Monday 3 December 2018

Tick of the clock

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +30pts (1.1%) at 2790. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -9.0% at 16.44. Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2840/50 zone, before cooling into year end.




US equities began the shortened four day week on a strong note, with the sp' breaking an early high of 2800, but then the sellers appeared. The rest of the day saw a great deal of chop, with the market managing to hold the bulk of the gains. Volatility was naturally weak, settling in the mid 16s.

Tick of the clock

Lets be clear, all Trump and Xi could agree on was to do nothing. We've a 'trade truce', as the US tariff hike on $200bn of Chinese goods - due Jan'1st 2019, has been postponed for 90 days, keeping the existing tariffs at 10%, rather than increasing to 25%.

90 days from Dec'1st takes us to Fri' March 1st. The clock IS ticking... and that means the trade uncertainty will continue well into 2019. The equity/capital markets will not like such uncertainty, and it bodes for another sig' wave lower, probably under the Oct' low of sp'2603.

If we do find our way into the sp'2500s, that will be high motivation for the US President to come to a mid/long term agreement with the communists. 


Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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