VIX slumps into the close

With equities breaking above key resistance in the closing hour, the VIX broke lower, settling -6.4% @ 13.09. With a daily close in the sp'2090s, any hope of VIX 20s is now off the menu... until at least mid May.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

With US equities settling above key resistance of sp'2088/89, the VIX snapped lower into the close.

Any near term hopes of VIX in the 20s are now gone.. and VIX will likely remain subdued for some weeks.

Seasonally, equity bears have 'some hope' by mid May... but by then, the sp'500 could be in the 2150/75 zone, which is where the monthly upper bollinger is lurking.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +9pts @ 2091 (range 2074/93). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook has turned bullish, with a decisive break above key resistance of 2088/89.


sp'60min

Summary

The closing hour break higher into the sp'2090s is very significant, and arguably bodes well for the bulls for the rest of April... and into early May.
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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities are seemingly content to see yet another hour of minor chop into the daily close. Metals are settling lower for the third consecutive day, Gold -$9. Oil vainly attempted a 2% rally... only to turn back negative... arguably already confirming the baby bear flag.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what is merely another day of minor chop.. stuck in an increasingly tight range... 2086/74... a mere 0.6%.
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*Oil remains an alluring trade to consider. There is a particularly attractive price-gap zone, which looks set to be hit/filled tomorrow morning. If the mood takes me... I'll take that level.. and hold long across next week.

notable weakness, AA -4.2%... but more on that one after the close.
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3.06pm... another attempt to break resistance... sp'2088... but its difficult to see why we'd break higher today... overall price action remains very subdued.

Clearly though.. a daily close in the 2090s would be VERY bullish for the weeks ahead.. if achieved.


3.23pm... sp'2090... well, its looking like bulls win another round.. as a truck load of short-stops are no doubt getting hit.

VIX breaking lower, -4% in the 13.40s.

2pm update - still.... stuck

Another minor up cycle... and again... stuck at sp'2086, with a VIX -1.4% in the 13.70s... indicative of a market that has effectively no worries about anything. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$8. Oil is holding sig' gains of 1.3%.. but price structure remains a bear flag for early Friday.


sp'60min

USO, 60min

Summary

Nothing has changed since the last hour.

Oil has a notable bear flag... certainly, I'll be surprised if we don't see at least some weakness tomorrow morning. 

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notable weakness:  AA, -3.9%.. off the lows, but price structure remains extremely bearish into the summer.

1pm update - more of the same

US equities remain in moderate chop mode... stuck under key resistance of sp'2088/89, but with the bears unable to hold under the 50dma (2075). Metals remain weak, Gold -$8. Oil is holding moderate gains, +0.8%, but price structure is a baby bear flag.


sp'60min

USO' 60min

Summary

*I remain content to watch Oil.. seeking a USO-long entry in the $17.70/50s... early tomorrow. A move in WTIC Oil to at least $60 looks a given.
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Well, there really isn't anything to add.

Market is clearly stuck... and will probably remain so into the weekend.

To be clear.. any daily close >2088 would be very bullish, and open the door to new historic highs into early May.
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notable strength: BABA, +1.2%.. as the Asian markets continue to ramp.

12pm update - it remains messy chop

Equity bears achieve another fractional break of the 50dma... to sp'2074... but again... downside action is simply not being sustained. Market remains stuck under key resistance of 2088/89. Metals are weak, Gold -$8. Oil is battling to hold minor gains of 0.4%


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*A quadruple spike top on the daily chart.. its certainly bearish.. but any daily close >2088 would be VERY significant, and offer a straight run to new historic highs.
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So... it remains moderate chop... stuck under resistance.. but with the bears unable to sustain any downside move. There is little else to add.

notable weakness: AA, -4.6%.. with a new multi-month low of $12.96.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch

11am update - renewed weakness

With no one willing to buy above sp'2088... the market has naturally rolled over again, into the sp'2070s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$8, with Silver -1.8%. Oil has turned negative, -0.2%.. the $50 threshold looks set to fail.


sp'60min

USO, 60min

Summary

*I continue to keep an eye on Oil... but am not particularly in the mood to get involved today. Will consider going long tomorrow.
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So... sp'2077... with VIX +3% in the 14.40s. A daily close <2070 with VIX 15s should be first objective for the bears.

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notable weakness, AA -5.1%.. as Mr Market is uninspired by earnings.. or the CEO 


11.35am.. Another fractional break of the 50dma (now 2075)... but bears just not showing any sustained downside power.... as reflected in a VIX that is barely positive. 

10am update - yet another attempt

US equities are yet again battling to break and hold above resistance of sp'2088/89. VIX remains subdued, reflective of a market with near zero concern about anything. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$8. Oil is moderately higher, +0.7%.... but looking vulnerable.


sp'60min

GLD,weekly'3

Summary

*Gold bugs will no doubt be in denial.... but price structure IS a classic H/S formation... Gold is headed for the giant $1000 threshold... probably by June.
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So... another open... much like yeseterday... which was much like Tuesday.

Its getting a little tedious, although there is some good individual stock action...

AA, -4.3%... headed for $10/9 by late summer. I like the company.. but certainly not at $13... and not at this time.
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*I'm keeping an eye on Oil... but will give it another day to stabilise.
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10.06am... once again.... no one wants to buy >2088... and the sellers (at least some).. are appearing.

Broadly though... price action remains choppy... there doesn't seem to be an catalyst to kick things one way or the other.


10.45am.. and down we go.... as no one wants to buy >2088.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2082. The market remains firmly stuck under resistance of 2088/89. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$2. Oil is higher by 0.8%.


sp'daily5

Summary

So...  a broadly flat open is due... certainly nothing for the bears to get excited about.

Price action remains a choppy mess. Even if we do slip lower from here, we surely won't break <2039 by the Friday close.... in which case... no real clarity across the weekend.

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notable early weakness, AA -2.6% @ $13.30s... post earnings depression
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Update from Oscar


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Have a good Thursday


8.31am. Jobs data 281k.... 'reasonable' I guess you could say. Next up... Wholesale trade at 10am.


9am... INTC drops talks to buy ALTR.....  INTC stock flashes lower by -3% immediately to $30. ALTR implodes -12%

Indexes turning red... sp -3pts, so.. that is 2078

Asian markets continue to soar

Whilst the US market continues to see moderate day to day swings, there remains a powerful upward trend in the far east. China and Japan are already net higher this month by 6.6% and 3.0% respectively. The broader outlook remains hyper-bullish for another two years.


China, monthly

Japan, monthly

Summary

It is VERY notable to see the SSEC hit 4K today... with the Nikkei very close to the giant 20K threshold.

On any basis... Asian markets are really strong.. and show absolutely no sign of cooling.
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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, along with Wholesale trade.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed a little higher, sp +5pts @ 2081 (intra high 2086). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. Near term outlook remains very mixed, whilst the market remains stuck between resistance of 2088/89 and the recent low of 2039.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq

Summary

Little to add

Just another choppy day in market land.. with the sp'500 stuck within the 2089/39 zone.

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a little more later...