wednesday, then a push into the 1890s is a given, at which point a weekly close at the 1900 threshold is also likely.
There are plenty of good chartists out there, many of whom are seeking a break >1900, with May/June upside into the 1925/75 zone. So far...few seem to be looking for sp'2000s..well, except Mr Carboni.
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VIX update from Mr T
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time for tea!
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VIX'60min
The gap zone remains an obvious 'best bear case'.
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Notable weakness: OPEN, -5.5%..falling like a rock.
It has been a pretty choppy start to the week, with failing gains..but then another whipsaw to the upside. It is indeed going to be a very dynamic week in terms of price action. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -0.9%. VIX is battling to hold fractional gains, in the low 14s.
sp'60min
Summary
*I picked up two new long positions, RIG, and SDRL, will seek to hold them for at least a day or two.
Currently, LONG CHK, RIG, SDRL, STX, and SHORT, SLV (which I'm seeking to drop today, its annoying me).
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For me, the action in AAPL is probably a tell. If the giant AAPL is picking up some serious underlying upside, then the broader market should be okay...
AAPL, monthly
The low 600s look pretty easy to hit.
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11.28am.. suffice to say, it remains a bit of a mess this morning.
Momo stocks having real trouble, with AMZN leading the way lower...but...
AAPL is higher, and there are certainly some stronger sectors in the market.
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Bears just seem to lack any downside power..despite the current minor weakness.
Hourly index charts.. still offer the bears VIX 15s, with sp'1850/45...but really, that will be real difficult.
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11.40am.. RIG and SDRL, looking pretty good, and there is noticeable strength in some of the resource stocks out there.
Well, no one can complain..this ain't a dull start to the week!
Mr Market has begun the week with opening gains, but those have already largely failed. Bears should be battling for VIX in the 15s..with sp'1850/45. If equity bulls can hold the line there though, there remains high probability of renewed upside. Metals remain somewhat weak.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*I have my eyes on RIG and SDRL, on the long side....but first, I want to let the indexes slip lower.
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We have started the week with some pretty dynamic opening price action....at least its not boring, right?
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 1873. Equity bulls need to at least hold above the 1850/45 zone this week. As it is, With sig' QE-pomo today and tomorrow, the bears face the old problem. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$2, Silver -0.8%.
sp'60min
Summary
We have a pretty packed week ahead. Suffice to say....for full details, see the weekend post!
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Mr Permabull is starting the week...bearish...
Considering the weekly charts, I'm really bemused how Oscar is seemingly spooked. All the indexes are holding well within their broader up trends. For instance, Transports would have to fall 3% just to test rising support.
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As for me today, well, I have my sights on picking up RIG and SDRL, but those might both open significantly higher, and I'm not particularly in the mood to chase them higher.
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Good wishes for the week ahead!
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8.52am.. sp +7pts... 1870.
Notable strength: FCX +1.1%, which is pretty impressive - considering the weak metal prices.
8.56am.. Notable weakness: AMZN -0.8% @ $301. A break <300 would be a warning for the broader market.
Regardless, hourly index charts offering upside into FOMC Wednesday. The fact we have QE today and tomorrow can only help.
9.35am..ohoh, black candles appearing all over the place...just like Friday morning. Bulls..beware.
If we do fail to hold the gains, downside target zone is 1845/50.
9.41am... black-fail candles... it is a problem, and the indexes are starting to slip.
AMZN snaps ....fails to hold $300
9.43am VIX due to snap higher in 10/15mins......kinda interesting open.
I continue to have my eyes on RIG and SDRL...once the smaller 5/15min cycles are floored.
