Volatility climbs into the weekend

With equities weak across the day, the VIX built gains (intra high 14.27), but cooling into the close, settling +4.0% @ 13.31. There looks to be near term upside to the 15s.. before resuming lower. Across the week, the VIX gained 10.1%.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX looks set to max out early next week in the 15s.. where there is a clear gap to fill - seen on the daily/weekly cycle.

Under no outlook do I expect VIX in the 20s in the near term.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed the week on a somewhat negative note, sp -11pts @ 1985. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.0% respectively. Near term downside target remains sp'1973/70, along with VIX 15s.. before the primary upward trend resumes.


sp'60min

Summary

....and that concludes another week in the world's most twisted and rigged casino.
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Suffice to say...we still have sp'2011 as a key high...and with the Wed' low of 1982 broken under, the market looks set for the low sp'1970s next Mon/Tuesday, before we go back up.

I do expect new historic highs in October. Whether we keep on pushing straight into the 2100s... difficult to say.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening...to wrap up the week.

The weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes.
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As ever, I will be keeping an eye on Bardarbunga this weekend. The eruption at the nearby fissure continues, and a major explosion of the core volcano itself looks likely at some point. Such an event would have possibly major consequences for NW Europe this autumn/winter.

Live stream (link subject to change)...


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3pm update - weakness into the weekend

US equities remain weak, with the sp' set for a weekly close in the 1985/75 zone. This will be the first net weekly decline for the sp'500 since early August. Primary downside target remains 1975/00 zone, along with VIX 15s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Suffice to say... at least the week is ending 'on track'...

*I will look to pick up a major long block, next Mon/Tuesday..whenever we hit the low 1970s..with VIX 15s.
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...updates into the close....


3.17pm.. .a micro ramp to 1985.... bears covering?

Regardless, I ain't going long unless we hit the low 1970s....

As I often say... 'don't get lost in the minor noise'.


3.22pm.. with volatility as low as it is, its kinda not surprising that everyone gets so rattled on a 0.2% rally across 10/15mins.

So..as things are... seeking for this to hit target next Monday.. I'd be surprised if it takes until Tue/Wed.

2pm update - a lower low

There is increasing weakness into the weekend, with the Wed' morning low of sp'1982 being broken. VIX has climbed into the low 14s. Downside target of the low sp'1970s - with VIX 15s, look on track.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

...back from the park...

Hyper bullish sunsets

...and rather nice it was.
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I remain content to wait for sp'1974/00 zone... which seems more likely early Monday.. than today.

In fact I'd prefer it that way, I don't particularly wish to go long into the weekend..due to the usual options decay issue.


2.33pm minor chop... but sp'1983... with VIX on the edge of the 14s.... bears look in 'soft' control...into early next week.

Carnage in the drillers, SDRL -5.9%... getting absolutely destroyed. 


2.44pm.. here come the 1970s.... with VIX 14.20s....

1pm update - slowly sliding

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' stuck under the 1990 threshold. Primary downside target remains the low sp'1970s - along with VIX 15s, which seems very viable early Monday. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9,


sp'60min

Summary

Well, its been a quiet week of minor weak chop...

Downside target remains viable.... and for me, that will be a buying zone. Under NO circumstances am I interested in shorting the indexes...not before sp'2050 or so.

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time for a walk... before the vampires come out.

12pm update - equities still weak

The market remains moderately weak, but still above the Wed' morning low of sp'1982. Price structure on the bigger daily charts remains a pretty major bull flag. Metals remain dire.. Gold -$9.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So.. we're still weak..and the low sp'1970s remain viable... although that seems unlikely today.

For me, a key issue will be VIX 15s... which is very likely the best the equity bears can hope for.

Notable weakness in the oil/gas sector, RIG -2.9%, SDRL -5.1%.

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time for lunch
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12.34pm... watching Schiff on clown finance TV... hmm

sp'1987.....weak....VIX creeping higher.

11am update - bears trying to capture the flag

US equities remain moderately lower, but still, there just isn't any sig' downside power. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$12, with Silver -0.9%. Oil & Nat' gas are both lower by around -0.6%.


sp'60min

Summary

...meanwhile...this is (depressingly) probably the most bearish thing we'll see today.



*there is more than one bear...if you look closely.
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So.... the big question remains.... sp'1970s....in the current multi-day cycle, or was sp'1982 a key low?

All things considered, I'm still looking for that 1% of downside, but I won't be short this market... overly risky... until we're brushing the upper bollinger on the weekly and/or monthly cycle.


11.34am.. still stuck around the 1990 threshold.. sure is a price-cluster zone for the past THREE weeks.

Meanwhile... SDRL getting drilling into dust... -4.9%. I sure put the kiss of death on that one. 

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with the sp'500 close to breaking what is arguably rising support of a B wave. If correct, there is still viable downside to the low 1970s, which would equate to VIX 15s. Metals and oil are both ending the week badly.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*the obvious price gap on the VIX continues to offer the bears some hope for a further wave lower.. but really, we're only talking about a 1% equity decline... at best.
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Interesting day ahead... especially if we can break back under 1990.

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*notable weakness: SDRL, -3.0%... which makes for one ugly weekly decline of -8%


10.04am.. Well.. .we're on the slide, 1988, with VIX 13.75...

big opportunity for the bears today...

I'll look to go long around 1972/70.... with VIX 15s..... if we get there.
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10.18am... failure in the VIX... red candle for this hour... with 1992.

..and THAT is why I can't be short this market... very frustrating.
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Where is a 'spooky' news story on the wires when I want one?


10.28am... VIX showing bear failure...

Disappointing. I suppose it could still push higher into the close, but there isn't a likely catalyst to help.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1997. Metals are still sliding, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.6%. Equity bulls need a weekly close of sp'2003 to turn the weekly 'rainbow' chart back to outright bullish. First key support remains sp'1970.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting this mornings quartet of econ-data...
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Retail sales +0.6%.. in line.. so that is one for the bulls.
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As for today, yesterday's daily candle is suggestive of at least some upside this morning. I'd be surprised if we go much above 2005 though. The low sp'1970s still seem a viable target.. but clearly..that is not on the menu today.


Update from Mr C.


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Good wishes for Friday :)
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8.57am..  sp -2pts.. 1995.

Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -0.9%.   SDRL -2.8% (see yesterdays fair value post)
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9.41am.. minor weakness... bears need 1988 to break the series of higher lows....

VIX +4.6%... but still... only the 13s. 

Oil prices remain weak

Despite a net daily gain of 1.2%, WTIC Oil continues to broadly slip from the early June high of $107. The $90 threshold looks very vulnerable, and if broken would offer at least another $5 decline into the autumn. Lower energy prices though... bullish for the oil based economy.


WTIC Oil, monthly'2, rainbow

Summary

We continue to hold the third consecutive red candle on the giant monthly 'rainbow' chart. The $90 threshold looks likely to fail in the immediate term, and that should offer a further $5 of downside - back to the April 2013 low of $85.

There are clearly a number of conflicting variables. On the bullish side, most economies are still growing. Further, the geo-political concerns are keeping a 'fear bid' on Oil, although it is surprisingly minor in size.

On the bearish side, the US dollar continues to climb for a third month. Being priced in USD, is naturally bearish on WTIC Oil.


Looking ahead

Friday will see a quartet of data, Retail sales, import/export prices, consumer sent', and busi' invents'. That should be plenty enough to get some price action in the early morning.

*next QE is not until next Monday, but even then, it will only amount to $1bn
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1997. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook still offers a minor down wave to the low sp'1970s, before the primary upward trend reasserts itself.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Little to add, on what was a pretty subdued day.

The daily candle for most indexes was something of a spike floor, and is suggestive of at least some further upside early Friday.
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a little more later....