With equities rallying from sp'1990 to 2007, the VIX failed to hold early morning gains, settling -4.3% @ 12.09. Near term outlook is for sp'2030/50, which should equate to VIX remaining within the 13/10 zone.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*the VIX saw a second consecutive weekly gain of 0.9%.
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There is little to add. VIX remains very low, and at best, if a late Sept/early Oct' equity down wave, VIX will probably max out in the 16/18 zone.
The 20s look unlikely in the remainder of the year.
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US equities saw something of a significant latter day recovery, climbing from sp'1990, settling +10pts @ 2007. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for the 2030/50 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
...well, its been a tough (if short) week...
Suffice to say...
broader upward target of 2030/50 by FOMC/opex week remains on track.
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US equities look set to close the week with some minor chop, with a weekly close somewhere in the low sp'2000s. Unquestionably, it was another week for the bulls, with new historic highs in the Dow, SP', Trans, and NYSE Comp'.
sp'60min
Summary
*I remain reluctant to add anything to the smaller cycle charts... it remains all noise...within a broader up trend.
It continues to bemuse how so many have seemingly lost all perspective.
It is as though, so long as we aren't breaking a new high EVERY single day, then the bears appear, touting the usual nonsense.
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Whilst the broader market saw moderate chop this week, it has been an especially strong week for the Transports, currently holding a net weekly gain of 2.1%. It bodes well for the rest of the market across the next two weeks.
Trans'weekly
Summary
Little to add.
No doubt, many bears are very disappointed at the market reaction this morning. It was a very sig' jobs miss, but still... Mr market has little care for such things.
We're still broadly trending higher on a multi-week basis... primary target zone remains sp'2030/50 into the next opex of Sept'19th.
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Notable weakness: TSLA, -3.7%.. arguably, solely due to the CEO - Musk, suggesting the stock is priced 'high' in the near term. I have to admire him for that much.
Whilst equity indexes are now a touch green (some indexes are now net higher on the week).. I am trying to avoid being mentally polluted by the 'crazy talkers'. They are still out there today...incessantly top calling, with some rather bizarre near term downside targets.
sp'weekly8
Summary
Market looks set for minor churn for the rest of the day..with the usual underlying upward bias. Hourly cycles certainly support a weekly close in the sp'2000s. Bulls need 2003 or so.. for a fractional gain.
It is highly notable that the Trans is 2.2% higher this week...and it should be a major warning that the broader market will follow.
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US indexes have likely seen the floor of the day/week at sp'1990. A weekly close in the low 2000s remains very viable... bulls need 2003 for a net weekly gain. Oil/gas continue to slide, lower by -0.6% and -1.4% respectively.
sp'weekly8
Summary
Little to add.
Price action does NOT support near term downside of any significance, and this is entirely reflected in the VIX.
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Despite the monthly jobs data missing by a clear 80k, the sp'500 is only -0.3%. As ever, all the bears are able to achieve is minor weak chop.. and again, it is notable that we're a mere 1% from breaking new historic highs.
sp'60min
Summary
It is indeed utterly laughable that having soared from sp'1904 to 2011 (just yesterday morning!)... there remains considerable bearish chatter out there.
The top callers are still at it... and I'm seeing downside targets of the 1940s...even sub 1900s in the 'near term'.
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For me, it remains a case of 'lets see where we are in FOMC/opex week'. There is zero reason why we won't be somewhat higher by then. Probably somewhere in the 2030/50 zone.
VIX is not reflecting ANY fear in the market, and looks set to close red..in the low 12s.
US equities open a little lower, but there just isn't any significant power on the downside. Price structure on the bigger daily/weekly charts remains strongly bullish. Despite the USD a touch lower, Oil/Gas remain weak, -0.15%.
sp'60min
Summary
*I've removed all the annotations on the hourly chart. I think many are getting overly wrapped up in the minor noise again.
How can people seriously get bearish when we're breaking new highs almost every single day? Its simply..... crazy.
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Bigger picture outlook remains unchanged... sp'2030/50 zone by FOMC/opex week.
sp'weekly'8
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG, -0.8%, SDRL -2.1%. The latter now looks pretty dire on the daily/weekly charts.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1992. Metals are flat, whilst Oil is a touch lower. Equity bulls should be content with a weekly close in the 1990s..or certainly, the low 2000s.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly8
Summary
*awaiting monthly jobs data...
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Price structure on the daily cycle is starting to look very toppy, but then, we're still breaking new highs almost every day.
The weekly 10MA is first key support in the low 1970s, and it'd be surprising if we end the week down there.
Primary target remains sp'2030/50 zone by opex/FOMC week.
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Notable early weakness: oil/gas drillers, RIG -0.9%, SDRL -1.8%..both now look lousy on the bigger weekly cycles. Weak oil/gas prices sure aren't helping.
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End week doom chatter from Hunter
The Ukrainian issue continues to simmer, but really, the notion of a war against Russia is crazy talk. All Putin has to do is threaten to turn off the Nat' Gas taps to the EU this winter, and the EU will concede to every demand.
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8.30am.. jobs: 142k net gains, with headline rate of 6.1%. vs 230k /6.1% expected.
Pretty lousy. but naturally... market is in a 'bad news is good news mood'. Indexes trying to turn positive.
8.42am.. sp +2pts... 1999/2000.... equity bears will be getting somewhat annoyed by the open.
9.00am.. .back to -5pts... 1992. Choppy...but then...with new highs every day...why the hell are so many people getting bearish?
