Tuesday 18 June 2019

Printing threats and trade hopes

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.0%) at 2917. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.2% and +1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a case of 'post fed depression'.




It was a day of threats and hopes. The day began early with the ECB's Draghi issuing overt threats to spool up the printers, a mere six months after they were halted. Trump wasn't happy with that...

Equities opened broadly higher, and with the gains a little shaky (opening 30/60min black candles)... this appeared...

... and that resulted in a secondary ramp, with legacy gap of sp'2913/32 being tagged. The afternoon saw moderate chop, leaning a touch weak into the close. Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -1.3% to 15.15.

Meanwhile, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley was making the mainstream cheerleaders a little bit twitchy...

Wilson... on the far right.

Wilson's call for a 10% drop within the relatively near term is a bold call.

The sp'2600s won't be easy, never mind anything in the 2500/400s. With just eight trading days left of June, the latter looks a stretch this July/August, unless we settle back under the monthly 10MA, currently at 2783.

Wednesday afternoon won't be boring. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the equity bears, and that should carry across into Thursday.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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