sp'60min
Summary
A very tedious day, frankly I've nothing to add.
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A daily wrap... at 8pm EST.
Monday, 3 November 2014
Closing Brief
US equities saw a relatively quiet start to the week, sp -0.2pts @ 2017 (new intra historic high 2024). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for chop until early Wednesday.
sp'60min
Summary
A very tedious day, frankly I've nothing to add.
--
A daily wrap... at 8pm EST.
sp'60min
Summary
A very tedious day, frankly I've nothing to add.
--
A daily wrap... at 8pm EST.
3pm update - continued chop
US equities break another new high of sp'2024, although VIX has notably held gains since the open. The market looks vulnerable to a post election down wave, which might equate to VIX 18/20. Metals are increasingly weak, Gold -$4.
sp'60min
Summary
In the broader picture, even a move down to 1920/00 zone does little to reverse the hyper ramp we've seen since mid October.
All things considered, I just can't see much likelihood of sub 1900. Its not the best of thoughts right now.
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Video update from Mr Topstep.
I do not normally watch if its not Mr Riley, but this is actually worth seeing.. it covers a fair bit.. including the various price gaps.
Best case for the bears would indeed seem to be a test of the big sp'1900 threshold.. but that is around 6% lower.
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3.12pm.. Okay... so I'm sleepy, but Oil -3.1% right now.. really?
WTIC in the $78s... the bigger $60 target looks on track.... but then.. that is bullish US consumer/economy.. right?
sp'60min
Summary
In the broader picture, even a move down to 1920/00 zone does little to reverse the hyper ramp we've seen since mid October.
All things considered, I just can't see much likelihood of sub 1900. Its not the best of thoughts right now.
--
Video update from Mr Topstep.
I do not normally watch if its not Mr Riley, but this is actually worth seeing.. it covers a fair bit.. including the various price gaps.
Best case for the bears would indeed seem to be a test of the big sp'1900 threshold.. but that is around 6% lower.
-
3.12pm.. Okay... so I'm sleepy, but Oil -3.1% right now.. really?
WTIC in the $78s... the bigger $60 target looks on track.... but then.. that is bullish US consumer/economy.. right?
1pm update - tedious afternoon ahead
Market is slipping into ever more micro price action. There seems little reason why there will be any dynamic moves until post US election... on Wednesday. VIX is holding minor gains of 3% in the 14.50s.
sp'monthly
Summary
The October candle remains a pretty scary bullish one. I realise some are calling it a hanging man (bearish).. but overall.. the world indexes - as noted at the weekend, are all pointing up.
As is often the case, the VIX will likely give the first indication of underlying trouble.
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Notable strength...
GDX
A bounce though...is all it is. First resistance, the daily 10MA.. which will be in the 18s later this week.
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1.35pm... algo-bot melt.... sp'2023.... back to summer trading conditions again.
back at 3pm
sp'monthly
Summary
The October candle remains a pretty scary bullish one. I realise some are calling it a hanging man (bearish).. but overall.. the world indexes - as noted at the weekend, are all pointing up.
As is often the case, the VIX will likely give the first indication of underlying trouble.
-
Notable strength...
GDX
A bounce though...is all it is. First resistance, the daily 10MA.. which will be in the 18s later this week.
-
1.35pm... algo-bot melt.... sp'2023.... back to summer trading conditions again.
back at 3pm
12pm update - choppy Monday
Equity indexes remain seeing minor chop, but having notably broken new historic highs in the Dow and Sp'500 (2021). Overall price action looks set to remain relatively subdued until after the US election results (Tuesday night). VIX is creeping higher.
sp'daily3
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Market will likely see minor chop for the rest of today.. and especially across tomorrow.
Miners are holding gains, the ETF of GDX +1.8%.. but its a mere small bounce after last weeks massacre.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea
sp'daily3
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Market will likely see minor chop for the rest of today.. and especially across tomorrow.
Miners are holding gains, the ETF of GDX +1.8%.. but its a mere small bounce after last weeks massacre.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea
11am update - minor weakness
Having broken a new historic high of sp'2021, the market is cooling...if only a little. Metals are unable to bounce, with Gold -$3. Energy is mixed, Nat' gas +3.9%, whilst Oil is -0.6%. VIX is making a play for the 15s.
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
Summary
*I'll likely highlight the above chart across the week... but the notion of even a moderate retrace looks 'difficult'.
At best.. maybe the 1970s late this week, but really...its nothing for those in bear land to get excited over.
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Notable strength: BABA +3% @ $101.... earnings are tomorrow.
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
Summary
*I'll likely highlight the above chart across the week... but the notion of even a moderate retrace looks 'difficult'.
At best.. maybe the 1970s late this week, but really...its nothing for those in bear land to get excited over.
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Notable strength: BABA +3% @ $101.... earnings are tomorrow.
10am update - mixed open
US equities open somewhat mixed, with fractional new historic highs in the Dow (17398) and Sp'500 (2020). Metals are weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.6%. Oil is starting to slide, -1.1%. VIX is trying to build minor gains, +3% in the 14.50s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
I find the action in the VIX more telling than anything else. Even the huge equity gains on Friday weren't able to crush the VIX much lower. But then.. when the VIX is in the low teens, it can't go much lower, right?
Best case for bears.. VIX back into the 20/25 zone... but that will certainly mean the market doesn't break <sp'1900 in the remainder of the year.
A pretty depressing thought.
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Notable weakness, TWTR -2.2%, now at first support of $40/39
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10.02am... micro 5/15min cycles look ready to roll lower...sp'2010/05 seems viable.. with VIX 15/16s.
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10.30am minor weakness... clearly, nothing significant due until after the US elections on Wednesday.
At best, a weekly close of 1985/75, with VIX in the 17/18s. Not exactly inspiring... since those are the levels from just last Thursday.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
I find the action in the VIX more telling than anything else. Even the huge equity gains on Friday weren't able to crush the VIX much lower. But then.. when the VIX is in the low teens, it can't go much lower, right?
Best case for bears.. VIX back into the 20/25 zone... but that will certainly mean the market doesn't break <sp'1900 in the remainder of the year.
A pretty depressing thought.
-
Notable weakness, TWTR -2.2%, now at first support of $40/39
-
10.02am... micro 5/15min cycles look ready to roll lower...sp'2010/05 seems viable.. with VIX 15/16s.
-
10.30am minor weakness... clearly, nothing significant due until after the US elections on Wednesday.
At best, a weekly close of 1985/75, with VIX in the 17/18s. Not exactly inspiring... since those are the levels from just last Thursday.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are fractionally lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 2017. Metals are starting a new month a touch lower, Gold -$2, with silver -0.6%. Notable strength in Nat' Gas, +3.5%, whilst Oil is +0.3%
sp'daily5
Summary
Welcome to November... we're in the last sixth of the year... if you can believe it. Santa ain't too far off now.
Notable early strength, miner ETF - GDX +1.6%, but having fallen 19% in November, it could bounce 5% this week, and it would do nothing to the broader trend. Indeed, precious metals are essentially in free fall... and should continue to take the miners with them.
--
Doom chatter, Hunter with Pollock
As ever, make of that.... what you will.
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Good wishes for the week ahead
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9.04am... Indexes turning positive, sp +2pts... we're set to break a new historic high of 2020.
A fair few out there (hey Deflationland).. are seeking the 2040s.. before a key turn. I suppose we might hit 2040.. and then 1975/50 zone, but really. I can't see sub 1900s in the remainder of the year..... not with the JCB/BoJ out there.
Notable weakness, TWTR, -1.7%.. approacing first key support of $40/39
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9.35am ... very minor chop.... VIX is +2.7%.... kinda interesting
Fractional new historic high in the sp'500
sp'daily5
Summary
Welcome to November... we're in the last sixth of the year... if you can believe it. Santa ain't too far off now.
Notable early strength, miner ETF - GDX +1.6%, but having fallen 19% in November, it could bounce 5% this week, and it would do nothing to the broader trend. Indeed, precious metals are essentially in free fall... and should continue to take the miners with them.
--
Doom chatter, Hunter with Pollock
As ever, make of that.... what you will.
--
Good wishes for the week ahead
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9.04am... Indexes turning positive, sp +2pts... we're set to break a new historic high of 2020.
A fair few out there (hey Deflationland).. are seeking the 2040s.. before a key turn. I suppose we might hit 2040.. and then 1975/50 zone, but really. I can't see sub 1900s in the remainder of the year..... not with the JCB/BoJ out there.
Notable weakness, TWTR, -1.7%.. approacing first key support of $40/39
-
9.35am ... very minor chop.... VIX is +2.7%.... kinda interesting
Fractional new historic high in the sp'500
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