Thursday 25 September 2014

Volatility powering upward

With equities failing to hold the rather critical floor of sp'1978, the VIX broke into the 15s.. and just kept climbing, settling +17.8% @ 15.64 (intra high 16.69). Near term outlook is offering the 18/19s. A weekly close >17.50 would be a huge sign that a grander turn has occurred.





More than anything right now, I will be looking for a weekly VIX close above the weekly 200MA... that has not occurred since late 2011. the Friday close.... look for above/below 17.50. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow/this week, but certainly viable by next Friday.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw some significant declines, with the sp -32pts @ 1965, having decisively broken the key floor of 1978. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is now bearish.



Suffice to say.. with so many technical breaks today, the market has strongly turned in favour of the equity bears.

Primary downside target zone is 1920/00... back to the August low.

If that zone is reached, it offers up a severely bearish fourth quarter.

More later... on the VIX

3pm update - a day for the bears

Regardless of the closing hour price action, today has been a day for the equity bears. There have been so many technical breaks... more notably on the bigger weekly and monthly cycles. Interesting days are ahead.



There remains chance of a bounce into the mid 1980s...although I realise some are seeking a more conservative back test of the broken neck line of 1978.

15min MACD cycle is now positive, and could easily rally into the close, but the mid 1980s look 'best case.

For me, a VIX weekly close >17.50 would be a massive sign that sp'2019.. the 'Alibaba top' was indeed a key market peak.

So....its the closing hour.. lets see how far the bulls can push. Certainly, some bearish day-traders will be closing out, and that will help to push prices back upward.

3.35pm  Still a viable bounce to back test the broken sp'1978 floor... which seems not viable until early tomorrow.

back at the close............

2pm update - price action sure is different

US equities remain significantly lower, and price action is very different from what we're used to. The break of sp'1978 is a very decisive one to recognise, and with the VIX pushing into the 16s, the bigger weekly cycles are turning ugly.



*I've a bearish weekly H/S chart, but I'll save that for later this evening. For now, suffice to note... with a red candle...the near term is now outright bearish.. and the door has opened to the 1920/00 zone - back to the August low.

Micro waves.... very weak.... even a retrace to the mid 1980s looks increasingly tough.


stay tuned...

2.04pm.. sp'1966... another new low...truly ugly.

Seemingly pointless for anyone to attempt day-trade longs.... whilst price action remains so weak.

The broader downside target is a pretty clear 1920/00... by late next week. If so...the broader picture will have changed.....but hey...more on that later.

Notable weakness: DRYS -7% in the $2.50s...if key market top is in...DRYS looks set to lose the $2s in November.

2.16pm.... here is something.... hourly MA will be around sp'1978 at the close.. and for those seeking much lower'd make for a primary level to short.

2.40pm.. adjusting the fib levels... new 'fair' upside looks to be 1978/80 in the closing hour.

With the technical breaks... this market is going to struggle to break back and hold the 1980s.

The giant sp'2000 threshold is fading away.

1pm update - weak weak weak

US equities remains exceptionally weak, with significant declines of around -1.5% for most indexes. With the VIX in the 16s, the equity bears are having their best day in almost two months. Considering the broader technical damage, further declines now seem likely.

Dow, daily


A brief review on the Dow.

Considering the state of the R2K, sp'500... the Dow looks set to lose the 50 day MA..and slip to the 200 day MA... some 400pts lower.... that'd equate to another 2.5% off the sp'.......roughly 1920/10.... very close to the early August low.

As for the immediate term.. there remains possibility of a bounce to sp'1982/84, we've already seen, there is some strong sell side today.

With the technical breaks...the bounces are to be treated as such.
Overall, a huge day...with major implications for the weeks ahead...

1.10pm.. another attempt to bounce.... best case upside remains 1982/84... I suppose it could drag into early tomorrow.... but regardless... we look broadly headed lower.

VIX high so far today... 16.69... very impressive. 

1.16pm mini snap to the upside....imminent...

15min cycle....


12pm update - technical carnage

US equities remain significantly lower, with the sp'500 decisively failing and breaking the key floor of 1978. A minor bounce from 1970 appears underway, best case is somewhere around 1984 by late afternoon. For the bears... today has opened the door to all manner of possible delights.




For those now looking for further weakness, the VIX weekly is something to consider. The weekly 200MA remains a  key threshold. A weekly close above 17.50 would be a critical signal of autumnal trouble.

So... a bounce appears underway... the mid 1980s look a reasonable target by 2/3pm.

VIX update from Mr T.

What am I doing?

Considering the failure at 1978... its a case of 'dump longs... and short the bounce'.. probably sometime in the 2pm hour.

Time to see what the cheer leaders are saying on clown finance TV.

12.30pm... sp'1968... and there is no floor... with VIX  +22% in the 16s.

What a day...

12.44pm.. Equity bulls need 1975 to break the immediate down trend, but even then, a bounce now looks to be halted around 1982/84

11am update - something new is going on

With the break of sp'1978, something seriously 'new' is occurring. For the big picture watchers, the R2K - weak for months, is finally flashing some genuine signals of trouble. With the USD cooling.. metals have turned positive, Gold +$4


R2K, monthly'3, with Fib levels


*the first red 'rainbow' candle on the R2K since May 2012.... its a pretty major event, and we have a clear trend break.

With the loss of the 50 dma on the sp'500....bulls are in SERIOUS trouble now.

Best case for the equity bears... a STRAIGHT drop to the 1920/00 zone......and then a viable right shoulder bounce to 1970/90... before something potentially special.

Long day still to come... but clearly... this is a very important morning.

11.10am.. Okay... we have a floor on the micro 5/15min cycles, from sp'1970...

now its a case of 'how high the bounce... target is 1984


So... its bounce time... but with serious technical damage now done.. the bounce will likely be very limited.

11.24am.. minor chop.... and it still looks like its bounce time... the 2000 level though...its fading away.

time for a somewhat early lunch... back soon

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but look set for a latter day rally, a daily close in the sp'2000/2005 zone looks probable, with VIX in the 12s. Meanwhile, the USD is +0.4%, which is pressuring the metals, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.6%


GLD, daily


*interesting opening action...spooking a few bulls, but really, 1978 looks a comfortable concrete floor

VIX fractionally breaks the recent 14.94 spike high..

Call this opening wave lower, a 2, B, or whatever you want, but yesterdays low of sp'1978 looks like concrete.

Right now, a simple for those still short to get out...and/or to go long...

Prime upside target remains sp'2010, more likely next Mon/Tue.

re: metals... suffice to say, the broader cycles are ALL bearish, probably another 6-12 months before the final washout is complete.

...which would mean the mining stocks will lose (typically) another 25/35%.

10.06am.. This market is really washing out a lot with this down wave... but 1978 should hold.

The only suggestion it will continue is the VIX, which has fractionally broken yesterdays high.

Smaller 5/15min cycles are offering a turn at sp'1981.... for the serious money out there... a simple 3/5pt stop... makes for an easy long-trade.

10.11am VIX is offering a turn... from 15.03. Remains odd it never did manage to even fill the gap in the mid 15s.

Regardless, looks like we have a turn from sp'1981.... bears are getting their exit signals.

10.15am.. sp'1980...  jeez, this is getting real marginal now.

A break of 1978 would justifiably open up all sorts of crazy outlooks...

10.21am.. Trans/R2K both take out yesterdays low..... headline indexes still holding on.

Notably, the Dow is the strongest index...

With VIX 15s.. this is a surprisingly weak opening hour...

As ever............ typical turn time... 11am........

sp'1977... busting the neckline.....
- VIX is now filling the price gap zone.... of the 15s....

VIX 'daily3

With 1978 failing...I think many out there are real surprised right now.... I'm one of them.

10.28am... Monthly 'rainbow' candle on the R2K turns RED for the first time since May 2012.

10.37am.. A LOT of technical carnage has been done with this mornings significant declines.

If we do still manage to rally from this later today... it'll make for even more confusion.

Clown finance TV suggesting its talk from Fed official Fisher about interest rates that is causing market upset.....hmm

10.47am... Its all support is not until the price cluster zone of 1950 or so... which might equate to VIX 18/19s.

Some seriously bearish scenarios are on the immediate agenda.... more on those later..

Clearly though...with the break of 1978....something new is going on.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at sp'1995. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.1%. The rising USD, +0.5% is no doubt still a major downward pressure for all $ based assets... including equities.



With the recent perfect re-test of the 1978 low.. there is indeed a viable bearish H/S scenario...


Thing is... we're only talking about 40pts (2%) under the at best 1940/35. Not exactly the big drop many are seeking.

I want to be clear though, I have LOW confidence in the above scenario. Many of the weekly cycles are still very strong, and offer broad upside to new highs in October.

I realise a fair few also seek the above scenario.. and are planning to launch index-shorts in the 2000/2010 zone... personally... I will likely refrain.

Update from a (not surprisingly) bullish Carboni

*Thanks for the messages/emails, I am not in the best of moods today... but I will endeavour.. best I can.

8.35am Durable goods orders, pretty lousy -18%..  Jobs data, 293k, a touch better than expected, not that I think most care about the latter anymore.

Seems few want to think about the 25% jobless in Spain, or the 60/70% in Greece... and thats just the Govt. numbers!

Notable early weakness: drillers, RIG, SDRL, both lower by around -0.5%.... although are both approaching next key multi-month/year support.  SDRL is currently $27s... should level out around 26/25.

9.20am... sp' -6pts... the 1990 threshold should just about hold.... but clearly, everyone seems to accept we're going to test 2010..  but that is more likely Monday...than tomorrow.

9.34am.. minor opening weakness.... and those Gold/silver bugs are getting another beat down... time for them to take another transquilser.

*targets remain Gold $1000/900s, with Silver 12/10... before a key multi-year floor is in.... and that of course would bode badly for the mining stocks.

9.49am.. sp'1985.. hmm, kinda interesting, Mr Market washing out a fair few long-stops this morning...

Latter day recovery looks VERY likely.  Eyes to the VIX.. for a turn.

Thanks very much

US equity indexes broke the three day downside run, with a rather important daily gain of 15pts to sp'1998. The sp'500 looks set to re-take the giant 2000 threshold, but a daily/weekly close much above 2010 will be a somewhat tough challenge.



The weekly 'rainbow' candle remains blue (it probably needs sp'2005/10 to turn green), but today, it importantly held the weekly 10MA. Just a simple review of the past few months is pretty clear.... the 10MA is typically a brick wall to the equity bears.

All things considered, new historic highs - at least in most indexes, look probable in October.. which of course begins next Wednesday.

Looking ahead

We have the usual jobless claims, PMI services, and Durable Goods Orders. That is plenty enough to give the market an excuse to move in the early morning.

*next QE is not until next week.

Autumnal shadows of disappointment

Now... for something rather different.

The last two days have been somewhat difficult for yours truly. The market hasn't been the problem this time... no...its Google.

No doubt, most of you know (at least those not using ad blockers) that I have a contract with Google. Yesterday, I got an email from Google telling me I had 'invalid ad clicks', and that Google had suspended my adsense account.

There are 3 possibilities...

1. One of you have been giving me 'sympathy clicks' (as support.. .which I have NEVER asked or advocated), and Google has decided that is one too many.

2. A click-bomber. One of my readers has felt so vilified and outraged at something I've said, they have repeatedly clicked my adverts, knowing that Google would flag my account as suspect/fraudulent.

3. Google have simply decided to terminate my account (for whatever reason).. and are keeping all un-paid money.

I've been building up a wheel barrow of funds since spring 2012, and in one fell swoop, Google have now locked my adsense account, and I am unable to withdraw ANY of the advertising revenue which I have earned across the last two years.

We're not talking about a huge amount, but its a 4 figure number, and such income was something that had partly helped inspire me to keep posting.

Personally, I almost hope its the second reason. The third, that Google have simply decided to lock me out and take TWO YEARS of accumulated/un-paid earnings is even worse, and utterly contemptible.

Yesterday, I replied to a standard 'appeal email'... various questions, but ironically most of the questions can only be answered from information contained within my adsense account, which I am LOCKED out of. Go figure that twisted shit huh?

As of today, Google sent me another email, and formally rejected my appeal, and they have closed my account. That might sound inconsequential, but they have a wheel barrow of my money, and have effectively told me... 'no.. the money you've accumulated since spring 2012 is not yours now, and you are banned from the adsense program for life'.

Moving forward

I've never asked for anything, from anyone since I first posted here in Feb'2012. No donation buttons, no nothing. Hell, I have even felt it overly bold in just asking the occasional webmaster/blogger to link my page to theirs.

Considering this weeks Google mess, I will very likely move to a subscription model within the next few months. No doubt this will really piss off a great number of you. I ain't much happy about it myself, but I'll be damned if I'm putting in 40/50hrs a week for absolutely nothing... ohh, but its not nothing...

*If only you had any idea the amount of emailed complaints/whining I regularly get about daring to highlight Oscar Carboni videos... or to dare suggest Gold/Silver prices might continue to fall. Gods damn... the sheer audacity of me!

Thanks very much

Across the last few years I've had some very supportive emails/messages from people across the world, and I'm very thankful for that. Along with the linked support of a few other bloggers (hello there... Chartrambler, McVerry), running these pages has been generally a great experience.

However, If some maniac has indeed 'click bombed' my pages, costing me a valuable business contract with Google, then I will be glad to take my content private, I don't want any such twisted piece of social garbage having continued free access to my posts.

Ohh, and a special message to the faceless bureaucrats at Google, the click-bombers, the insane gold/silver bugs, and the legion of internet trolls who will forever reside in their parents basement.....

Goodnight from a disillusioned London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +15pts @ 1998. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside into early next week. The big issue is whether the 2010s can be re-taken.. and held above.




All indexes put in rather strong turn candles today, and it bodes for at least another 1-2 days of upside.

As ever though, considering the broader upward trend on the weekly/monthly cycles, there remains high possibility of new historic highs for most early as next week.

a little more later...