Monday 26 March 2012

Stupid Bears

I'm bemused by the equity markets of the last few years. Its largely been a waste of time for the average retail trader since the late 1990s. Over a decade lost of precious time, never to be recouped. Only a somewhat crazy person would wish to be part of this high-frequency and government manipulated nonsense.

However, what does really get to me, is the sheer stupidity in the bear camp. Ohh, and I count myself in that group, not right now (I am still Long), but certainly..most of the time. How many times does the Bernanke need to appear, causing a rally, before the Bears know to not be short ahead of it?

The bears ARE right...but also gravely wrong.

The market declines are generally hard and fast...but oh so brief. The 2008 collapse wave lasted barely a year, and here we are, and its now 3 full years of what is a general mega-ramp, from sp'666 to 1416. Sure, we had two big declines, the 2010 and 2011 summer declines, but as brief..and the bounces back made them almost impossible to trade for anyone lacking psychic/magic powers.

The Bears, remain the realists. They do see the truth behind the lies, behind the money printing of the Bernanke...but truth sure doesn't matter in the western capital markets. It seems that only brief breaks in the delusion allow the market to show a glimpse of where it would probably be, were natural forces allowed to fully operate.

I've posted a lot about the monthly cycles lately, I'll post up two Fib' charts which I believe are very important for the remaining bears to seriously worry over....

IWM, monthly, fib levels

A pretty simple extrapolation - and I'm certainly not the only one who has suggested it. IWM looks set to break the important 86 level, and then make a challenge for 100/105 by late June/July. That level would equate to roughly SP'1550. No bear can dare suggest we are not in a very consistent uptrend.

SP, monthly, fib levels

The 1440 level will be challenged soon, maybe even by the end of this week. Certainly, we could fall back a few percent from there, but even then, we're still likely to break 1440 by mid April. In my view, any series of closes over 1440, and 1550 becomes a given, within the 3-6 month term.

So few Bears remain

The Bear camp lost a few more today no doubt. There really can't be many left. Three years of what has largely been pain and...more pain, and here we are today, with another handful of dirt rubbed in the face of those still holding short positions.

I sure as hell won't be one of them, last week was absolutely clear. The bears lack the energy - if that's the right term, to break this market down. Perhaps by Sp'1550 the market will be so exhausted, it'll be pretty easy to start the next cascade. Regardless, that is almost certainly many months away.

For those still holding short, I have to ask...are you really not looking at those monthly charts I keep posting?

   one of the remaining Bears.

Breakfast with Bernanke

A pretty impressive start to the week for the bulls.

Bernanke getting coverage on the clown channels this morning certainly helped inspire what was originally just  a marginally interesting up move.

IWM, weekly...

As noted recently, the monthly cycles are very bullish, and now we have the weekly cycles all supporting the bigger picture target to sp'1550 /IWM 100/105.

More later in the day.

April will be Pivotal for the Metals

So far March - and indeed the year, has been a bit rough period for Gold and Silver. Rather than the much touted moves higher that many of pro-metal websites have predicted, the Metals are still slipping lower.

Silver, monthly, 2yr outlook

Silver looks very weak, and looks set for a challenge to break its November low of 26. If 26 does fail, then my original target of $20..and even $17.50 are within range.

Right now, only a move above $40 could it be said that Silver is decisively on a new up cycle, with a third attempt to break $50.

Gold, monthly, 2yr outlook

Gold remains stronger than Silver, but its still in a near term decline. Right now, the long term trend/channel remains intact. A break below $1500 would be hyper-bearish, and it'd likely snap straight down to $1400 within days. I would also believe that if $1500 fails, then $1200 is also a given, although that level would likely take until the latter part of this year.

Long term, the metals remain the ultimate trade

So I am certainly still bearish on the metals for most of this year, and maybe even into 2013, yet the long term outlook is very clear.

I remain super bullish on the metals in the long term. Especially silver which has systemic problems in lack of supply within the next 10/15 years.  A combination of both Gold and Silver - in physical form, remain the ultimate hedge against the printing maniacs of the worlds central banks.